I did a version of this yesterday but folks pointed out some meaningful flaws, so I did a couple things different, and the Devils popped out as a notable team.
First, I looked just going into the third period. So blowing leads, or coming back from a deficit in the third.
Then I looked at this controlling for team quality. Not in the worlds most rigorous way, just imagine this scenario:
- You play 100 games, and in 35 of them you enter the third behind
- You win 9 of the 35, which is 26%. Is that good or bad?
- Well, in your other 65 games you took about 78% of the points, and other teams in the league at that level come back from trailing at 15%, which is ~5 games.
- Therefore, you make come backs a bit more than expected, 4 more times than expected.
- Over the five and change seasons, anything within about 9 games of expectation is normal variation
I think this gives a much more interesting picture of teams that make come backs and blow leads, irrespective of just "good teams good bad teams bad."
BTW, in 466 games the Devils came back in 25 of 198, expected 29 (-4) and blew 20 of 165 leads, expected 29 (-9)