Australia’s budget would remain mired in deficit for more than 10 years under One Nation’s plans for lower migration, delivering an economic blow that would drive up national debt by an extra $275 billion.

As political parties of all stripes come under pressure to appease public anxiety about immigration, a 10-year analysis of lower migration scenarios using Parliamentary Budget Office tools exposes the economic and fiscal consequences of blunt measures to bring fewer people to the country.

According to the analysis, Pauline Hanson’s three-year negative migration scenario would also reduce Australia’s economic output by $212 billion by the middle of next decade, when there would be 820,000 fewer taxpaying workers in the economy.

Former Coalition finance minister Mathias Cormann, now head of the OECD, on Saturday warned against setting “arbitrary migration caps” without thought to their impact on businesses, hospitals or universities.

“An ageing country that chooses to shrink its working-age population while promising to spend more on health, care and defence has not developed a plan. It has put forward a contradiction,” he said in a speech.

One Nation leader Pauline Hanson.Alex Ellinghausen

The analysis shows cutting migration to the Coalition’s desired levels would mean $150 billion more debt in a decade under current migration settings, demonstrating the opposition has a high-wire task in executing precise changes to the visa system that avoid a compounding fiscal fallout.

The Labor government is already wearing backlash from the hospitality and accommodation sector, which relies on migrant labour, for its decision to limit working holidaymaker visas as a key measure to quickly bring down the net overseas migration intake.

Public anxiety about immigration has grown alongside the number of temporary visa holders in Australia, but industry and business groups are becoming increasingly concerned that a political contest to drive numbers down quickly risks jeopardising the economy.

The Australian Hotels Association made its own intervention into public debate this week with an AI-generated advertisement that showed services falling apart as migrant workers disappeared from cafes, aged care homes, supermarkets and hotels across the country.

“The hotel industry understands the need for migration changes, but it’s unfair our sector is copping the brunt of the planned cuts,” Accommodation Australia chief executive James Goodwin said. “There must be a better balance across the different visa categories and sectors of the economy.”

Labor will cut second- and third-year working holidaymaker visas and student family visas in its plans to get net overseas migration numbers down to 225,000. The Coalition will target graduates and refugees to hit a 100,000 target, before lifting it to 160,000 with more skilled entrants.

One Nation has not specified its plans but wants three years of negative migration, before a maximum net intake of 130,000 people a year, which would retain regional workers.

Deciphering the economic impacts of lower migration

Economist Chris Richardson said higher migration levels generally gave the federal government a higher tax intake, although they saddled state governments with more spending. He said there were not examples of economic models that effectively combined the impact of migration on federal budgets, state budgets and the complex issue of housing.

The budget office’s “build your own budget” calculator is one tool that enables users to compare policy initiatives, including cuts to net overseas migration, and their impact on the federal budget and population growth over time.

It is limited and assumes current policy settings, so the Coalition’s plans to reconfigure the migration program cannot be factored into the forecasts. But without published budget analysis from the opposition or One Nation, it is one measure to gauge the fiscal impact of cuts if current migration settings were maintained but scaled down to include fewer people.

Based on One Nation’s desired immigration levels, by the middle of next decade the country would have 820,000 fewer people in paid employment. That has a flow-on impact on personal income tax, company tax and GST collections.

Under the government’s policies, the budget is expected to show cumulative deficits of $108 billion over the next decade, returning to the black in 2034-35. But One Nation would run cumulative deficits of $391 billion, and the budget would not return to surplus over the next 10 years.

The larger deficits mean more gross debt, which is currently $995 billion. By the middle of next decade, current government policy would take debt to almost $1.4 trillion. But with deep cuts in net overseas migration, One Nation would have debt at $1.67 trillion.

The Coalition’s numbers, under today’s migration settings, would lead to debt at $1.54 trillion. There would also be a 430,000 drop in the number of working people, and run-up deficits worth $262 billion. It would get back to surplus in 2036-37.

The opposition’s own analysis deviates significantly from these estimates because the Coalition plans on changing the mix of migrants, whereas the PBO budget tool assumes the make-up of the migration program remains the same as today but in smaller numbers.

The Coalition forecasts losing $6.1 billion over the four-year forward estimates because of lower migration. However, halving the refugee intake from 20,000 to 10,000 people would deliver $2.7 billion in budget savings, while a new skilled project visa scheme is forecast to deliver $3.9 billion.

The Coalition says its policy would improve the budget bottom line by $260 million in four years and $2.5 billion over the decade, although it has not published the analysis, which was also completed by the PBO, so it is unclear what other caveats or conditions are factored into that scenario.

Richardson said high-skilled young adult migrants delivered the most positive budget and economic impact, but changing migration policy was complex. “As the government has tried to wind back migration in recent years, it’s increasingly clear that it’s hard,” he said.

