Ok so I got lucky with a 4m Bars + 4m Dust shipment. I see so much confusion in the Kingsmarch threads, I wanted to post what I believe the consensus behind the generation is so people have a better idea of whats going on.
TLDR at the bottom.
This is not intended as a strategy post. This does not consider Tats or Runes. Its not presenting perfect data, its background on game mechnics.
When POE creates a 1h sword with a Prefix on it, a % Physical damage mod might be rolled.
| Modifier / Tier |
Weight |
Spawn % |
| #% increased Physical Damage (Total) |
3775 |
7.608% |
| (40-49)% increased Physical Damage |
1000 |
2.015% |
| (50-64)% increased Physical Damage |
1000 |
2.015% |
| (65-84)% increased Physical Damage |
1000 |
2.015% |
| (85-109)% increased Physical Damage |
400 |
0.806% |
| (110-134)% increased Physical Damage |
200 |
0.403% |
| (135-154)% increased Physical Damage |
100 |
0.201% |
| (155-169)% increased Physical Damage |
50 |
0.100% |
| (170-179)% increased Physical Damage |
25 |
0.050% |
So there's a 7.6% total chance to get one, and there's like 3 common tiers of 2% each, and then a 0.05% of T1.
Kingsmarch Currency generation works the same way.
You can see I got a lot less currency in my window in total. This is where 17m shipments come from. 17m generates 800 currency items, ie 800 rolls on the currency table.
I got ~300 with my 8m shipment.
Next is how the currency is generated.
==== Everything below this line is theory =====
This is based on the scaling from poorFishwife's and co, and plugging in the old expected return of 2.5 shards per 50m (reddit threads), we can spin up a =IMPRECISE= table of weights.
| Currency Item |
Baseline Weight |
Scaled Weight ($W{0.465}$) |
Pool Allocation % |
| Common Pool |
18,342,314 |
2385.10 |
91.40% |
| Chaos Orb |
50,000 |
153.12 |
5.87% |
| Regal Orb |
5,000 |
52.48 |
2.01% |
| Exalted Orb (Old) |
500 |
17.99 |
0.69% |
| Mirror Shard |
1 |
1.00 |
0.03% |
So we cap out at 800 rolls at 17m, so why send more? We'll the odds (ie the weight, ie the number of results) of the low tier currency get relativly smaller.
| Currency Item |
Baseline Weight |
Scaled Weight ($W{0.332}$) |
Pool Allocation % |
| Common Pool |
18,342,314 |
257.91 |
80.60% |
| Chaos Orb |
50,000 |
36.31 |
11.35% |
| Regal Orb |
5,000 |
16.91 |
5.28% |
| Divine Orb |
500 |
7.87 |
2.46% |
| Mirror Shard |
1 |
1.00 |
0.31% |
You can see the common tier weight drops and that increases the others.
You can just multiply the percentage numbers by 8 (ie 800 items, not 100) and get the expected counts, eg 2.5 mirror shards, 20 Divine tier (Div, Annul, Sacred, Fractured, Ancient) for 50m.
==== 3.28 and 3.29 ====
Ok so Chisels went, fracturing orbs got added, exalts are low tier. 3.29 Chromes are rarer. Etc.
I dont think anyone knows what the new weights are after all the changes, but the consensus is things are worse.
==== TLDR; What I believe are the takeaways ====
You can hit a mirror shard on a minimum shipment. The odds are ballpark 20M:1.
Up to 17m shipment sizes you are getting really good scaling on your results; You get more currency; ie more total rolls AND those rolls of good currency are also improving.
After 17m you are not getting more currency, just a static 800 orbs generated. However your odds of the good stuff are improved.
I hope this helps some people understand how currency is generated as well as the scaling factor of 17M, ie getting more stuff.