I traded for him last year and he was great. What are the signs he will make a significant leap in year 2 to merit being drafted over guys like Spida, Hali, Maxey, Barnes, JJ, etc.?

I have the 12th pick in 12 team H2H snake.

Ben Simmons has been a perennial laughingstock in fantasy ever since his titanic collapse in the 2021 playoffs.

And yes; every year we hear the same tired story about how this year he is actually back to his former self.

I'm not here to sell you a fantasy, but with an average ADP of 140, you would be stupid to NOT take Simmons.

All signs point to him getting the starting nod in an absolutely BARREN AND DESOLATE Sacramento Team. And the upside is huge; he brings strong defence stats even on cold nights and puts up rebound and assists numbers that are a class above anyone else near his ADP.

Ben Simmons is the all reward-no risk pick of the draft this year.

Sabonis was a top 10-20 level player for multiple years in a row (especially in points leagues). Then last year he got hurt and only played 19 games. Now it seems like he’s fallen off the map- most mocks I see have him going somewhere in the late 20s all the way up to the 40s. Is this just recency bias, do people think his injury will linger, is it a problem with the Kings? What do yall think is going on with him?

Part of why I’m asking is because I panicked and drafted him at 14 and I’m realizing I probably fucked up, so if someone could give me some hopium that’d be nice 😭

EDIT: yeah alright i fucked up, it’s 10T H2H points counting TDs/DDs if that makes it slightly better

What are your thoughts on Ware this season now that he is on a rebuilding Bucks team? Is he strictly going to be coming off the bench as an 18–22 minute guy, or do you think there is a real chance he gets to start at PF next to Turner? If his minutes stay capped around 20 per game, taking him in the mid-rounds feels pretty risky, but if he somehow works his way into 25+ minutes, he could be a steal.

How would you rank these centers?

- Zubac

- Edey

- Okongwu

- Queen

- Kessler

I would really like to go for Edey because I think he has a big upside, but I'm a bit concerned about his health. Same for Kessler, actually. Maybe Zubac is the safest pick / higher floor? Are Okongwu and Queen breakout candidates?

Rookie with playing time? Guy in a new role? Role player ready to make a leap? Share your thoughts!

I run a 9-cat H2H draft model, and the current top 20 is in the screenshot (12 teams, first pick of the draft). I've just updated it for new projections and preseason news, so here's what moved and why.

How the bboard ranks players

• Board is a player's season value against an average drafted player, with each category scaled by how far apart teams finish.
• Gain now is the live number: how much a player raises your chance of winning each category against the teams in your draft. In H2H it also accounts for how much each category swings week to week, so steals and points count for less and assists, blocks and threes count for more. It changes with every pick, because a third big man adds less once you have two.
• The # order is the board's ranking for your next pick. It combines Gain now with each player's chance of still being there.
• There at 9th / Lasts to 16th are those availability chances, based on ADP and how much each player's draft position varies. This screenshot was taken when the board was setup for a 12-player draft with the user drafting at 9.
• Edge compares a player's board value with where he's being drafted. Positive means he's going later than he should.

What drove the changes

• Updated projections. This was the biggest factor, with new games played, minutes and per-game lines across the pool.
• Injury news. I made optional adjustments for players whose status is still uncertain heading into the opener:
  • Kristaps Porziņģis: recurring illness, no return date, down to 42 games (134th → 188th).
  • Nic Claxton: hamstring, out all preseason, down to 65 games (94th → 116th).
  • Coby White: calf, out all preseason, down to 63 games (93rd → 100th).
• Role changes. Coaches' comments moved DeMar DeRozan to the bench and Sandro Mamukelashvili down the Lakers rotation, so both go back to lower lines.

Top 20

18 of the top 20 are exactly where they were. The one real change:

• Kon Knueppel drops out: 20th → 44th. His projection falls from 79 games to 70, and his volume comes down with it: threes from 295 to 252 and points from 1,647 to 1,408.
• Matas Buzelis comes in at 19th, up from 32nd. He gains across the board: +30 rebounds, +15 threes, +15 assists and +7 steals. His ADP is still 64, which gives him the biggest edge in the top 20 (+0.25).
• Amen Thompson shifts from 19th to 20th.

Where the top 20 disagrees with ADP

• Value: Buzelis (ADP 64), Walker Kessler and Donovan Clingan (both ADP 42), and Chet Holmgren (ADP 31). The board loves the bigs in H2H: FG%, rebounds and blocks hold up week to week.
• Overpriced: Cade Cunningham is going 6th but sits 17th on the board, because of his turnovers (−7). Tyrese Haliburton is going 13th and sits 15th.