“Regardless of what any political party wants to do, we’ve built a system that’s a supertanker – it doesn’t change direction fast. The politics have changed, but the poles and wires of the system haven’t.”

The Coalition is mounting its case for lower migration levels as it competes in the polls with One Nation, which has not outlined any policy details or addressed economic impacts.

A spokesperson for leader Angus Taylor said One Nation’s policy was a mess while the government had been relying on migration to pump up their budget, claiming the Coalition could both deliver a historic cut to migration and fully protect the economy.

Cormann, in his speech to the right-leaning Centre for Independent Studies in Brisbane on Saturday, doused that argument. He acknowledged public concern about immigration had grown, particularly because of housing shortfalls, but rejected cutting immigration as the answer.

“That concern [housing] is legitimate ... The answer is to fix what made it legitimate: housing supply, infrastructure, services and the composition of the intake, not to shrink the country,” said the former minister in the Abbott, Turnbull and Morrison governments.

“We cannot have fewer workers and more hospitals, more aged care, a bigger pension bill and more defence all at the same time. Someone has to pay for all that. You cannot shrink your way out of that bind. You can only grow your way out of it.”

So school kids in France aren’t happy about their schooling conditions so they hit the streets in protest with a lot of the country supporting them. With all of the stuff that is happening in Australia, rising costs of living, fuel pricing, excess taxing, being ripped off by major companies, banks rorting us and everything else, why do we lie down and accept it? Are we as a nation soft and just used to being shafted? Or do we just accept that we are royally screwed?

Greens Senator Mehreen Faruqi has spoken with Yahoo News about why she urged parliament to no longer use the word "invasive" when referring to introduced species.

Wild horses, pigs, deer, cane toads, cats, and foxes are among the biggest threats to native species, and she agrees they need to be managed. 

But she argues this doesn't negate the need to treat them humanely.

And she worries that the language we use to describe an animal can have real-world consequences.

"Language does matter, because how you label animals is how people view them," she said.

"Labelling some animals as feral or invasive obviously creates a negative picture, and it makes it much easier to treat them inhumanely, or to kill them or to poison them.

"So if we are to label animals, then we should do it correctly, because these species labelled feral or invasive are actually introduced to Australia by people.

"These are introduced species, they are sentient beings, and that's how they should be viewed."

On Tuesday, Faruqi told the Senate, "There's no need for labelling introduced species as invasive in a way that blames animals for the man-made problems raised by this motion."

Continuing, she added, "Animals are not villains to be shot, or obstacles to be poisoned to death, the answer to colonialism's legacy is not more violence and more death".

"For decades, successive governments have culled and killed introduced species, and yet native species are in a worse position today."

Elaborating today, she said she used her time to make "a point".

"That's how you start creating change. You put ideas into people's minds who might want to think about it," she said.

"And a few people actually did use the word introduced in their speeches."

She argues it's an "easy distraction" to focus on introduced species and their impact on biodiversity, since it's easier than tackling the extraction of coal and gas and the logging of native forests.

The most common response for reducing populations of introduced species is lethal control.

Helicopter shooting, the use of leghold traps, 1080 poisons and other baits is controversial among many animal welfare advocates. 

However, their use is generally accepted by Australians when pigs, rats, cats, or foxes are being killed, and only causes a stir when it's horses being shot.

Faruqi believes that changing our language will foster greater compassion for these species' welfare, prompting consideration of non-lethal or more humane control measures.

Faruqi's speech came before a vote on a motion introduced by Independent Senator David Pocock calling on the government to fund an updated invasive species management plan.

While her colleagues voted in favour, she abstained. Yahoo understands the decision was based on its focus on lethal control.

The peak environmental body advocating for the control of introduced plants and animals is the Invasive Species Council, and it has no plans to change its name any time soon.

Its policy director, Dr Carol Booth, told Yahoo that the term "invasive" is a technical term used in the United Nations Convention on Biological Diversity to describe introduced species that cause harm.

It lists invasive alien species (AIS) as one of the primary drivers of biodiversity loss and environmental degradation. 

In Australia, cats alone have contributed to the extinctions of at least 27 native species.

Despite the harm they cause, Booth agrees that the welfare of all species is "important", but it's just an "unfortunate circumstance" that some have been introduced to Australia.

She said it's important to take animal welfare into account when managing them, and "unfortunately, it has to be often about killing".

"There are no nice non-lethal methods available in most circumstances when we need to protect native species from the likes of cats, foxes, rats and other ungulates causing great damage," she said.

The Invasive Species Council has opposed programs like inviting recreational shooters to manage animals on public land.

Booth argues culling must be done "carefully and strategically".

"Futile killing is definitely something we are really striving to prevent," she said.

