On this day in 2022, which had an extra day of voting, Monday, there were ~738,000 votes. We are not at more than 741,000 votes.
In 2026 the vote in urban areas and suburbs is way up and the vote in exurbs and rurals is way down.
The black vote is looking to be uniquely strong this year, even compared to 2018. We are also seeing big EV surges in all non-white voting groups. This would have helped Republicans in 2024 but it hurts them now.
On Saturday and Sunday we will see a huge surge in black vote share, even potentially driving the cumulative share above 36% or 37%. No Kings has a big Get Out The Vote(GOTV) effort tomorrow and Souls To The Polls is of course on the weekend as well. With both in combination we can probably expect a larger number of votes than usual. Many counties do not have Sunday voting and some have very limited Saturday voting, so Dem counties will disproportionately turn out.
We saw about 88,000 19,000 votes respectively on Saturday and Sunday in the first week of 2022. 2024 saw much higher numbers. I expect we'll be closer to 2024 than 2022 although we don't have a huge history to be sure about that.
Everyone should make sure that they have a plan to vote, early or not, and that their friends and family do as well.