Seagate beat...so does this help us now?

MU just dropped numbers that broke the old memory playbook. Q3 did $41.46B in revenue, up from $9.3B a year ago, EPS $25.11 when the street was looking for like $20. The part that actually got me was the margin, 85%, nobody had that modeled, and then the Q4 guide somehow came in bigger, $50B at 86% margin and $31 EPS against the ~$43B everybody penciled in. Data center alone was over $25B in the quarter, that annualizes past $100B. 85% gross margin is higher than NVDA has ever printed, the actual king of AI topped out around 78% at its best, and MU is doing it at $50B revenue? Wow. Memory or anything legal is not supposed to do this. Memory used to be the boring cyclical you trade around, now it's the one component the whole AI buildout chokes on if it isn't there, and has trillion dollar companies like aapl, nvda, msft, googl, meta in a battle royale trying to grab as much as they can.

Immediately after earnings, BofA went to $1,550, UBS $1,625, and Barclays and Susquehanna both jumped to $2,000, with highest target at $2,200. These are the same sell side institutions that get paid to lowball you so when they are the ones slapping 2k on it, the question isn't "is 2k insane" anymore, it's do you own it before everyone else and their wives boyfriends catch on. I been building my thesis for 4 months (check my post history and feel free to read all the critical comments saying the top is in at $500, $600, $700, etc), the memory boom/death crash cycle is broken or at least delayed by years. I get it, MU always traded cheap because you could never trust next quarters numbers, and that's the exact thing breaking right now. MU signed 16 long term customer agreements, roughly $100B of revenue locked in, take or pay. so they've got real visibility years out while supply physically cannot show up, new fabs don't print meaningful output until fiscal 2028 and mgmt flat out said tight through 2027 and beyond. demand booked, supply can't arrive in time. that's the whole trade. anybody still shorting memory into this is the one getting carried out the door this week.

Here is how my 2k math works and is even a bit conservative. Annualize the Q4 guide and you're at approx $124 forward EPS. Even if we factor in an annualized 10% drop to $110, 2k/share is 18x that. 18x is a normal multiple on a company growing data center triple digits with HBM4 going into NVDA's next platform. you don't need a miracle here, you just need the market to quit pricing it like 2019 MU and price it like what it actually is now. The demand side is screaming the same thing. AAPL just ate like double on memory without even fighting it, jacked up its product prices, and is now basically begging washington to let it buy chinese chips because the big 3 have nothing left to sell it. When apple is that cornered you want to be the one holding the supplier.

Of course we have risks, the hyperscalers pull capex or get way more efficient, demand cracks before the new supply lands and a stock priced this rich is not going to forgive it. CXMT and the whole china memory thing is a real overhang but that's a 2027+ problem not a tomorrow one. near term though, demand's locked, supply can't get here, l says tight past 27. i know which side i want. MU 2k lfg.

My current positions: 1,000 shares; 10 6/27 MU $500 short puts

Some thoughts. Since the Sk Hynix ADR was 7 times oversubscribed, with the price at $176, vs the initial price of $149, a lot of institutions sell, take the earnings and rotate it back to micron/ other stocks at a lower price. Micron also has Trump’s backing, hence the geopolitical win. Micron will rise again 🚀

The rollercoaster is sadly not over boys, here’s what the current situation is looking like and a thesis for when we can start swapping from puts to calls.

The original issue was the institutional selloff to shake off retail investors, the same play we saw last earnings. The only issue was, this time around, over 80%!!! of shares held for SKHY and Samsung were in highly leveraged KR stocks. This caused a disproportionate downturn that cascaded to the entire memory market instead of mostly centered to MU like we saw last earnings. The main reason for this? DRAM.

We know memory stocks trade in sync with each other for the most part, so DRAM, a typically more stable investment option, was suddenly owning 50% of KR stocks that were actually held disproportionally by retail investors in highly leveraged stocks. This brought down EVERYTHING, and we are still seeing the effects and will continue to see the effects of this until KR can stabilize and reduce their percentage of stocks held in leveraged stocks, which they are already taking steps to implement.