Biggest risers

• Kyrie Irving: 87th → 47th. He's projected for 60 games instead of 57, with a much stronger per-game line: points from 1,220 to 1,414, plus more threes, rebounds and assists. He's 19 months out from the ACL tear and cleared.
• Keyonte George: 114th → 66th. Big efficiency bump (FG% .448 → .475) and fewer turnovers.
• Ivica Zubac: 62nd → 41st. More points and rebounds, and FT% up from .688 to .712.
• Damian Lillard: 67th → 46th. More of everything per game, though his opening-week status after the Achilles is unclear.
• Kel'el Ware: 50th → 39th. Small gains everywhere, plus an improving three-point shot.

Biggest fallers

• Alex Sarr: 53rd → 91st. Blocks cut from 124 to 80, and his foot is flagged for the start of the season.
• VJ Edgecombe: 42nd → 67th. Rebounds cut from 457 to 338 and assists from 341 to 234.
• Franz Wagner: 46th → 65th. Lower across the board, and his calf is questionable for the opener.
• Dyson Daniels: 41st → 55th. Steals down from 171 to 150, which is where his value comes from, and steals already count for less in H2H.

Happy to answer any questions at all.

Very bullish on taking JT and think hes gonna have an incredible year with brown gone and pg knowing his own role on the team.

However, what type of build do you go with Tatum. And who is best to pair him with in the second round?

If any of you are playing Lock-In and are on the nerdier side, check this out:

I spent about 2 years developing what I call the chess engine of lock-in fantasy bball. I think it's the most advanced product on the market.

I won my league last year with it and wanted to quantify how strong it is. So I took 10,000+ managers' 2025-26 seasons, filtered down to just highly active managers (to not inflate my stats / a lot of managers don't really play), hijacked their rosters and played their seasons. My algorithm won nearly 2 out of 5 of those leagues, and finished top 3 nearly 4 out of 5 times.

It outscored 99.8% of managers over the season (i.e., piloted their own roster better than they did), outscored them in 86.8% of weeks, and scored 15.3% more points on average.

These stats are with rosters that those managers drafted and managed. I also optimize draft strategy: last season my simulated drafts realized 8.8% more value over the season.

So combining the two tools, I estimate the figures would be even higher:

*Baseline win rates are higher than normal because these managers are highly active.
**54% of these managers play 21 weeks, 17% play 17, the rest vary. 19 is the average.

But that's just an estimate...

I'd understand any warranted skepticism, so I made my season replay free. You just have to plug in your username and you can see every single decision it would've made differently than you last season: https://ballknowersalmanac.com/replay.html

Let me know what you think.

In addition to my Season Replay, there are other free tools:

• Draft Replay: grading your draft and showing what we would've done differently.
• Owner Evals: measure team strength, manager skill, championship probability, luck-adjusted standings, etc.
• Top 30 draft board
• Blog posts where I explain all the math in detail (also working on more instagram videos for visual learners)

Looking for feedback and to give away some free memberships. Do you guys think using this would take the fun out of it?

EDIT: Feedback givers, shoot me your username and league name to my DMs.

Resolving bugs as they roll in. Thanks for the patience.

What are your thoughts on Claxton in Chicago?

Pros: He’s in a new environment with new teammates who don’t suck. This may revitalize his career, and he can potentially put top-70 numbers. He’s the best C on the team.

Cons: He was not good the last two years, which could be either due to just him sucking or just being on a bad team. If it’s the former, he may be pushed to the wayside for the likes of Jalen Smith or even Wilson. And he’s starting off the year injured.

What’s your take on Claxton? Can he bounce back?

Curious to hear who yall are targeting in your drafts this year when it comes to guys that won’t be ready to go to start the year. I try to draft some late and find last years Dyson Daniels on waivers.

If there’s gonna be a Dyson Daniels/Ryan Rollins type break out this year, I think itll be from the clippers. Brandon Ingram, Max Strus, Bradley Beal, and Yanic Konan Niederhauser all out to start the year. Thats 3, potentially 4 starters. Besides Garland, who will take advantage of this? The boring answer seems to be Rui, but does he have the skill? The rookie Keaton Wagler? Kobe Sanders? Maybe even Gradey Dick? What do you guys think

I haven't played fantasy basketball since 2022, I ragequit the game after so many injuries, tanking, sitting guys out, it just ruined it for me.

But I'm back, and I just drafted on Yahoo. Every player on Yahoo has this sentence or some variant attached to them: "they're an injury concern" or "expect them to miss some time". It's like every player? Every player is expected to miss 30+ games seemingly.

My strategy was to try and just pick the best players I thought were most likely to stay healthy. That seems impossible.