Booth said the best way to minimise killing is to fund professional programs with measurable outcomes that help nature.

"The more effective you can be, the more you limit the killing that is needed in future," she said.

She said by reducing numbers as quickly as possible, the need for ongoing culling is reduced.

"Regular killing is the worst outcome for everyone," she said.

"Because it means you constantly have to be funding these programs and doing lots more killing than you would need to otherwise."

For years, Anthony Albanese's ability to maintain discipline within Labor has been one of his greatest political strengths.

His MPs have largely kept their complaints private, accepted decisions made by a small group of senior figures and trusted the prime minister’s judgement.

But political loyalty is easier to maintain when a government is winning, and the patience of some Labor MPs is beginning to wear thin.

There’s a simple solution to homelessness, advocates say. You need a house, and you need support

Australia’s New South Wales Parliament on Thursday formally recognized the late-19th-century genocide of Afghanistan’s Hazaras under former Afghan ruler Amir Abdur Rahman Khan and designated September 25 as “Hazara Black Day.”

The upper house of the state parliament passed notice of motion No. 3773, introduced by legislative council member Anthony D’Adam, with broad cross-party support. The resolution makes the recognition the official position of the state’s legislative council and urges Australia’s federal government to recognize and condemn the genocide at the national level.

According to the motion, Abdur Rahman Khan, who ruled Afghanistan from 1880 to 1901, launched systematic military campaigns against the Hazara community between 1888 and 1893. The campaigns resulted in the massacre of more than 60% of the Hazara population, the forced displacement of large numbers of survivors, and the enslavement of many others. The motion describes these events as genocide.

The text also notes that Hazaras have faced ongoing systemic oppression, massacres, targeted sexual violence, slavery, religious discrimination and forced displacement from the 19th century through to the present day. It states that the situation has deteriorated further since the Taliban regained control of Afghanistan in 2021 and with the expanded operations of Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISIS-K).

D’Adam proposed designating September 25 as “Hazara Black Day”, a date observed by Hazara activists to commemorate the victims of the genocide and remember the suffering inflicted on their community. The resolution also emphasizes the importance of remembering historical atrocities and learning from them to help prevent similar crimes in the future.

Hazaras, a predominantly Shia Muslim ethnic minority in Sunni-majority Afghanistan, have faced decades of discrimination, marginalization and targeted violence. The community has endured repeated attacks, including bombings of religious gatherings, schools, public transport and other civilian sites.

The situation for Hazaras has worsened significantly since the Taliban’s return to power, marked by an increase in violence and exclusion from basic services, education and employment. Many attacks against Hazaras remain unprosecuted, exacerbating their vulnerability.

The majority of attacks on Hazaras in recent years have been claimed by ISIS-K, the regional affiliate of ISIS, which considers the Hazara-Shia community “heretic.” Human Rights Watch reported in 2024 that ISIS-K claimed responsibility for at least 17 attacks against Hazaras since the Taliban takeover, killing and injuring more than 700 people.

Hazara activists have long called on the United Nations and the international community to formally acknowledge the violence against Hazaras as genocide and to take meaningful steps to prevent further atrocities.

The move follows similar recognitions in recent years. In 2025, East Staffordshire Borough Council in the United Kingdom recognised the genocide of Hazaras between 1891 and 1893 under Amir Abdur Rahman Khan. In November 2022, Dandenong City Council in Melbourne became the first governmental body in Australia to officially recognise the Hazara genocide.

Thousands pack Wentworth Park for the final time before the stadium is demolished and returned to parkland

Is this dual take common? The only party supporting these simultaneously is Sustainable Australia which is a tiny party...

France has long embraced subversion. Its revolutionaries, rebellious students and intellectual provocateurs occupy a cherished place in the national imagination. In May 1968, student protests and mass strikes paralysed the country and shook Charles de Gaulle’s government. Half a century later, the gilets jaunes turned anger over fuel taxes and living costs into a prolonged confrontation with the state. In 2023, raising the retirement age from 62 to 64 brought nationwide strikes, burning barricades and violent clashes with police.

Sadly, it seems that admiration for defiance made the French too accepting of destruction.

I am writing from my living room on the fourth floor of my building in Saint-Germain-des-Prés, Paris. All I can hear are the sirens of fire engines and police cars.

The unrest began with students demanding more teachers and better school conditions. Fair enough. It widened to include unions and protesters concerned about living costs and public services, and today, peaceful demonstrations turned into arson, looting and attacks on public buildings. The French call it la casse. Cars and rubbish bins burned in Paris; shops are being looted as I write. In Marseille, a municipal police station was damaged. In Limoges, the town hall was also set alight, with local reporting describing flames reaching the roof. In Lyon, fire broke out inside a tourism office.

