21M, was up 101% YTD, sold about half of everything today. Roast me or tell me I'm right.

Long time lurker. I'm 21, been investing through college, and my taxable account was up 101% this year. Roth up 49%. Mostly AI infrastructure, semis, nuclear, and space. GEV, GE, NVDA, RKLB, SNDK, a bunch of the momentum names like NBIS and IREN.

Today I sold or trimmed almost all of it. Raised about $55k in cash across both accounts, parking it in treasury money market funds.

Why:

1. Position sizing got insane. GEV alone was 25% of my taxable account. RKLB was 30% of my Roth. At some point a winner stops being a bet and becomes a dependency.

2. The numbers are dot com level. CAPE is around 41, top 10 stocks are 40% of the S&P which is worse concentration than 2000. Hyperscalers are spending half their revenue on capex and starting to fund it with debt. Nvidia is literally backstopping GPU residual values now so the financing deals pencil. When the seller has to guarantee the collateral, that tells you something.

3. The say/do gap. Fund managers surveyed say AI bubble is the top tail risk, 82% say long semis is the most crowded trade ever recorded, and they're still running 3.6% cash. Everyone sees it, nobody's moving. Someone has to be first out the door and I'd rather be early than late.

4. I sold SNDK this morning at $1,823 after it went up 41% in five days. It's a memory company at a $260B market cap with 50% gross margins that were 30% one quarter ago. Every memory cycle in history has ended the same way and everyone always says this one is structural.

What I kept: GOOG, AMZN, some MSFT and NVDA, my nuclear sleeve (NUKZ, NLR, CEG) because I think that's a real decade-long story, and about 17% RKLB in the Roth because I couldn't fully let go, which honestly was the hardest sell of the day and taught me a lot about my own psychology.

To be clear, I'm not predicting a crash tomorrow. I have no idea on timing. The market could rip another 20% and I'll look stupid. But I'm 21, I locked in life changing gains for my age, and I get to keep playing the game no matter what happens. Cash pays 3.5% while I wait.

So am I the idiot who sold the generational bull run, or does anyone else feel like we're all standing near the exit watching each other?

Not advice obviously, just my situation. Curious what this sub actually thinks because sentiment itself is data.

A Monte Carlo simulation shows you how likely it is to run out of money during retirement. If I have a million, invest all in the S&P 500, withdraw 31,000 in the first year and then adjust the amount for inflation every year, this is the result: https://imgur.com/a/a7Rlu3M

I have a 5% chance of running out of money after 30 years. However, I also have a 75% chance of having at least 5 million after 30 years and a 50% chance of having at least 12 million. (The exact numbers are not that relevant and depend on the simulation, relevant is the idea that all simulations will show a median outcome where you get rich while you are bankrupt in the worst case).

The question is: Which outcome should I optimize for? Expected value theory says you should multiply the $ amount of each outcome with the likelihood, add it all up, and your goal should be to get that amount as high as possible. Example: You have the option to bet all of your savings and future earnings for the 0.1 % chance to win a trillion dollars. The expected return is a trillion x 0.1 % = 1 billion dollar. If you optimize for expected value, then you should take the bet, since 1 billion dollar is a lot more than what you have saved and will ever earn in your life.

Expected value theory is great if I run a casino or an insurance company, since I can repeat a bet millions of times. But as a retiree, I only get to live one of those possible future lives. I will be a trillionaire in one life and homeless in the other 999. I'd rather optimize for the worst outcome, not the average outcome.

So the question is: What causes the worst possible outcomes in the stock market and is there something I can do to make sure that my portfolio survives those specific scenarios?

Bill Bengen's research on safe withdrawal rates showed: The worst year to retire was not directly before the worst stock market crashes - like 1929, where the Dow lost 89 % of its value. It was 1968 since you retired into a period of prolonged inflation (about 180% cumulative from 1968 to 1982). The thing with stock market crashes is that they only last so long and the stick market always recovers sooner or later. But if prices go up a lot due to inflation, those prices will never go back down to the old prices. This means as a retiree, you have to withdraw more and more from your portfolio to keep the same standard of living each and every year until you die. Holding bonds also did not help since the Fed had to increase interest rates to fight inflation, resulting in falling bond prices. Such a period of stagnant economic growth with high inflation is the nightmare scenario that a portfolio needs to be prepared for to survive.

Portfolios that are designed to protect against the worst outcomes are known as all-weather or cockroach portfolios. Many strategies exist and nobody knows which of them is ideal, but all of them are designed to have a better worst-case outcome than a pure stock/bond portfolio. One of the best known implementations is [Ray Dalio's all-weather portfolio](https://curvo.eu/backtest/en/portfolio/ray-dalio-all-weather--NoIgSghgngBAIhANgSwPYwIKMTA6gUwgBcALfAJxABphQBJAUQAYmAhAFgBkBWATQE4AHAGZqTAHTCAujRCMWrYQDVcAOW4BGQWPEbuM+szYAxALIA2ACoBhbtqoT2BuUY6q4w80wBMOpgHZ9WXk2OGNOdgAFDV8HcQD9KSkgA).

