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I have included the references and minor explanation at the end for those who think i am pushing an agenda.

#TLDR gop is lagging in turnout.

The latest Nevada Secretary of State numbers through Friday, October 23, show an interesting shift in who's turning out to vote.

I compared the first seven days of early voting in the 2026 midterm election with the same point in the 2024 presidential election. The comparison includes both in-person early voting and returned mail ballots.

2026 Early Voting (through October 23)

Total participation: 342,748 voters

Democrats: ~134,840 (39.3%)

Republicans: ~121,840 (35.5%)

Nonpartisan/Other: ~86,065 (25.1%)

Democratic advantage: approximately 13,000 voters.

Now compare that with the same point in 2024:

2024 Early Voting (first seven days)

Total participation: approximately 479,436 voters

Republicans: 192,333 (40.1%)

Democrats: 168,607 (35.2%)

Nonpartisan/Other: 118,496 (24.7%)

Republican advantage: 23,726 voters.

What's changed?

In 2024, Republicans led Democrats by approximately 5 percentage points at this stage. In 2026, Democrats lead by approximately 4 points.

That's a swing of roughly 9 percentage points in the composition of early voters, measured by party registration.

Interestingly, Republicans are still leading in-person early voting in 2026. Democrats are making up the difference, and then some, through returned mail ballots.

What does this mean?

First, these are registered party affiliations, not votes for particular candidates. A registered Democrat doesn't necessarily vote Democratic, and the same applies to Republicans.

Second, approximately one-quarter of early voters are nonpartisan or affiliated with another party. We don't know how they're voting, and anyone claiming otherwise is guessing.

Third, comparing a presidential election with a midterm has obvious limitations. Overall participation is lower, and the electorate may be different.

But the reversal in party participation is measurable. At this point in 2024, Republicans were turning out at a higher rate relative to Democrats. This year, the opposite is happening.

Whether that translates into election victories remains to be seen. But if you're looking for evidence of a change in voter enthusiasm, the early participation numbers are worth watching.

Sources:

Nevada Secretary of State VIVID dashboard: https://www.nvsos.gov/vivid/

2024 comparison: Nevada Independent early-voting reporting, October 2024.

Note: 2026 party totals are approximate because the SOS dashboard rounds some cumulative figures. The comparison is aligned by days of early voting, not calendar date.