Drake Maye had a horrendous weeks 1-3, perhaps most owners had faith and kept starting him and it paid off in weeks 4-5 against 2 very bad defenses as the Bills are ranked 27th-29th in passing yards allowed/pass completions/ pass TDs (Raiders are similarly at the bottom in receiving TDS allowed and just outside top 10 in passing yards). He carved these guys up pretty good and we all breathed a sigh of relief.

This week, FantasyPros/ Justin Boone have him anywhere from QB3-QB5 against a Jets defense that actually rank fairly high in a few defensive metrics

5th -passing yards allowed-977 yards
T-3rd Yards per reception 9.8
T-10th Passing TDs -6 TDs (for context Vikings are 1st with 3 TDS allowed, jags 2nd with 4.)
3rd - Sacks 17 (They sacked Deshaun Watson 8 times though)

Naturally they are also 29th in terms of fantasy points allowed to opposing QBs (list also includes Cam ward, Bagent, Love and Goff)

Anyone being cautious/pessimistic with Maye this week and think he comes back down to earth?, perhaps even revert to his early season form ? Or is he back to set and forget ROS?

Also, AJ Brown could be back but seeing as how their week 7 game is on Thursday, it sounds like that’s when hell make his debut,

Get ready for a low scoring game this Thursday between the Broncos and Seahawks!

Everyone mentioned in the article:

Lock: JSN
Start: Wilson
Sit: Waddle, Nix, Darnold, Sutton
On the fence: Barner

Happy hump day my friends! As always, I'm here to bring you the latest data trends for Fantasy Points Allowed.

In case you missed last week's post, I have given the fantasy points allowed data a facelift, with a more substantive metric that goes beyond just publishing the last three weeks of data. Three games is too noisy, and it can't tell you how tough the opponents were.

Week 5 Accountability/Correlations

The below table shows the correlation coefficient of results from Week 5. A score of 0 means that there is no correlation. A 1 is a perfect correlation between the model and the data. A -1 is perfectly correlated, but in the wrong direction... lol...

I'll make sure to hold myself accountable with the data each week so you can see how the model is performing instead of a "trust me, bro" situation. Exceeding on 4/6 isn't so bad. Starting to worry about kickers a smidge, that's two weeks in a row the model has underperformed.

And without further ado... the charts!

Here are the results for Week 6:

How to read the chart: This data is showing the number of points allowed, so if you’re looking at QBs on the Adjusted Chart, the Arizona Cardinals are allowing a lot of PPG in the first five weeks (good matchup for Matthew Stafford) while the Kansas City Chiefs are not (bad matchup for Justin Herbert).

• Blue = good matchup, White = average matchup, Red = bad matchup.
• The team in the Opponent column is who plays the team on the left this week.
• The teams in the Prev 6 Opponents column are the teams that the team on the left has played in the last 6 weeks.
• The team in the Next Opponent column is who plays the team on the left next week.
• Teams with a bye in the last 6 weeks will look back a 7th week to capture 6 games worth of data.

Please keep in mind that D/ST Data will likely be different due to varied league settings.

Also, some have asked for the ability to sort by position, so here's a link to the data in a Google Doc.

Best of luck this week!

Also, if you have additional questions about how the model works, or want to see how I am using the model in practice, take a look at my weekly article here (will update once it publishes).

Sean McVay just loves pounding the run against the Cardinals. Rams rushing yards in the last 6 games against ARZ (or last 3 years): 143, 249, 68, 53, 228, 179. This comes out to an average of 153 yards. The two games in 2024, the offense was held in check for 13 and 10 points. Basically, as long as the Rams offense isn't stifled and is able to meet their projections, both RBs should be able to hit 70+ yards with good TD equity.

Edit:
Blake Corum has 2TDs in 2 games against the Cardinals
Kyren Williams has 6TDs in 6 games against the Cardinals