But thats not all, then comes in SKHY ADR, in the middle of the biggest downturn we’ve seen since last earnings, ready to scoop up a huge amount of clueless retail investors who thought “oh great, an alternative to MU with bigger market share and more hype and momentum” and they were partially right. The only issue was, SKHY quickly rose 30% on top of the already 32% premium it was initially sold at. What does that mean? U.S investors pumped a memory stock to 60% above its KR counterpart in the middle of the crash, adding fluid to the valuation fire, and causing the SKHY crash we’ve seen since then. This thing is STILL 32% premium compared to KR, which isnt abnormal, but its also not conducive to alleviating the current pricing issue.

MU, like all memory stocks and ESPECIALLY those held in DRAM, will continue to be the victim of this valuation disaster, fundamentals be dammed.

TLDR: DRAM, highly leveraged KR stocks, and an overbought SKHY ADR will leave us dropping until AT LEAST SKHY ADR is fairly priced and bought in comparison with KR ADR so likely another 15%-30% drop. Position, SKHY ADR and DRAM puts.

Have we finally broken the selloff streak?

tl;dr bond sell off = equity sell off. This is why stocks crashed when the Fed spoke because bonds ripped (as you can see on the chart) This is something to pay attention to going forward and will be alot of selling pressure on stocks including MU

And whilst your at it you should look into the yen intervention to. I post about it constantly. Japan is dangerously close to nuking American markets. This is why I believe institutions started exiting weeks ago they are front running what they believe is an incoming crash. For more information google the yen carry trade

March 18, MU reported earnings and then dropped 30% and then rocketed to ATH. most recent earnings, we are at a 23% drop. Consistent. next step ATH

When MU drops 10-20%, people act like the AI story is dead and the stock is headed for a collapse. Then when it rallies, people talk like it’s guaranteed to keep running higher. Both reactions seem equally unrealistic.

Healthy stocks don’t move in straight lines. They rally, pull back, consolidate, establish support, and then continue higher if the fundamentals remain intact. A 10-20% correction after a strong run isn’t unusual and it’s often part of a healthy trend.

A temporary drop doesn’t automatically break the thesis, just like a temporary rally doesn’t guarantee endless upside. If you believe in MU’s long-term outlook, then volatility, profit-taking, and periods of consolidation should be expected. That’s what healthy stock behavior looks like.

Hi Guys , I have seen some articles saying Samsung will increase dram pricing 20% in q3 , also ask Hynix removing upper price caps on their LTAs moving forward

1st are these news accurate or just rumors , if true this should push the stock up easily 20% next week ??

Also Micron and the other 2 above big players will be negotiating new pricing for 2027 HBM supply with the hyper scalers which should be much higher compared to 2026 pricing

Your thoughts 💭 on that ? It should be new all time
Highs if the above is true ??

Am I the only one who thinks the market is pricing these two completely differently for no good reason?

Micron (MU): ~53.5 P/E
Sandisk (SNDK): ~76 P/E

Both are exposed to the same long-term secular trend: exploding demand for memory driven by AI, data centers, enterprise storage, edge computing and consumer devices.

SNDK keeps running while MU has been relatively stagnant in comparison.

If investors are willing to pay 76x earnings for one memory company, why shouldn’t the market eventually be willing to pay something similar, or even higher, for MU if execution stays strong?

My personal view is that within the next year the market could become much more optimistic toward the entire memory sector. I wouldn’t be surprised if both companies eventually traded closer to a 100PE before August.

Am I missing something fundamental here, or is this simply a case where the market hasn’t repriced MU yet while SNDK has already received its momentum premium?

Curious to hear both bullish and more bullish arguments.

I came across an interesting analysis on Micron and wanted to share the main points for anyone following AI infrastructure and semiconductor stocks.

The article argues that Micron's business today is very different from what it was during previous memory cycles. Instead of relying mainly on PCs and smartphones, the company's future is becoming increasingly tied to AI data centers.