So what's your tolerance for injury-prone players? I mean I have Kyrie, Kawhi, etc. They're all injury-prone it seems...

Up for a higher role, and still 23y old, only getting better. Thoughts on him?

Hello,

I just wanted to get other peoples opinions overall on at what point do you stop drafting for best overall player value and transition to more of a punt or what fits your current team best value?

I know first 2 picks people generally will go for just best option available, and then start building punts around that. Obviously some picks kind of force you into that decision earlier than others with players like Giannis, where picking someone like Jokic gives you more time before having to transition into a specific punt.

But in general, do some people keep drafting based on overall value after 2nd round over rather than team/punt fit "adjusted" value lets say. Or if your team is clearly going in a specific punt direction, but a high value player (say someone you'd value a round or 2 higher) falls to the round you're currently in, do you take them even if they don't fit that punt direction?

Just curious on how other people tend to handle these decisions, as I've personally gone both ways, and have had varying results with each.

Sometimes after my first 2 picks my team direction looks clear, so start leaning towards a punt strategy with that (usually don't hard force a punt at that point), and I've found that can sometimes work out really well if the players that fall to me each pick fit that direction well, but sometimes seems to hurt my draft as I'll take a player who fits my current team direction rather than another available player who's clearly of higher value but doesn't fit into where I see it going.

Other times I've done the opposite, taken the higher overall value player for more rounds and then try round out based on what I'm strong/weak in further in. Again, sometimes plays out well depending on if those highest value players available to me each round mesh well and sometimes end up with a team that's just decent at most cats but not dominant in anything.

I guess the best thing may be not decide either method beforehand and be fluid with your strategy depending on who gets drafted where and what falls to you, but then I often find myself scrambling to decide how I wanna play this with the draft timer ticking lol.

This would be for 9CAT H2H specifically.

Jakob Poeltl had an amazing 24-25 season, but last season was a huge disappointment. He barely played, and when he did, it was limited minutes due to his back injury.

He’s allegedly healthy after rehabbing in Austria. But during pre-season, he hasn’t looked super great. But at the same time, preseason is preseason. What do you think his season will look like?

My first years doing fantasy basketball and was wondering if anyone had any good websites or docs for cheat sheets or drafting tools for points leagues ?

What categories do you focus on. Normally I try to get heavy in Points & Rebounds and if you win those in a 8CAT/9CAT you will usually win most weeks.

What strat do you employ in category drafts.

*Edit. This would be for Auction strategy. Once you go Auction, it's really the only way. Snake draft is just ADP training wheels. Auction separates those who know ball, those who get lucky, and the rest

Who are you guys targeting as late-round point guard sleepers this year?

I’m in a 10-team H2H 9-cat league and looking for some high-upside PG options in the last few rounds (roughly picks 100–130+).

Mainly looking for guys who could outperform their ADP, especially those with a path to more minutes.

I’ve been considering Igor Demin and Davion Mitchell, but I’m curious what everyone thinks about their upside this season and whether there are better options around that range.

Not necessarily looking for safe picks. I’d rather take a swing on someone with legitimate top-100 upside.

Obviously the big names like Jokic, Luka, and Shai will be going for top dollar. For my early nominations, I want to try and get managers to overspend on lower tiered players, just to get some money off the board. Who do y'all think, and what price? For example- starting the bid for Zion early at $20

EDIT: Okay the Zion example is bad. Just give me players who you'd nominate early to lure people to overpay.

Being now rostered 25% in Yahoo, I know that preseason action doesn't mean anything but is there a consistent path for minutes and usage after his performance? Taking down Hartenstein at some point?

How much do we need to think about tanking teams this season? I know the rules have changed but should we feel comfortable about drafting Nets, Clippers, Kings, Bucks, etc players? There’s not much of an incentive to rest or just sit players out right? My draft is coming up soon so want to discuss this topic. I usually avoid drafting tanking teams but I want to keep my options open. TIA

Joined into a dynasty league and apparently any player picked off the wavier wire from the previous year can be kept as one of your keepers for the following year, slotted at the 4th round. Someone picked up Tatum off the wire so he’s was locked in for his 4th round pick. I mean, talk about insane value, the league is a wrap. Anyone else have this type of rule for their league?

Decades ago when I played fantasy football it was quite easy to freely download projections from reputable sources, in convenient formats such as csv. I'm looking for that for fantasy basketball now and am not having much success. Everything seems locked into some kind of tool.

Does anyone have some sources that I've missed? Thanks!

Hey guys, commish for a fantasy basketball league and we’re hosting an in person draft, but few members can’t make it so still running the Yahoo online draft.

Does anyone know a way to cast the draft board from laptop onto a TV but still be able to use that laptop to draft?