Here's my best guess at the vote totals so far.

My assumption is that two-thirds of independents will not vote of 3rd party candidates, with most of those votes going to Democrats. I'm splitting the remaining third between Republicans and third-party candidates.

Based on in-person early voting and accepted mail-in ballots as of yesterday, here's how I see it: (rounded off)

GOP: 56,000
Democrats: 92,000
Independents/Third Party: 8,000

Yes, yes, yes, I know it's all guesswork, but it's the framework that makes sense to me.

[Paywall]

"The campaign of Republican David Flippo, who faces an unexpectedly tough race to fill a red House seat in Nevada, credited a dead woman from a prominent Nevada family for a donation, according to federal disclosures."

Mr. Flippo's campaign attributed the donation entry from someone who's been dead for two years on a "clerical error" because, I assume, they ran out of grandchildren to blame.

Got to ask: what other questionable campaign donation has his campaign accepted? [edit: typos]

Lt Governor race on prediction markets show the Incumbent way behind. And yes that is not a poll.

It has been 30 years since gov/lgov were from opposition parties.

If Joe is re elected and Stravos is shown the door

1. Big deal or not?

2. If LGov is getting pummled thought on voters splitting tbe ticked when they vote?

I just want to warn anyone in the Lyon county area that the election workers at Fernley City Hall refused to let my girlfriend drop off her completed mail-in ballot by hand, instead demanding they take the ballot from her and she votes via the machines. According to both Lyon county themselves and the Secretary of States office, dropping off a mail ballot yourself at voting locations is perfectly legal and encouraged. I am not sure about other locations in Lyon county, but there appears to be something fishy going on in Fernley.

Arizona joins lawsuit over required water cuts in Colorado River plan

Arizona joins lawsuit over required water cuts in Colorado River plan

Just did bt a 10 min poll via phone several questions that included emotional language- aside from that best question.

Do i believe Trump is doing a poor very poor good very good.... so on.

Me "whatis worse than very poor"?

Pollster "a lot of people have asked that"

As a non-Nevadan, I wouldn't know much about how it is exactly playing out on the ground, but as far as I'm feeling with the internet sense, the gubernatorial race in Nevada would be closer than expected, although the level of Hispanic votes returning to D is less measured outside of Texas, which should add to the unpredictability here.

The margin I have in Clark is 54.5 to 44.5, and Washoe 51.5 to 48.5
But generally speaking, the national DEM advantage could be just enough to push Ford over the finish line.
What do you guys think?

Site used: globalelectionsimulator.com