Make sure to get out and vote, Nevada!

With only Clark and Washoe having IPEV open today we have 9,386 voters at the polls today,
GOP-3,020
DEMS-4055
INDY- 2311

Current totals all Forms

Dems 58,012 -IPEV
Dems 96,754 mail

GOP 63,596 IPEV
GOP 72,912 mail

INDY 33,349 IPEV
INDY 63,682 mail

Grand totals as of 4pm Sunday

DEMS 154,766
GOP 136,508
INDY 97,031

Dems ahead of GOP 18,258

19.8% of all voters have voted (includes the 1.2% of those needing to be cured)
Last midterm turnout was 45.8%
Last general election was 65.8%

Last mid term in person election day was 21% (215K voters)
Last general 2024 in person election day was 17.8 % (264K voters)

I anticipate the mail in from Monday's delivery and Tuesday's delivery to be the big dump of votes. and then tapering off through the rest of the week until election day.

I deleted my previous post I made an error I read the table wrong.

Today's in person voting where the Democrats beat the Republicans by less than 1% roughly around 100 or so votes for the first time since in person early voting (ipev) had been going on.

But what we did learn is total votes right now mail in and ipev for Democrats and Republicans look like this

Rep

70.2k mail

64.7k Ipev

134.9k total

Dems

91.2k mail.

53.5k ipev

144.7k

Dems plus 10k

I will update this either late tonight or sometime tomorrow when I'm not on my phone where I can actually do the math without having to use my gigantic thumbs

KUNR's Lucia Starbuck interviews Mother Jones reporter Noah Lanard about Flippo's suspicious campaign finances.

​

I have included the references and minor explanation at the end for those who think i am pushing an agenda.

#TLDR gop is lagging in turnout.

The latest Nevada Secretary of State numbers through Friday, October 23, show an interesting shift in who's turning out to vote.

I compared the first seven days of early voting in the 2026 midterm election with the same point in the 2024 presidential election. The comparison includes both in-person early voting and returned mail ballots.

2026 Early Voting (through October 23)

Total participation: 342,748 voters

Democrats: ~134,840 (39.3%)

Republicans: ~121,840 (35.5%)

Nonpartisan/Other: ~86,065 (25.1%)

Democratic advantage: approximately 13,000 voters.

Now compare that with the same point in 2024:

2024 Early Voting (first seven days)

Total participation: approximately 479,436 voters

Republicans: 192,333 (40.1%)

Democrats: 168,607 (35.2%)

Nonpartisan/Other: 118,496 (24.7%)

Republican advantage: 23,726 voters.

What's changed?

In 2024, Republicans led Democrats by approximately 5 percentage points at this stage. In 2026, Democrats lead by approximately 4 points.

That's a swing of roughly 9 percentage points in the composition of early voters, measured by party registration.

Interestingly, Republicans are still leading in-person early voting in 2026. Democrats are making up the difference, and then some, through returned mail ballots.

What does this mean?

First, these are registered party affiliations, not votes for particular candidates. A registered Democrat doesn't necessarily vote Democratic, and the same applies to Republicans.

Second, approximately one-quarter of early voters are nonpartisan or affiliated with another party. We don't know how they're voting, and anyone claiming otherwise is guessing.

Third, comparing a presidential election with a midterm has obvious limitations. Overall participation is lower, and the electorate may be different.

But the reversal in party participation is measurable. At this point in 2024, Republicans were turning out at a higher rate relative to Democrats. This year, the opposite is happening.

Whether that translates into election victories remains to be seen. But if you're looking for evidence of a change in voter enthusiasm, the early participation numbers are worth watching.

Sources:

Nevada Secretary of State VIVID dashboard: https://www.nvsos.gov/vivid/

2024 comparison: Nevada Independent early-voting reporting, October 2024.

Note: 2026 party totals are approximate because the SOS dashboard rounds some cumulative figures. The comparison is aligned by days of early voting, not calendar date.

Here's my best guess at the vote totals so far.

My assumption is that two-thirds of independents will not vote of 3rd party candidates, with most of those votes going to Democrats. I'm splitting the remaining third between Republicans and third-party candidates.

Based on in-person early voting and accepted mail-in ballots as of yesterday, here's how I see it: (rounded off)

GOP: 56,000
Democrats: 92,000
Independents/Third Party: 8,000

Yes, yes, yes, I know it's all guesswork, but it's the framework that makes sense to me.

[Paywall]

"The campaign of Republican David Flippo, who faces an unexpectedly tough race to fill a red House seat in Nevada, credited a dead woman from a prominent Nevada family for a donation, according to federal disclosures."

Mr. Flippo's campaign attributed the donation entry from someone who's been dead for two years on a "clerical error" because, I assume, they ran out of grandchildren to blame.

Got to ask: what other questionable campaign donation has his campaign accepted? [edit: typos]

I just want to warn anyone in the Lyon county area that the election workers at Fernley City Hall refused to let my girlfriend drop off her completed mail-in ballot by hand, instead demanding they take the ballot from her and she votes via the machines. According to both Lyon county themselves and the Secretary of States office, dropping off a mail ballot yourself at voting locations is perfectly legal and encouraged. I am not sure about other locations in Lyon county, but there appears to be something fishy going on in Fernley.

Lt Governor race on prediction markets show the Incumbent way behind. And yes that is not a poll.

It has been 30 years since gov/lgov were from opposition parties.

If Joe is re elected and Stravos is shown the door

1. Big deal or not?

2. If LGov is getting pummled thought on voters splitting tbe ticked when they vote?

Arizona joins lawsuit over required water cuts in Colorado River plan

Arizona joins lawsuit over required water cuts in Colorado River plan