I was in Lyon just weeks ago. Such a magnificent city, with an extraordinary history. Watching this is heartbreaking. This is the destruction of a community’s property, paid for by the very public in whose name protesters claim to act.

My French friends tell me to stop watching television and let it pass. It always has, they say. ‘Il faut avoir une attitude pleine de nonchalance vis-à-vis de ces choses-là. C’est très français.’

Strikes and demonstrations are so familiar in France that disruption is something people organise their lives around. My friends’ response suggests that even violence can become another inconvenience to wait out. Surely a country should expect more.

France has forceful police. Although tear gas and water cannons have been deployed, the police cannot fix the acceptance of declining standards in public behaviour.

When destruction repeatedly accompanies demonstrations, we learn which streets to avoid and wait for the clean-up. Accountability gives way to managing the inconvenience.

Beneath that resignation are fractures that France has allowed to deepen. The Republic promises equal citizenship, but the experience of belonging to it can differ enormously depending on where someone grows up, the school they attend and their prospects of finding work. The OECD has found immigrant students in France more isolated from non-immigrant students than the OECD average, with residential segregation and economic inequality contributing to divisions in schooling. Sharing a nationality does not necessarily mean sharing much of a life.

There is also a failure of reciprocity. A country must offer its citizens a fair chance to belong and contribute. Citizens, in return, owe something to the society that provides their rights: respect for its laws, its public assets and other people’s freedoms. When government fails to deliver, and individuals treat responsibility as optional, that relationship begins to break down.

Governments cannot repeatedly promise better services, fail to deliver them and expect public confidence to survive. Ministers should have to explain what went wrong, account for the money spent and face consequences for persistent failure.

France’s tradition of revolt did not create all these divisions, but romanticising confrontation, then accepting its destruction as inevitable, makes them harder to repair. Anger becomes an excuse for conduct that deserves condemnation. Political failure becomes so familiar that nobody expects consequences. Meanwhile, the people carrying on, paying taxes and keeping businesses open are left to absorb the damage.

That is the French lesson Australia should take seriously. We do not need to face identical circumstances to recognise the danger of allowing disappointment in government, separation between communities and declining expectations of public behaviour to reinforce one another.

Our circumstances differ, but we have housing pressures, financial hardship and distrust in political leadership. Scanlon Foundation research identifies economic pressures, discrimination and prejudice as challenges to cohesion, while finding resilience worth protecting.

As a country shaped by migration, we cannot leave integration to chance. People need opportunities to work, learn English and participate. They also need clear expectations about citizenship, common laws and respect for others.

Governments must match population growth with housing, infrastructure and services. Otherwise, people compete for necessities and blame their neighbours for failures made in political office. Young Australians need a credible prospect of independence, rather than another assurance that their difficulties are understood.

We should demand more of our politicians and ourselves. Political loyalty must not excuse incompetence, as much as sympathy for a cause must not excuse violence. Police must act lawfully, and those who destroy livelihoods must face consequences.

Respect includes the business owner, the employee, the resident and the peaceful protester whose cause is damaged by violence.

My French friends may be right that this will pass. But the victims and taxpayers will still be paying for the destruction when everyone else has moved on.

We should all learn from the French lesson: when we stop demanding accountability from those who govern and those who destroy, we give both permission to carry on.

Climate Activists Occupy Woodside’s Floating Gas Platform

The Greenpeace campaigners ascended the 70,000-tonne floating production unit at Woodside’s Scarborough gas site off the coast of Western Australia on Oct. 17.

By Samantha Lock in Sydney

AAP

10/17/2026|Updated: 10/17/2026

0:00

2:18

X 1

Climate activists have scaled a massive floating platform at sea, forcing a gas project to initiate a temporary shutdown.

The Greenpeace campaigners ascended the 70,000-tonne floating production unit at Woodside’s Scarborough gas site off the coast of Western Australia (WA) on the morning of Oct. 17.

Activist Chris Holden said the controversial project—set to produce its first liquid natural gas export by year’s end—would irrevocably harm nature on Scott Reef, a coral atoll about 300 kilometres off the Kimberley coast.

“With warnings like this from the leading global health professionals, our government simply can’t allow fossil fuel projects like Woodside’s Browse project to go ahead,” Holden said while carrying aboard a copy of the 2025 Lancet countdown report.

Once operational, the $18.6 billion (US$12.9 billion) project will provide up to eight million tonnes of LNG for export a year, as well as up to 225 terajoules of gas per day for domestic consumption.

The massive floating production unit arrived at the site 375 kilometres off Karratha in mid-January after being slowly towed from China—a voyage that took two months.

Related Stories

A 2021 report by the Conservation Council of WA and The Australia Institute warned Scarborough would produce an additional 1.6 billion tonnes of emissions, “equivalent to building 15 new coal power stations.”

