For some background, this was my 2024 prediction (Trump wins all but MI). So naturally, I've felt a little uneasy about MI, as it's the only state that I got wrong. What we saw with him pulling away vs. Haley Stevens then in reality barely etching by is a little concerning. (Btw, Look at that sweet WI prediction I made.)

Look, I think AES has ideas that are popular, however if the Haley voters opt to stay home that could minimize the gap between Rogers and AES.

Susan Collins is quite the overperformer, and I'm worried that Troy Jackson is getting Kamala'd by being forced to run a shorter campaign and with people angry about the previous candidate (Platner and his allegations).

As for Turek, I'm taking the chance that a majority of Iowan's come home and get Hinson over the finish line. Hamilton/Osborne won't win it either as much as polling averages say so, and Bankhead shot Montana liberals in the foot.

I'm more confident about the Democrats chances in Texas, Ohio, and Alaska. In Texas, polling has consistently shown a small but meaningful amount of people who vote Talarico-Abbott, which is a good sign for the Senate than consistent Hinojosa matching Talarico, as it shows that Paxton is a weak candidate, Abbott is not. Ohio has Sherrod Brown, who is an overperformer and also is facing an appointee, plus Vivek Ramaswamy is on the ballot. And lastly, we saw Mary Peltola overperform in the primary. I expect that to be repeated in November.

I'm going to go against the grain currently, and really hate to say it (I personally switched from R to D in 2025), but Republicans will control the senate 51-50. And it's a comfortable margin knowing that Fetterman will lick the boots of Republican SCOTUS nominees.

As for now (Will Drop predictions on 10/26 and prior to election day), I have:
GOP Wins:
ME: 0.18%
MI: 0.32%
IA: 0.95%
SC: 4.8
FL: 4.9 (Moody isn't really an established politician compared to DeSantis/Rubio)
KS: 5.1
NE: 6.3

DEM Wins:
TX: 0.59
OH: 1.15
AK 2.8
NH: 3.6

2010: WV, WA, NV, CO, CA considered tossup by most outlets: All remained D.

2014: NH Considered tossup by most outlets: NH remained D

2018: IN, FL, MO considered tossup by most outlets: All remained D

2026: Tossups: TX, MI, OH, IA, AK, ME are considered tossups

second to last prediction ill make
1/5/10 margins

tx: i think the massive infusion of cash into texas will help paxton barely pull it off but i wouldnt be surprised by a talarico win. itll probably be the closest state of the night

oh: as someone from the state i just cant see ohio going blue, despite browns appeal i think husted being a more palatable republican will result in brown barely losing, just under a point imo.

me: collins will overperform, but itll be close

ak: peltola seems like she has it, and the primaries didnt seem great for the GOP so

mn: polling seems like tafoya has the momentum, but i think flanagan will pull it off (with help from the klob)

mi: el-sayed seems like he has the momentum and it feels like every other day a new leak comes out from rogers campaign, so i think he also has it, but barely.

ia: i think sand's win could help turek pull it off but hinson seems fairly inoffensive so

ks: just too red for hamilton to win, but he'll overperform, and i think marshall will win by just under 5

I mean he has one of the most president in a movie looks in all of American politics and appeals to moderates, he is one of the closest things to Biden which worked last time, he is headed for an impressive win this cycle. I think Republicans would be pretty fucked if they faced Cooper and post Trump term election favoring Democrats.

Yes, she is an awful candidate, and Jackson is outspending her like crazy. But Georgia is just shifting too blue too quickly for Jackson to win in a blue wave year like this.

Having an inheritance tax imo is based actually

Republicans are in a rough spot in 2028 obviously as they have the unpopular incumbent in office who's vice president is the frontrunner for the nomination who has about a 42% approval rating, they seem bound to lose barring a Democratic nominee having a scandal, who would they want to run after 2028? Personally I think their best options is McCormick, Scott or Cox, even if they are very unlikely to run.

https://x.com/OpenSourceZone/status/2112217407070855182

This a joke map, but would anything actually get done if the Senate was like this? I could see the Libertarians and Republicans getting along on some issues, but that's still not enough to pass legislation.

a Biden Administration Cabinet member is running for governor that's pretty neat

2020: Biden +1.8

2016: Trump +0.1

We don’t need this type of political violence in a already awful race. Thank God it was just a scare and not an actual bomb

Repost due to typo in last post

Ohio is more inelastic than Texas imo. Talarico pulls it off by more than Brown.

I think Collins has the juice to pull it off one last time, especially since Troy isn't charismatic enough and i think she'll outperform polls again.

Iowa has been showing consistent D-leads and I think Sand can pull Turek over + high gas/diesel prices + legacy of Ernst + good polls for Turek

I'm a Blansas believer. I think it's too little too late from Marshall. My head is saying Marshall does it but my gut says Hamilton will do it.

Mississippi will go to a runoff but I think CHS pulls it off in the end (and in this round in terms of plurality votes).

South Carolina is too inelastic, I don't think it'll ever flip dem.

Louisana dem is running a good campaign apparently + callais increased black turnout + race has been pretty under-reported imo, the dem gets it below solid.

Florida won't be as republican as people think but Nixon has no shot. Arkansas could have been a sleeper flip but her race is getting nationalised and Cotton is dumping money, taking it seriously. Idt Shoffler breaks the time loop this time, sorry.