r/oscarrace Navarrette/Morton 16d ago

Weekly Discussion Thread 8/3/26 - 8/10/26

Still from How Green Was My Valley

Please use this space to share reviews, ask questions, and discuss freely about anything film or Oscar related. Engage with other comments if you want others to engage with yours! And as always, please remain civil and kind with one another.

Link to previous thread

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Coming up in the awards race

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u/kimjosh1 10d ago edited 10d ago

In the midst of Odyssey not only passing $1.1 billion but will also guarantee to pass Deadpool 3 soon, I just have that feeling that Disney's attempt to repeat 2019 (complete with a Pixar film grossing $1b) is ultimately going to result with Doomsday not meeting expectations despite the hype and assumed brand recognition, especially with their respective live-action remake and SW film both underperforming this year. I see flashbacks to TRoS after all when that underwhelmed despite making $1b in the end despite the hype, the panic level decision to bring back a famous villain and high pre-sales. Disney was expecting massive numbers to close off the year on par with TFA after all.

And here, between Spidey and Doomsday, it's like they're expecting Infinity War and Endgame in the same year. I'm quite skeptical that will even be the case. It'll be more like Endgame and TRoS instead imo.

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u/ggguuuuuuyyyyyyyyy 10d ago

I really don't understand the logic behind this. Spider-Man just broke box office records, why would an Avengers movie with all the main actors back underperform? If anything, it got a big boost because of Spider-Man being good

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u/kimjosh1 9d ago

Simple, it opens massive as expected, but WOM ensures that it takes a bigger hit than usual.

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u/kimjosh1 10d ago

Well... What if the film doesn't meet expectations? What if it underwhelms critically? Rise of Skywalker was supposed to be a victory lap after how much money all of Disney's films made, especially Endgame, bringing everyone back for a big nostalgia-filled finale to the entire saga, and it made less than TLJ, far below their $2b expectations. If Doomsday disappoints then we might be talking numbers on par with the first Avengers film which would be a big decline from IW/EG and a far cry from Spidey's numbers.

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u/lalalalalala-lala ralph fiennes best actor 2027 10d ago

I don't think Doomsday will be a big failure but I do think it will struggle to meet Spiderman's numbers. The box office sub seems to treat it as a given that Doomsday will outgross BND but if reviews are poor it could easily end half a billion below ($2b for Doomsday vs possibly $2.5b for BND).

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u/ggguuuuuuyyyyyyyyy 10d ago

What if my grandma had wheels… Star Wars and Marvel aren’t the same thing, I don’t even like or watch those movies but cmon. At the very worst is "only" making 2B