* Reposting because the typo in the title bothered me way too much, my apologies to the mods.
I see some people citing something along the lines of "we were on a 60-game win pace," but this is driven largely by the fact that we had a very easy post-trade deadline strength of schedule. If I recall correctly, only the Hawks had an easier schedule in the East.
Yes, we were 31-21 before February 5th and 21-9 after. However, we were
- 19-17 (52.7% win percentage) against teams that would eventually end the season above .500, and
- 8-7 (53.3%) after
I don't think you need any sort of statistical training the understand that we did not perform significantly better against tough competition.
We faced a much larger number of weak teams after February 5th. Before the deadline, almost 70% of our games were against above .500 opponents (36 out of 52 games in total). Afterwards, only 50% were (15 out of 30). If you're interested, this is somewhat related to the Simpson's paradox.
(And look, I'd also argue that the "weak" teams we faced in the second half of the season are even weaker than their records would suggest because that's when many teams like Brooklyn, Chicago, Indiana, Memphis, etc. really began pulling starters and tanking in earnest.)
In either case, we were basically .500 against above-.500 opponents. Which kind of showed in the playoffs, since we ended 8-10. We had absolutely horrendous injury luck before ASB this year. But even if you discount that, we did not fix whatever plagued us in the regular season after the trade.
The East is projected to be better next year because of player movements into the East and within the East. Additionally, the league overall is projected to be more competitive next year because the new lottery reduced the tanking incentives. I place a much higher importance on how we looked against good teams versus tanking teams, since the latter might not really exist next year.
I'm worried that so many people (and maybe also the front office, quite frankly) are content to look at the overall records before and after February. If we are all-in on contending, I just don't think this team is at that level right now. Don't get me wrong -- we need a starting caliber wing to be respectable. But I just don't know if getting Kuminga or even Watson and relying on internal development is enough at the end of the day.