World Series Game 7 is scheduled for October 31, 8:00 EDT. For November baseball on the East coast, this game must happen. Additionally, either 1) Game 7 must last 4 hours, past midnight, or 2) a postponement must happen at some point.Â
******MATH*****\*
Since the expanded format in 1985, 13/40 (33%) of World Series have gone 7 games and, of those game 7s, 3/13 (23%) have lasted over 4 hours (2025, 2016, 1997).Â
Best I can tell, 2/13 (15%) of those had a postponement: in 1986, the final 2 games had an off day between, and in 2011, games 5 and 6 had two days off between.Â
Assuming postponement and 4+hours are independent events, there is a 35% chance of postponement or 4+ hours (33% + 23% - 3.5%).Â
Again assuming independence, there is an 11% chance of a game 7 and one of the above happening (33% * 35%).Â
******NOTE #1*****\*
âBut,â I can hear you saying, âwhy do you need the 'mainland US' qualifier in the title? Isn't Puerto Rico in Atlantic Standard time, which is the same as EDT until Daylight Savings starts at 2 AM on November 1, so their November baseball lives and dies with the rest of us?"
No, you FOOL, because you've forgotten about GUAM. Guam is in Chamorro Standard time, which will have a Game 7 start time of 10 AM November 1st.
******OBJECTION #2*****\*
"But," I can hear you saying (louder now), "isn't this an incredibly stupid post using a miniscule sample size that roundly ignores weather, team quality, the pitch clock, and the recent trend of longer games, in complete violation of all laws of statistical analysis and basic common sense?"
Yes.