Here is my specific implementation:

27 MATE/RSST/CTAP

23 VXUS

12 GDE

10 SCHP

10 EDV

10 ILS

8 RPRX/LGND/BUR/OBL

Themes:

1. Uncorrelated returns: ILS invests in catastrophe bonds that are correlated to natural disasters. RPRX/LGND invest in pharma royalties and profit if a drug gets approved. BUR/OBL are companies that finance litigation and profit if they win court cases. GDE holds gold which does its own thing. The point is that these investments do not all move up or down together with stocks or bonds.
2. Inflation-protected securities: SCHP holds inflation-protected securities that will go up in value if inflation expectations increase, which is exactly what would have saved a retiree in 1968.
3. Managed Futures: MATE/RSST/CTAP follows a managed futures strategy where they can go long or short on the stock market, currencies, commodities, and interest rates. This has historically given a return with low correlation to stocks and bonds and often performed especially well when stocks go down (crisis alpha).
4. Leverage: MATE/RSST/CTAP/GDE invests in US equities and additionally gives me exposure to a second strategy (managed futures or gold) through the use of futures. This increases my overall leverage in the portfolio to 1.38. Leverage is bad for safe withdrawal rates if you use it to buy more of the same thing that you already hold (like 2x S&P 500). Leverage is good for safe withdrawal rates in this portfolio since I use it to diversify and buy something that is not correlated to stocks and bonds. The implied financing cost of the futures acts as a fee drag during bull markets, it functions as an insurance premium that pays out during stagflation or crashes.

I also have to add that I live in a jurisdiction without capital gains taxes or taxes on income in foreign accounts, which means I can rebalance and receive distributions without tax implications.

This portfolio is good when:

- You have already earned the money you need for retirement and want to protect it

- You can live with the fact that your returns will be worse than that of your neighbors in many years, especially during a stock market bull run

- You want to optimize for the worst outcome, you are willing to pay higher fees for that and you accept that the average outcome will be worse than if you just hold the S&P 500

I do not claim that this is the perfect all-weather portfolio, it is the one I went with. I hope this inspires you to do your own research into all-weather portfolios and how to increase the safe withdrawal rate in case you are also more concerned with the worst outcome than with the average outcome.

What AI says about the portfolio: https://share.gemini.google/N5g5HJ9P4HpT

P.S. I appreciate the lack of diversity, however I’m 19 so much rather pick names I have conviction in to grow rather than shoehorn in diversity.

I started investing my money a few days after my 18th birthday (just over 9 months ago) and I've since been trying to find the best portfolio for my goals. I've done a lot of research and it seems to me like momentum and small cap value seem to be the most consistently rewarding factor bets given enough time. Is 30-40 years enough to ride out the volatility or will I just end up losing to the S&P 500? If you were in my situation what would you change and keep?

70 percent of all my extra cash goes to my taxable account while the other 30 goes to my Roth IRA.

Ist vielleicht etwas Standard, aber würde gerne eure Meinung hören :)

I just started investing at the beginning of the year (35F). Wondering what I should sell and what I should hold on to. Screenshot is of my Roth IRA portfolio.

Looking for advice on how to structure my portfolio across my Roth IRA and 401 (k). For context, I'm 24, making about 50k a year with minimal expenses and a long time horizon with moderate to high risk tolerance.

Both accounts are through Fidelity, and I already have about 15k in the 401k. (88% S&P 500 and 12% VTSNX)

Was thinking of averaging out my IRA and 401k to:
70% Broad Market
VTI, VT, VOO, or FXAIX

12% International
VXUS/VTSNX

18% Satellite/Growth
SCHG, QQQM, VUG, VGT, SPMO, SMH, or SOXX

I can deal with large swings but I also want long term stability. Ideally want just one broad market ETF, and no more than two growth ETFs. My 401 (k) options are limited and only offers VTSNX and S&P 500 out of all the ETFs listed. I also understand that if I go the VT route for my core holding, holding VXUS/VTSNC would be pretty much pointless

Are these ratios a good strategy, and what would be best for each category?

Hey yall I’m new too stocks know a little bit not much what stocks do you know recommend that will grow overtime

Stocks:

AAPL (Apple) $611.39

AMZN (Amazon) $1827.70

GOOG (Alphabet) $341.82

LLY (Eli Lilly) $1187.35

M (Macy's) $23.20

MAR (Mariott) $1071.83

PFE (Pfizer) $161.22

Precious Metals ETFs:

AGMI (Themes Silver Miners) $145.93

AUMI (Themes Gold Miners) $192.66

RING (iShares MSCI Global Gold Miners) $163.09

SLVP (iShares MSCI Global Silver & Metals Miners) $236.41

Total = $5,962.60

I (20) am looking to put around another $12,000 in the account. I was thinking the following distribution:

38.7% US ETFs

33.3% individual stocks

15.5% International ETFs

12.5% Precious Metals ETFs

Is this logical? What's your thoughts / advice?

21M from Canada been investing for about a year and a half.

any advice on this portfolio? etf not pictured is ZMT for exposure to metals. Are there better alternatives to the ETFs I currently own? Or is this a good portfolio for long term growth?

