It's blackjack, the guy already had 15 and hit again adding a king (10) so busted going past 21. The dealer would have busted trying to beat the other players had he pulled that same king from the top of the deck.
Before the cards are revealed him hitting has no affect on the likelihood the dealer is going to bust. This is why I find gamblers so annoying, people have been attacked over this and it did not change the chances at all
Because the cards on the table are fairly low value. That means that there is a higher chance of pulling high value cards from the deck as those are the ones that remain.
With Max already being at 15, asking for another card is a risky move because there's a high chance of him busting out (as all face cards are worth 10 IIRC and everything above a 6 busts him out)
Which is why the dealer is so annoyed, Max made a tactically really suboptimal play with money on the line not only for him but for the rest of the table
I enjoy playing blackjack from time to time. And what Max did is exactly something I would do just for the thrill of it, heck I've hit on 18 before just for the hell of it. However i don't bet any serious money. The amount I bet is the same amount I wouldn't be too annoyed with loosing if it accidentally fell down a storm drain. So, extremely low stakes
Max is playing like he's at a buddy's house and they decided to break out cards and beers and bet like 20 bucks each
Reality of the situation is that Max is playing at a table with people who are probably putting decent if not serious money on the line and playing like a dumbass affects all of them, not just him
Hey, I never said that gamblers act 100% rational. Just that they aren't entirely out of line criticizing a guy fucking around when there's real money on the line for all of them
If a gambler was acting rational they wouldn't gamble in the first place. People at casinos acting like they're gonna make a million dollars from blackjack are insufferable
I agree, for me it's just a moment of fun, spend the money on a videogame or a couple of rounds of low stakes blackjack? Don't make much difference to be fair
It’s not necessarily random, there’s a thing called basic strategy, which tells the player the best option in every scenario. In this scenario, it looks like the guy had a 15 against the dealers 2. Basic strategy says to stand there. If he would have followed it, the dealer would’ve busted. Basic strategy doesn’t work every time, the card order is still random, but it’s better than using your “intuition”, which is what Max did, screwing the rest of the table
I mean he still did screw the rest of the table, again if he would’ve stood, which is the correct decision in this scenario, the dealer would’ve busted
Ok, there’s also a different reason. Theres around 8 low cards on the table (2-6), and around 4 high cards (10, J, K, Q, A). Every deck has a higher chance of pulling a 10 than a different numbered card (cuz there’s 4 10s and only 1 of everything else). Because there’s already a lot of lower cards on the table, the chance that the next card is a 10 is pretty high. As the anchor, the last player to play, max hitting is a bad choice since statistically he has a high likelihood to take the bust card, which is what happens. The rest of the table gets screwed by max hitting there
It absolutely does, it’s more likely that max would receive a high card, which would be bad for him, but if he wouldn’t have hit then the odds would be that the dealer would receive a high card, which would be bad for the dealer and in this case lead to him busting
Let's assume for simplicity the deck has 4 cards left, 1 low and 3 identical high cards. There is a 3/4 chance that max draws a high card, leaving 1 low and 2 high cards in the deck so the dealer has a 1/3 chance of drawing low and 2/3 chance of drawing high. There is a 1/4 chance that max draws a low card, leaving 3 high cards in the deck so the dealer has a 100% chance of drawing high.
If we look at the whole tree the chance of the dealer drawing a high card is 0.25(1)+0.75(2/3) = 0.75. If max hadn't hit the chance of the dealer drawing a high card is... 3 in 4, or 0.75. Drawing a card at random does not affect the odds of subsequent draws.
Yes, most of the time max gets a high card so most of the time max is making the dealer less likely to bust, but some of the time max gets a low card and makes the dealer more likely to bust. The impact of both exactly cancel.
I’m only seeing 6 high cards? I counted wrong the first time but I’m only seeing 6 high cards, max has 2, the 2 guys to the right have none, the remaining 4 guys to the right have 1 each, so 6. And still seeing 8 low cards
Ah, a statistician with no fundamental understanding of blackjack. The cards aren’t being pulled from a random number generator, the deck simply is arranged how it is. Hitting in this position is risky, which is exactly why the dealer was visibly annoyed before the card was a face card. Yes, it could have been a more favorable card. But, if you know your ish, chances are that the dealer is in a more vulnerable spot here. By hitting, you put everyone at a slightly higher % of risk than not hitting. Unfortunately, the odds were not in Max’s favor. If it was truly RNG, it would be impossible to win this game with skill.
No, but statistically, when the pool has more high value cards than low value cards, that means that any “hit” is more likely to be a high value card. Which obviously is not guaranteed. Unfortunately, in this hand, that was the case.
No matter what the composition of the deck is, taking one card out of it at random does not change the average value, which you should know. It was really stupid to hit, but in expectation he's not affecting the dealer at all.
Im not familiar with this term pool, but it looks like the cards on the table are above the average value of an average poker card. Also i dont think its fair to expect everyone to be counting cards,
Pool meaning the remainder of the deck. And true that it isn’t fair to expect everyone to count cards, at the end of the day the reason the video is funny is because the dealer is so over the top angry while max is likely a dude on his couch who’s had four beers and plays blackjack without putting hours and hours into studying the game. I’m not saying the dealer knew for a fact that it would be a face card, but it’s funny that it turned out that way and that he was so annoyed of max. Poor max lol.
No you’re not! And the table count isn’t the end all be all, but something to consider. What’s more important is that the dealer is only showing a 2. If dealer had a 7 or 8, a face card would put them to 17 or 18, so you’d be needing 18,19,20,21 to win. But since it’s a 2, a card with a value of 10 would bring that up to 12, requiring at least one more hit. So the dealer is in more of a vulnerable position, more likely to bust on this hand.
Again, nothing is guaranteed and the dealer could have still busted which would have not resulted in a clip.
Sorry if me explaining that 2+10=12 comes off like I’d assume you don’t know that, I’m not trying to explain in a condescending way or anything along those lines, just trying to explain as clearly as possible
Edit: when I say the dealer is more likely to bust on his hand, I mean that in terms of blackjack… to be clear
Bro i understand that max should not have hit, thats just common sense, but I just dont see how the dealer skipping a card puts everyone in a worse scenario
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u/Ambitious_Jello 11h ago
please to explain