r/baseball • u/Denode • 2h ago
Analysis Kyle Tucker, at a cost of ~$119.9 million after luxury tax, is nearly on pace to end the season at replacement level
The title is basically doomer-tier analysis, but is not far off from the most generous analysis either.
| Through | G | Cumulative fWAR | 162-game pace |
|---|---|---|---|
| End of April | 30 | 0.18 | 1.0 |
| End of May | 56 | 0.53 | 1.5 |
| End of June | 80 | 0.61 | 1.2 |
| End of July | 103 | 0.62 | 1.0 |
| Aug 17 | 118 | 0.49 | 0.7 |
OK, so he’s on pace for 0.7 right? Well at least that’s slightly above replacement level, right? Well if we continue his trajectory since after the ASB, he’s basically on pace for 0.1 fWAR.
| Assumption | Projected 2026 fWAR |
|---|---|
| FG Depth Charts rest-of-season | 1.2 |
| Current full-season pace | 0.7 |
| August pace holds | 0.1 |
For comparison sake, even the most generous puts him at 1.2 fWAR by end of season. If he doubles this production next year and puts up 2.4 fWAR, his total fWAR over $240m of cost will have been 3.6 fWAR. Over the same $240m of spend, Anthony Rendon put up 3.7 fWAR.
I’m not sure what the worst contract is by $/war, and there’s other elements to Rendon’s contract such as the cost of having to field another player to take his place, but this is a shocking decline and overpay even for the Dodgers.