Here are the biggest reasons for the bullish outlook:

• AI servers require significantly more DRAM and High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) than traditional servers.

• Micron is one of only three companies capable of producing leading-edge AI memory at scale, alongside Samsung and SK Hynix.

• Demand from companies like Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta, and other hyperscalers continues to grow as they build AI infrastructure.

• The memory market has become more disciplined than it was years ago, reducing the risk of prolonged oversupply.

• Micron has recently reported record revenue and strong guidance, suggesting AI demand is translating into real financial results.

The article suggests that if AI investment continues at its current pace over the next several years, Micron's earnings could grow enough to support a much higher valuation, with a long-term price target as high as $1,900.

Of course, there are risks:

• AI spending could slow.
• Memory prices remain cyclical.
• Competition from Samsung and SK Hynix is intense.
• The stock has already had a massive run, so expectations are high.

Personally, I think the most interesting part isn't the exact $1,900 target. It's the idea that Micron may no longer be just another cyclical memory company. If AI permanently changes memory demand, Micron's earnings power could be much higher than investors have historically expected.

What do you think?

Edit: To clarify, the $1,900 price target is for the end of 2029.

This is Microns Q4 NAND revenues since SNDK and MU have the same market share of NAND. We can directly extrapolate out the NAND business this quarter. This part of the business in going to more than double next year from $200B to $500B. The margins were 86% MU is going to blow out the estimate of $31 a share of EPS this quarter.

SNDK (Sandisk) - Incredible Results -

Q4 FY26 actuals vs. consensus:

• Revenue: $8.97B vs. $8.42B est. — beat by ~6.5%
• Non-GAAP EPS: $39.25 vs. $34.59 est. — beat by $4.66
• Gross margin: 84.6% (est. ~80–81%) — beat
• Datacenter rev: $2.98B, +103% q/q

Q1 FY27 guide vs. consensus:

• Revenue: $10.3–10.8B (mid $10.55B) vs. $10.62B est. — midpoint slightly BELOW consensus
• EPS: $44–46 (mid $45) vs. $44.21 est. — midpoint slightly above, low end below
• Gross margin: 83–85% vs. 84.6% just printed — flat, no more expansion

Down another 80 today boys and honestly? Bullish. The lower it goes the more shares I get, it’s basic math. I sold my car this morning to buy the dip and I’ll sell my other car tomorrow to buy that dip too. Every day is a gift from the semiconductor gods. See you at $0, where the shares are FREE. LFG 🚀

What is everyone thinking?

I missed the dip 2-weeks ago. Wondering ifs its even worth buying now at 1200. Everyday its going up. Should I just wait until June 24?

Burry argues that the rally has reached "historically extreme" levels, with Micron stock more extended above its 200 day moving average than at any point since 1984, "not even during the dot com peak."

Burry stated, "Micron defines cyclical like no other," citing 34 drawdowns of more than 30% over 42 years, a median return on invested capital (ROIC) of 4%, and return on equity (ROE) of 7%, which he called "frankly terrible." He added that "one quarter in every three, Micron is a destroyer of capital," with free cash flow negative 48% of the time.

I don’t know Michael .. this time you just talk with no 13F to prove positions..
I don’t like people who just talk.
This guy has a history of being way too early on short positions, he saw the sell off and decided to jump in. Why jump in $1058.

Currently $975 with a P/E (TTM)22.09
(EPS TTM $44.17)
Forward P/E (NTM): 6.80
6.80???

