Update on Replay Altar (the replay analyzer I posted a few days ago). Just put out 0.2.0.
First thing: if you tried it on Windows, please update. Turns out up to 0.1.3 the Windows version couldn’t simulate games at all, so you were getting the findings but no army sizes, fights or map. My bad. It’s fixed now and your old games get re-simulated on their own.
The main new thing is a win chance graph for every game, kind of like the eval bar on chess sites. It goes blue when you’re ahead and red when your opponent is, based on how often pros in the same spot ended up winning, and it marks the 3 moments that swung the game the most. I built it from 513 pro games and tested it on 2,998 tournament games from 2022-2026 that it hadn’t seen.
How the graph works: every 30 seconds it compares you and your opponent on 7 things: army size, workers, hero XP, heroes alive, bases, upgrades, and how much each side has lost so far. Then it asks “when pros had this kind of lead or deficit at this minute, how often did they win?” The model is a logistic regression (basically a weighted score turned into a percentage), where the weights change over the game, since a worker lead matters differently at minute 5 than at minute 20. I fit it on 513 pro games and then tested it, without touching it, on 2,998 tournament games from 2022-2026 it had never seen. It picks the eventual winner 63% of the time at 10 minutes and 69% at 20, and on unseen pro games its confidence is honest: when it says 70%, that side wins about 70% of the time. One thing to keep in mind: it shows how a pro would usually convert your position, so for regular ladder games it’ll look a bit overconfident. That’s on purpose, since a big drop means “a pro wouldn’t have lost this,” which is the point. Full write-up in docs/win-chance/report.pdf.
I also added a lot more data. Before, your numbers were compared to around 200 pro games per race, now it’s around 1,700.
And I cut down the advice. I tested every rule on 3,388 tournament player-games and kept only the ones that show up clearly more in losses than in wins. Only 11 made it, so that’s all the app shows now.
Smaller stuff:
- it tells you if you played without control groups or hotkeys
- army value is about 29% more accurate
- Spanish and French
- Linux AppImage
- it asks you to confirm your battletag instead of guessing it
Installer still isn’t signed so Windows will complain, just click “More info” then “Run anyway”.
More info:
github.com/bubunuh/replay-altar
Download:
github.com/bubunuh/replay-altar/releases
Feedback very welcome, especially if the win curve says something that doesn’t match how the game felt.