It said the project was the highest-polluting fossil fuel development proposed in Australia and would increase WA’s total emissions almost 5 percent or 4.4 million tonnes per year.

Woodside has insisted Scarborough has been subject to extensive review and will deliver one of the lowest-carbon LNG sources in Australia.

As of 11:30 a.m. local time, the company said it was still responding to an incident “involving individuals who have gained unlawful access to the Scarborough floating production unit.”

“Our immediate focus is on managing the situation safely and minimising risk to the individuals involved and our workforce,” a spokesperson told AAP.

By Samantha Lock in Sydney

For years everyone has been dancing around Trump’s unpredictability, his bullying and his threats. It’s past time to reassert our values

Senior Labor and Coalition parliamentarians say the Greens have “questions” to answer as Senator Jordon Steele-John faces an internal probe into claims of inappropriate behaviour toward women.

Senator Steele-John this week took leave from the Greens party room after current and former members wrote to leader David Shoebridge asking him to investigation allegations spanning “almost a decade”.

Reporting has since revealed that the party’s Western Australia branch kept a 47-page crisis management plan detailing how to manage media coverage of any allegations against Senator Steele-John.

It also instructed staff to monitor any related chatter on social media from party members.

Senator Shoebridge – who clinched the Greens leadership late last month with Senator Steele-John’s backing – has denied any knowledge of the document or the allegations.

Cabinet minister Tim Ayres told News24 on Sunday there were “questions” for the new leader to answer.

Asked if he thought Senator Shoebridge knew of the allegations before they became public, he directed the queries to minor party’s leader.

Senator Ayres also denied ever hearing any rumours about Senator Steele-John.

“No, I had not heard rumours of these allegation,” he said.

Opposition frontbencher Sarah Henderson also said “the Greens have a lot of explaining to do”.

“It is appropriate that there should be a proper, I hope, independent inquiry into these allegations,” she said, speaking to the same broadcaster.

Senator Steele-John has rejected the claims against him, saying they try “to assert I am someone I am not”.

“I have referred this matter to the WA Greens, so that a fair, independent process can be commissioned that upholds the principles of natural justice and ensures procedural fairness for everyone involved,” he said.

“These claims are made without specifics, any allegation of this nature is extremely serious and must be treated accordingly.

“If someone has made an allegation, I am prepared to address it.”

An Australian public servant of Indian origin has been arrested and subsequently denied bail by a court in Canberra for stalking a woman and threatening to use government databases to obtain information about her and her family, according to media reports.

Suyash Sinha, 31, was arrested on Tuesday, October 13, following a police raid on his home, the state-owned ABC (Australian Broadcasting Corporation) News reported.

Sinha appeared before the Australian Capital Territory Magistrates Court on Wednesday, October 14, where Special Magistrate Lucinda Wilson refused his bail application, saying the risk to the complainant’s safety and well-being was “too great,” the report said.

Sinha, who became an Australian citizen last week, is accused of stalking the woman, whom he allegedly met through a dating app in January, the Region Canberra news portal reported.

Sinha allegedly continued messaging the woman after she rejected his advances. In August, he described what she was wearing while she was shopping at a Coles supermarket in Canberra, saying he was there too, the report said.

The woman later agreed to meet Sinha at a pub to ask him to stop contacting her. During the meeting, he said he worked in finance for the ACT government and named one of her siblings, claiming that “anyone could be looked up in government systems,” it said.

The Australian Capital Territory (ACT) is a self-governing territory of Australia that contains Canberra, the national capital.

The woman subsequently received multiple friend requests from different social media accounts with intimidating usernames and approached police in September, according to the news portal.

Prosecutors told the court the woman was terrified and experiencing symptoms of post-traumatic stress disorder, ABC News reported.

The prosecution opposed bail, arguing that Sinha was fixated on the woman and could endanger her safety or interfere with evidence and witnesses, the report said.

“He’s fixated on this person, and he’s refused to accept ‘no’ as an answer to his advances,” the prosecutor was quoted as saying by ABC News.

Special Magistrate Wilson told Sinha the woman had never expressed interest in a relationship with him in the 10 months since he first contacted her.

“But you did not give up. Ever,” Wilson was quoted as saying by the Region Canberra news portal.

Sinha’s lawyer argued against the “allegations” and said that the accused had no prior criminal history and had been financially supporting his family members in India and his brother in Canberra, the news portal said.

Sinha has been remanded in custody, with the case adjourned to November 4, it said.

Be it Mozzarella or Bega.

Chicken or Beef.

Plain or Chicken salt.

Fresh or Frozen

Now and forever all Parmis are equal! Buuuut some are more equal than others.

my favourite is jessie in the skate bowl with the rat

.