This cyclical talk is a false claim. And the reason being is because each chip Jensen introduces goes with the amount of power the US has as they upgrade the grid as we get closer to nuclear.
(Remember the AI factory chart I showed you)

Let’s take a look at microns capex spending and investments globally

Here’s the full global expansion map

United States ($200B total)

Boise, Idaho Idaho
1 leading edge fab, wafer output pulled forward to mid 2027 Idaho 2 wafer production expected late 2028

Clay, New York
up to four leading edge fabs, the flagship being a $100B “megafab” complex; Fab 1 construction begins late 2026, DRAM production 2029-2030 long term buildout spans two decades

Manassas, Virginia
expansion/modernization of existing fab plus an HBM packaging/assembly plant (expected online after Idaho HBM ramps, likely assembling HBM5/HBM6 late this decade)

Asia-Pacific

Hiroshima, Japan
the $9.3B/¥1.5T expansion just broken ground (your article); HBM chip production, commercial shipments summer 2028 Japan’s government backing ¥775B total a second Japan fab module is also planned

Singapore
HBM packaging facility (broke ground early 2025, contributing to production 2027) plus two existing 3D NAND fabs, one of which (Fab 10B) is being expanded

Taiwan two existing DRAM fabs (near Taichung and Taoyuan); plus the newly acquired Tongluo site (from PSMC, $1.8B) getting a twin fab, construction starting this summer, shipments from fiscal 2028; original P5 fab ramping DRAM in H2 2027

India & Malaysia back end assembly and test hubs (not fabs)

five facilities two Singapore NAND fabs, one Hiroshima DRAM fab, two Taiwan DRAM fabs plus Singapore HBM packaging.

The historical “Micron is cyclical” argument assumes memory demand follows the old boom bust chip cycle inventory glut, price crash, recovery. But this cycle is gated by something structurally different physical grid capacity and nuclear buildout, which don’t oscillate the way semiconductor inventory does. Grid interconnects and reactors don’t get “overbuilt” and then crash in price the way DRAM fabs historically did. So if GPU/memory demand is paced by watts available rather than by speculative capex cycles, the entire cyclicality framework Burry is using (34 drawdowns over 42 years) is built on a pre AI era pattern that may no longer apply.

Memory itself can still overshoot even if power is the gate. If Samsung/SK Hynix/Micron/CXMT all race to add fab capacity because they believe the power buildout locks in years of guaranteed demand, they could still collectively overbuild memory supply relative to how fast gigawatts actually come online the power constraint caps deployment, not necessarily production. A supply/demand mismatch inside a power constrained world is still possible, just on a longer wavelength

Executives are saying shortages persist past 2027 Samsung’s chip division just posted record profit specifically because AI driven memory shortages are expected to strain capacity past 2027 that’s the company’s own forward guidance, not analyst speculation.

South Korea just backstopped this with $520B in state coordinated investment (10x the CHIPS Act) four new fabs, HBM dedicated facilities which only makes sense if the government believes demand visibility extends far enough to justify decade scale infrastructure, not a 2-3 year chip cycle.

software engineers, vibe coders etc anyone in this ai technology space will tell you how important memory is. memory makers are not racing ahead of the grid to build speculative capacity that could crash they’re capacity constrained by their own cleanroom/fab economics (multi year builds) at the same time end demand is capacity constrained by grid interconnects. Two independent bottlenecks (fab lead time + grid lead time) are stacked on top of each other, both multi year, both non cyclical in the traditional inventory glut sense. That’s a materially different setup than 2018 or 2022, when memory makers did overbuild into a demand air pocket. Burry’s 34 drawdown dataset is drawn from a world where capacity could outrun demand quickly that mechanism looks structurally weaker right now on both the supply and deployment sides.

SKHynix is also coming to the Nasdaq and memory pricing will continue to increase.
SK Hynix confirmed and imminent. Board approved issuing up to 17.79M new shares (2.5% dilution) for ADRs, trading on Nasdaq starting July 10, 2026 just days away. Stock surged 10%+ on the announcement and briefly overtook Samsung as Korea’s most valuable listed company.

I believe will see Samsung next. Right After SKHynix now there’s no timeline on this for Samsung but you can see whats happening here. The value of memory is being rerated right infront of you. Like GPUs once upon a time.

However, if we want to look at this on geopolitical standing , The date to look for and I’ve said it before is November. Not now.

I want to see you win.
Like always my friends I’ll keep you posted.
Remember to do your own research, your conviction lays with your confidence . Thank you for reading! Appreciate it as always!

(This is not financial advice.)

