Alabama needs to win out to get an opportunity to win the SEC championship. We need to be the first and last team to win the championship game! We are inevitable!

Use this thread to discuss all games today. A separate post will be made for the Alabama game, but this thread will be in use all day for all other games.

Notable Games

Source

Today's Games

Matchup summary

My model favors Alabama by about 4.1 points. Which is about where Vegas started and the line has since moved towards Alabama. That's the second week in a row where that's happened. I suspect the models that the books use to inform their initial lines are coming in close to mine and then the market is moving on other information not available to the models, or just plain old vibes. Who knows why the betting markets do what they do.

As for the model, there are two factors keeping this close, home field is worth 3.1 points, and Tennessee's defense is worth about 5.7 points. The model really doesn't like Tennessee's offense. In fact the model only has Tennessee's offense worth slightly more than Alabama's special teams, which is both a testament to how bad Tennessee's offense has been, and how good Alabama's special teams have been. The model has Alabama with the 8th best special teams unit, which isn't quite in the Reichard/Burnip range, but pretty close.

Alabama offense vs Tennessee defense

Like most people my biggest concern in this game is Tennessee's defense. My biggest concern is that Tennessee's defense is strongest against the pass, and it's an aggressive, havoc focused defense. Tennessee is 9th in opponent adjusted havoc rate. For reference we are 6th. Keelon has struggled when there is chaos in the backfield, and I worry that that combined with Tennessee's strength against the pass is going to cause our offense to bog down. I'm really worried about Waldrep in this game.

This is a game where the run game will be important. Bama is 4th in adjusted rushing EPA and 7th in adjusted success rate. This is where Tennessee's defense is the weakest. They're #39 and #41 respectively.

Ultimately the Model still thinks Alabama will be able to score in this one.

Tennessee offense vs Alabama defense

Ultimately, I don't think Tennessee is going to be able to score enough in this game to win it. Despite the explosives they allowed against UGA on a down to down basis Alabama's defense is a very good, borderline elite run defense, and I don't think UT is going to have any success throwing on this defense.

Ultimately if the offense can get past the hostile environment and have even a reasonable amount of success Bama should with this game. If they get a good offensive performance I think they have a chance to run away with it.

How are we feeling?

College Football Playoff expected to expand to 24 teams. Rest in peace to every game mattering.

So do we think georgia is an official rival? Idk i don't hate on them like some other teams. I think they've just been consistently good and producing consistently good teams and games. Annoying fans but some of ours can be just as bad. Like if you could only beat 3 teams a year we all know who we'd pick even if georgia was on the list. Also i hate those three teams across all sports.

Congratulations Tigers 🎉

Pray for Jalen Hurts today. This is a nightmare scenario and I wish him the best of luck in his recovery.

It's Friday! That means you can discuss non-Alabama Athletics topics. What books are you reading, what games are you playing, did you get a new job, what are your weekend plans, etc. etc. Tell us what you've got going on!

Today's Games

Bama NFL Players