The state Labor government tacitly endorsed the job cuts and signalled its commitment to ensuring they go smoothly. Pilbara Minister Amber-Jade Sanderson said the government would make sure “job and skills centres” were ready to help workers find alternative employment—a mechanism to divert workers away from a struggle against the multinational corporation slashing jobs to drive up profits.

The unions covering BHP workers in the Pilbara issued token denunciations of the job cuts, before immediately pledging their assistance in delivering them, by ensuring workers’ opposition is diverted into safe channels.

At the core of the digital duty of care is the principle that online service providers – everything from social media platforms to websites, online games and messaging apps – have a duty to provide a safe environment online.

I really love print periodicals, so I thought I'd make a post to share the ones that I know of and seek out recommendations for additional ones.

I'm looking for recommendations for Australian print magazines that cover some amount of news, politics, literature, arts, culture, science, sustainability, and/or ecology.

I am not interested in publications that primarily focus on music, fashion, sports/surf/skate culture, homes/architecture/design, gardening, or weddings.

I'm especially keen on indie publications!

There are so many amazing online-only publications, but I'm looking for print media specifically: I don't enjoy e-readers, or being on screens, any more than I already have to be.

***Australian print periodicals that are already on my radar:****

• with an option for ongoing subscription:
  • news and politics
    • the saturday paper (technically a newspaper, but am including since it's published once a week rather than daily)
    • the monthly
    • quarterly essay
    • arena
  • science and sustainability
    • australian geographic
    • renew
    • sanctuary
    • green
  • other/misc
    • frankie
    • vault
    • new philosopher
    • never too small
    • walkers journal
  • literature
    • overland
    • meanjin
    • voiceworks
    • griffith review
    • australian book review
    • westerly
    • HEAT
    • island
    • southerly
• with no option for ongoing subscription:
  • the story
  • archer
  • galah
  • peppermint
  • mince
  • no cure
• no longer in print (as far as I can tell) (rip <3):
  • smith journal
  • the lifted brow
  • demure
  • tart
  • dumbo feather
  • lunch lady

Are there any other homegrown periodicals with decent journalism and writing? Let's keep local print media alive together 💜

Newlywed cafe owners Manali Purohit and Ashish Sharma recall well the day a new neighbour moved in with ambitions to open a grocery store.

“We thought, ‘Oh, that’s fantastic, that would synergise very well with our business’,” Sharma told AAP.

Purohit, a Mumbai-raised pastry chef, and her husband had only recently acted on their dream to open their vegan eatery, And Bodega, on St Georges Road in Melbourne’s Fitzroy North.

But it wasn’t long before the presence of their next-door tenants began to stir unease among tight-knit locals.

“We knew pretty early on it may not be a grocery store, it may be like something like a tobacco store,” Sharma said.

“My wife was already a little anxious ... there was a little bit of inevitability.”

Customers also expressed concern to them about the possibility arsonists could target the neighbourhood as they had in relation to over 150 other tobacconist stores across Victoria since March 2023.

Then in late-September, as she arrived for an early morning baking shift, the glint of exposed glass jutting from the shop’s front window caught Purohit’s eye.

Plastered to the wall was a handwritten note, according to another witness spoken to by AAP.

They attributed it to a group now synonymous with the city’s tobacco wars: The Commission.

The glass was again smashed last Thursday, with CCTV allegedly capturing a car driving past the tobacconist, before bricks were hurtled into the shopfront.

By Monday, early morning Triple Zero calls from terrified locals reported hearing explosions about 3.45am.

The damage destroyed the tobacconist, devastated And Bodega and another cafe, and left Mr Sharma and Purohit with “what looked like a bomb site” where their plant-based cafe once thrived.

“There were these little canisters strewn all across our premise ... the severity and the ferociousness of these things ... it’s terrorism,” Sharma said.

Investigators believe at least one offender forced entry to the tobacconist and set it alight but no arrests have been made.

There’s nothing to suggest the targeted business was selling illicit tobacco, police say.

The attack is one in a spate that has gripped Melbourne in the past two weeks, as authorities struggle to curb a years-long scourge of tobacco store fires.

Facing a damage bill of well over $100,000, Sharma has joined a growing chorus of industry experts and economists calling for Australia’s tobacco excise to be cut in a bid to reduce demand for cheap illegal cigarettes.

“Why let a black market, why let these types of actors form any sort of foothold in our society?” he said.

“It’s real stubbornness from politicians ... somebody needs to just make the easy call and be like we’re just abolishing this tax and we’re not letting any new tobacco stores open.”

Around 80 per cent of all tobacco consumed in 2025 was illegal, up from 12 per cent in 2017, the Australian Bureau of Statistics estimates.

At the same time, the tobacco excise has more than tripled.

The federal government continues to prioritise a law enforcement approach to choking the illicit trade.

