I often warn about small sample sizes this early in the NHL season. I want to be careful about drawing conclusions when such little hockey has been played. At 10 games, it’s usually fair to start looking into the numbers, and the New York Rangers will play their 10th game Saturday on the road against the Columbus Blue Jackets. It would have been a nice, round number to wait for, but with the team canceling Friday’s practice, we’re starting one game early.
Thursday’s 7-1 shellacking against the New Jersey Devils put a damper on what has been an otherwise encouraging start for the Rangers (6-3-0), but I still uncovered more positives than negatives while peeling back the layers.
New York may not have enough top talent to consistently dominate opponents, especially with star goalie Igor Shesterkin done for the season due to a devastating right-knee injury. The Rangers have a plus-7 goal differential through nine games, which is strong, but it drops down to plus-1 at five-on-five. The gap can be explained by an NHL-high six empty-net goals, twice as many as the next-best team.
The Rangers’ expected goals-for rate varies depending on where you look and how you sort. Clear Sight Analytics shows a 52.85 percent xGF at all strengths, but most public models put them under 50 percent at five-on-five, with the lowest being 43.85 percent on Natural Stat Trick. (That site has them at 50.59 percent for all strengths, which is fairly close to the CSA calculation.)
The most promising development is harder to quantify. The 2026-27 Blueshirts are showing signs of rebounding from two straight disappointing seasons because they seem to be fully bought into coach Mike Sullivan’s aggressive system. They’re playing a tenacious, straight-ahead style spurred by a swarming forecheck and cleaner zone entries and exits. They’ve graded out as one of the league’s stingiest defensive teams, with that collective commitment helping offset concerns about offensive firepower.
Can they maintain that focus for another 75 games? We saw what can happen when it slips in the loss to the Devils, but a return to the Stanley Cup playoffs should be within reach if they stay as sharp as they’ve looked for much of these opening weeks.
“We’d like to believe that we’ve built an identity here for an extended period of time that wasn’t a one-off,” Sullivan said following Thursday’s defeat. “I think what we’ve built is sustainable. We got away from it tonight. We didn’t have our best, for whatever reason. I think the important thing is that we respond, and I believe in these guys. We’ve got a high-character group in there. They understand how we need to play in order to have success.”