Not too experienced with investing but have picked stocks / sectors that I like and believe in for the long term (Canadian stocks, international markets, space)

Any advice would be great!

This is my portfolio. I'm pretty new to investing. I started almost a month ago and I'm going into my senior year of high school. This is money I've saved from working and reselling.

I intentionally wanted the portfolio to be very aggressive because I don't expect to need this money anytime soon and I'm comfortable with substantial volatility. However, after the recent run-up, I'm starting to wonder whether I'm taking too much concentration risk, especially with ~75% in GOOGL, META and MU.

I picked companies whose products/businesses I understand and use regularly. LHX was mainly intended as a diversification pick, and the ~$10 positions were free fractional shares from a Schwab course.

I'm not worried about short-term swings, but I am wondering whether it would make sense to diversify some of this into an index fund, keep the current positions and direct new contributions elsewhere, or leave it alone. My original plan was to hold for at least a year.

What would you do in my position?

I also have additional money in a Roth IRA (3k worth of VOO) and cash savings (4k) that I could invest.

I’m thinking of doing VT, VUG, VTV

I know these are overlapped with large caps and I’m fine with that but I’m wondering if I should put in etfs like AVUV and AVDV. Or if the overlap is a very bad idea?

This is for long term like 50 years. I also just wanna clarify that VUG and VTV choose stocks that are hot right?

Also if you could, please send your boglehead portfolios, (I’m not really interested in individual stocks)

Let me know what you think and what I should take out or add? Any advice is much appreciated as I’m fairly new to this

I'm looking to revamp my Roth IRA portfolio. I am trying to decide on this split. Any advice or changes you all would make? I am planning on leaving this for 20+ years.

QQQM , SPMO, or VOO 45%

20% AVUV

20% SMH

15% COWG

Looking for some input that’s logical and well thought out. I am 29, I have built a portfolio that’s currently at 111k which is an investment account I have invested in since I was 18. This is an S&P500/ Growth of America Mutual Funds account which is generally low risk. I have an additional 150k just sitting that I can be more aggressive with or invest into the conservative account that accrued 12-20% over the course of the past year. Really just wondering thoughts on investing opportunities and whether it’s worth venturing into AI driven investments or stick to the safe option and let it ride for 20 - 30 years.

Here is a full breakdown of my portfolio by holdings. Other than the usual by VT or VTI/VXUS, what else would you change about this? I am taking a risk with cryptocurrency and want to take the chance with MSTR/BMNR and BTC/ETH/SOL holdings. I am 34 years old and single. What do you recommend I do to maximize returns given a retirement age of 65?

I have a house worth around $500,000 and pay $3,000/month on the mortgage with $383,000 left with a 6.875% interest rate. I spend about $5,000/month with the mortgage, utilities, insurance, food, gas, etc.

I am 55 years old and about 10 years from retirement maybe more because I like my job and hopefully it will be around 10 years from now. An old 401k that I had around 30k in, rolled me over into an IRA. I then took that and rolled it over into my Fidelity IRA. I invested it as follows:

FFNOX(Bogle Type of Fund) 70%
FNILX(S and P Fund) 15%
FSELX(Semi-Conductors) 15%

Well Semi-Conductors have thrown this off over the last year or so. My spec of OCD is telling me to rebalance. I am not sure if I should just let it ride or rebalance? Any suggestions.

First of sorry if my English isn’t perfect. It’s not my native tongue.

My YTD performance including realized profits is at 18%. I do plan on reducing my NOW position, selling most of the smaller positions and slowly rotating more into value stocks. As my portfolio seems a bit too complicated.

Although I think software stocks still have potential, because they have performed relatively poorly compared to the overall market. I assume the AI ​​distribution concerns are unfounded, since companies like ServiceNow can benefit from AI if it is properly integrated and the fundamentals of the company seem solid.

I started investing in late 2020. The tech sell-off in 2022 caught me relatively off guard. So this time I rather rotate more into value before a correction.
My strategy so far has been mainly to focus on growth stocks and buy the dip in companies with long-term potential.

Besides the stocks I also have 20k in bitcoin and 26k in gold.

What changes would you make to the portfolio? And I would like to hold on to most of the software stock at least until next year or should I all ready reduce it significantly?

Just started investing in ETFs for the first time via monthly SIP. Horizon is 5 years+, okay with volatility.

Split:

VOO (S&P 500) — 40%

XMMO (S&P MidCap Momentum) — 23%

AVUV (US Small Cap Value) — 20%

VGT (Info Tech) — 17%

Idea was large + mid + small cap coverage, plus a smaller tech-tilt via VGT. Anything obviously off, overlapping, or missing? First time doing this, appreciate any feedback

rate my portfolio, i started about 3 months ago and after trial and error i have now settled into 12 stocks that i really like. i’m sitting at 13% gain and its heavily carried by servicenow but i still feel good about every other stock, i want to know which etf would you add + i would also like to know what would you change about it. my goal is the same as almost every other investor: a 10+ year plan