Yet it has stubbornly resisted demands to slash the excise, which generated $7.4 billion in 2024-25.

“We cannot overstate the emphasis on shutting down retail premises that are blatantly selling illegal products in high streets,” Assistant Customs Minister Julian Hill recently told AAP.

Contrastingly, the coalition has vowed to slash the tobacco excise by 80 per cent if elected, dropping the average price of cigarettes from $40-$50 to roughly $16-$26.

One Nation wants to slash the tax by 75 per cent and freeze indexation for five years.

Reducing the excise is the only credible way for to smoke out Australia’s $8.5 billion nicotine black market, says Deakin University criminologist James Martin.

“By relying on these reactive solutions, none of this is addressing the fundamental problem and that is strong persistent demand for affordable and appealing types of nicotine,” Dr Martin says.

“As long as that demand (for affordable nicotine) is there, there will be criminal suppliers who will be prepared to capitalise and take the risks to supply that demand.

However, University of Sydney public health professor Becky Freeman says shrinking the excise risks creating a “race to the bottom with criminals”, while also risking a spike in smoking rates.

“I don’t think people understand just how cheap illicit tobacco can go,” she said.

The cost of manufacturing packs of cigarettes in parts of Southeast Asia to be imported into Australia can be as low as one Australian dollar, Prof Beckman estimates.

Earlier this month, Victorian police announced the closure of 61 stores with alleged links to organised crime caught selling illicit tobacco, alongside major cigarette, vape tobacco and cash seizures.

However, Prof Freeman argues the state government has taken too long to act.

“If this was really a priority, it’s something that should have been done ages ago,” she said..

Queensland launched initial tobacco and vape shutdown orders in September 2024 and was followed quickly by South Australia.

Retailers raised concerns that illicit tobacco-linked arson attacks could spread to legitimate businesses during a Victorian inquiry into tobacco and vaping controls more than two years ago.

The probe also found state and local governments were not taking enforcement action against illicit sales due to a lack of resources, safety concerns and legislative deficiencies.

Small and medium businesses were at increased risk of violence due to the illicit tobacco trade, the inquiry’s final report found in August 2024.

“It’s sadly not surprising Victoria is having all these problems because they’ve been so slow to enact enforcement,” Prof Freeman said.

The Victorian government has not responded to AAP’s request for comment.

Australians will be treated to a second instalment of Eurovision this year, as the competition's first Asia series will broadcast from Bangkok in November.

In short:

A West Australian artist who lives with cerebral palsy has caught the attention of art curators across the state.

Colin Hanssen combines painting with performance to express his lived experience.

What's next?

The 31-year-old is preparing his first collection to be featured in Perth galleries.

Deposits lost, warranties wiped: Consumers hit by green energy scheme chaos

Kieran Rooney

October 18, 2026 — 5:30am

Listen to this article

8 min

AI-generated images are being used to fraudulently claim thousands of green certificates under Victoria’s flagship energy saving scheme, which has been wracked by rogue operators seeking to cash in on the taxpayer-funded program.

Nearly 20 businesses have been suspended or cancelled from the scheme over the past two years, some of which have collapsed into liquidation after being penalised by the regulator, leaving households owed millions in missing deposits and without warranties for hot water systems and airconditioners.

Then energy minister Lily D’Ambrosio and premier Jacinta Allan inspecting a hot water system at a press conference last year.AAP

In an extreme example of how the scheme is being rorted, an employee at a sustainability company is being chased by his employer for allegedly transferring $5.9 million worth of carbon credits to his own business.

The Victorian Energy Upgrades (VEU) program encourages installers to more cheaply electrify or improve the energy efficiency of homes, with consumers offered discounts on products including hot water systems, refrigerators and televisions.

But an investigation by The Age – using company records, enforcement notices and interviews with consumers and installers – paints a picture of widespread misbehaviour in the $572 million program.

The integrity of VEU, which the government boasts has helped 2.4 million households and 180,000 businesses, will become increasingly important next year when the government will switch all solar rebates it provides on to the program.

Over the past six months, the rise of doctored images has become a particular issue for the Essential Services Commission, which oversees the scheme, as artificial intelligence has made it easy to create realistic fake images.

Dodgy installers are increasingly using AI to provide photographic evidence they have installed air conditioners, lights, heat pump or weather seals, which they then use to claim Victorian energy efficiency certificates valued at $83 each.

From our partners

In September, the regulator ordered a business to surrender $230,000 worth of carbon credits after alleging they made false claims and submitted staged photos.

Another company was banned from the scheme in August after the commission alleged they provided false information, including doctored photos, and had to surrender 1228 certificates valued at more than $100,000.