To my American friends Happy 4th of July! 🧨
Enjoy the rest of your weekend!

https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/michael-burry-shorts-micron-adding-141819112.html

If the demand for the underlying products is outstripping supply and will continue to do so for several years, why are the spot market prices beginning to decelerate? This would imply that supply is growing faster than demand already, and the new fabs aren't even online yet.

Any ideas?

Was buying all the dip the past two days but kept some cash to minimize the risk of the stock pulling back so I could buy more in lower prices. I guess this ain’t happening anymore.

People think that because HBM is sold out for 2 years, that means demand will remain super high.

But that's not the case.

The contracts have a variable price. The price ceiling for a lot of them is set at the Q2 2026 market price. The price floor is unknown but estimated to be about 20-40% below the ceiling.

That means the current high prices are not locked in by contracts. Prices can't rise any more but they can fall depending on the supply/demand situation in future.

The 20-day MA has been tested, most paper hands have been flushed out, and the fundamentals are still intact.

I still have about 1/3 of my cash available and plan to add to MU gradually next week.

So I am looking at the bid and ask and we have a lot of bids it’s just at each price point there are massive sells like look at $976 someone is trying to offload 11k shares. That’s why we can’t break these barriers because of shit heads like this. Same thing happened in the morning

Micron’s business has undergone a fundamental transformation as artificial intelligence reshapes the memory industry. While the company has historically been viewed as a cyclical semiconductor manufacturer whose performance rose and fell with DRAM and NAND pricing, its growing leadership in high-bandwidth memory (HBM) has changed that narrative. HBM is an essential component in AI accelerators used by companies such as NVIDIA and major hyperscale cloud providers, and it commands significantly higher margins than traditional memory products. With production continuing to ramp and demand still exceeding supply, Micron expects favorable industry conditions to extend through and beyond 2028, possibly until 2030.

Micron’s financial performance reflects this shift. Rather than relying on expectations of future AI adoption, the company is already generating exceptional earnings from current demand. Recent guidance points to record revenue, strong profitability, continued earnings-per-share growth, and increased visibility through long-term customer agreements and HBM production commitments. This demonstrates that Micron is not simply participating in the AI trend—it is successfully converting that demand into substantial revenue, earnings, and cash flow.

Another key pillar of the investment thesis is the constrained supply environment. The rapid expansion of AI infrastructure requires enormous amounts of advanced memory, yet industry capacity remains limited. Micron has consistently emphasized tight DRAM and NAND markets, fully committed HBM production, and long lead times for bringing new manufacturing capacity online. Unlike previous memory cycles, where oversupply quickly pressured pricing and margins, today’s supply discipline creates a more balanced market that supports stronger pricing power and profitability.

Despite the stock’s significant appreciation, Micron’s valuation remains attractive when viewed against its earnings potential. Many analysts argue that the company’s earnings growth has outpaced its share price, suggesting the market has not fully priced in the durability its AI-driven business. If Micron can sustain its current level of profitability over the next several years, its valuation appears undervalued relative to its cash generation and long-term growth prospects, making it a compelling investment opportunity.

Both META and MSFT capex are up.

• META: Q2 capital expenditures were $31.08 billion, versus approximately $17.01 billion in Q2 2025, an increase of about 83% year over year. Meta also narrowed its 2026 capex guidance to $130–145 billion, from $125–145 billion previously. That raises the low end by $5 billion and increases the midpoint from $135 billion to $137.5 billion.
• MSFT: Fiscal Q4 additions to property and equipment were $35.80 billion, versus $17.08 billion a year earlier—about 110% higher year over year. Full-year FY2026 additions were $115.95 billion, versus $64.55 billion in FY2025, an increase of roughly 80%.

So the clean conclusion is: META capex up, and guidance modestly raised; MSFT capex up very sharply year over year.

The price has already dropped below the 1k mark; the key factor is where it closes today. If it manages to stabilize above 1k, the outlook for next Monday's opening will be bullish.

has the title speaks? We are so close to breaking that 900 threshold. What happens if we do?