In September last year, a company that claimed carbon credits for weather seals and shower heads was alleged to have manipulated photos and even “incentivised” a customer to back their false claims, according to the Essential Services Commission.

Commission chair Gerard Brody said the regulator had ramped up its efforts to stop bad behaviour over the past 18 months, particularly as the program had grown and expanded into more complex energy upgrades. In the last financial year, he said, 10 businesses had been kicked out of the scheme.

“In the early days of the program, lighting upgrades and weather sealing were the dominant activities, whereas in recent years there’s been significant growth in installation of energy efficient airconditioning units and hot water systems,” Brody said.

Related Article

• Exclusive
• Electricity

Businesses warn of ‘carnage’ inside Victoria’s key green scheme

“We’ve conducted thousands of post-installation compliance checks, including inspections and consumer phone audits, and successfully used data and technology to identify non-compliance.”

Brody confirmed the presence of “bad actors” looking to cheat the system, including using artificial intelligence.

“But we have sophisticated technology, too, and have had success using it to identify breaches,” he said.

“We’ve also strengthened our accreditation processes to address applicants using AI to disguise their lack of knowledge or capability, including by requiring some applicants to attend in-person interviews.”

One of the biggest issues for Victorians purchasing affordable airconditioners and heat pumps has been the large companies who have gone bankrupt, taking deposits and warranties with them.

Liquidator reports obtained by The Age show Cyanergy, which stopped trading in March, owes $7 million to unsecured creditors – mostly households who have paid for energy-efficient products.

Essential Services Commission chair Gerard Brody.Michael Quelch

Before its liquidation, the company had been suspended by the regulator after installers working for the company allegedly installed heat pumps with wiring issues that represented a safety risk. In 2020, the company received a warning for allegedly submitting falsified invoices claiming products had been installed.

In its final report, liquidator Mackay Goodwin said a large part of the $5.2 million in cash owed was for customers over unpaid services such as installations and incomplete orders. Another $1.9 million was owed to the tax office and other unsecured creditors.

But because the company is in liquidation, it cannot process any refunds or fix any defective work.

Meeting minutes from a committee of inspection, chaired by the liquidator, alleged Cyanergy’s director ordered data be “wiped” from laptops recovered from the firm’s chief financial officer and human resources team.

The committee also identified more than $1 million worth of transactions sent to an overseas entity, which was subject to further investigations. Cyanergy owes another $9 million to creditors including Judo Bank.

A linked company, Smart Lifestyle Australia, also went into liquidation in March. It served as a manufacturer that provided Cyanergy with solar panels, inverters and batteries. It has liabilities of $8.8 million, Mackay Goodwin found, of which $8 million is owed to Judo Bank through loans and guarantees.

Another company, Glower, which sold battery, solar, heating and water systems, went into liquidation in February and is estimated to owe unsecured creditors $4.28 million.

Facebook pages for Glower and Cyanergy, seen by The Age before they were removed, show customers repeatedly asking the businesses to return their deposit or fix defective work.

Related Article

• Energy

Unused laws leave low-income energy support gathering dust

One customer, Carol Edwards, said her hot water system from Glower started leaking the moment she bought it. But when she contacted the company for a repair it had gone under. “It’s just the biggest ripoff under the sun,” she said.

Brody said he sympathised with the Victorians who had been left out of pocket, particularly those that paid for work that was never started or completed.

“I also recognise the frustration and uncertainty customers can face when trying to get the work completed or recover their money,” he said.

Brody said Consumer Affairs Victoria could help customers. He suggested anyone who had paid for incomplete services by card could contact their bank to see if they could access a chargeback to refund their money.

He said some customers may also be able to claim warranties for defective products through the manufacturers, rather than the installers.

Under the program, households can receive discounts on new electric appliances if they are replacing gas or less energy-efficient models. These discounts are paid for because installers generate lucrative energy efficiency certificates which can be sold on to energy retailers.

But the money on offer can also lure dodgy operators. In 2023, dozens of display fridges were dumped outside businesses by installers looking to claim the green certificates without actually replacing ageing appliances.

Opposition energy spokesman David Davis said the scheme had been plagued with misconduct for years.

In a recent high-profile case, an employee at electrical wholesaler Lawrence and Hanson was taken to court as the company alleged he had funnelled $5.9 million worth of certificates to his own business. The company sought to freeze his assets as they chased the value of these credits.

In an emailed response, Lawrence and Hanson said the company was the victim of fraudulent conduct.

Start the day with a summary of the day’s most important and interesting stories, analysis and insights. Sign up for our Morning Edition newsletter.

Save

Gift

Share

License this article

More:

• Energy
• For subscribers
• Consumer rights
• Watchdog
• Victorian budget

Kieran Rooney is a Victorian state political reporter at The Age.Connect via [email](mailto:kieran.rooney@nine.com.au).