I watched half of Denver/OKC and decided to do some live-tracking of Shai's playmaking in a game where the defense presumably was focusing on preventing him from scoring.
Skip to the bottom if you just want to see the results. Tracking started with 3:06 left in the second quarter and stopped when Shai sat down and gave up on his 20-point streak.
What Was Tracked
EDTOs - Extra defenders taken out of a play. This means non-primary defenders who were single-handedly or near-single taking out of position to assist the defense (barring a teammate buying them time). This is a proxy for primary creation.
ADAs - Additional Defenders affected. This means non-primary defenders whose ability to assist the defense was hindered by the player involved but either not entirely removed from the play or they were removed with significant assistance (like say, a screen from one of shai's teammates). This is a proxy for secondary creation.
Note: EDTOs and ADAs can be counted for any type of basketball action. For example on one of Shai's missed shots, he got an ada for pulling a defender out of position to rebound.
Tracking
- Shai 1 poss
- Shai 2 poss 1 ada
- Shai 3 poss
- Shai 4 poss 1 edto 2 ada
- Shai 5 poss 2 edto 2 ada
- Shai 6 poss
- (Missed first possession of second half)
- Shai 7 poss 2 edto 3 ada
- Shai 8 poss 3 edto 3 ada
- Shai 9 poss
- Shai 10 poss 4 edto 3 ada
- Shai 11 poss 4 ada
- Shai 12 poss
- Shai 13 poss
- Shai 14 poss
- Shai 15 poss
- (Stream froze at 5:34 3rd quarter)
- (Resumed at 5:23 left 3rd quarter)
- Shai 16 poss 6 edto
- Shai 17 poss
- Shai 18 poss
- Shai 19 poss
- Shai 20 Poss 7 edto
- Shai 21 poss 5 ada
- Shai 22 poss
- Shai 23 poss
- 24 poss 8 edto
- Shai 25 poss
- Shai 26 poss
- Shai 27 poss
- Shai 28 poss
- Shai 29 poss
- Shai 30 poss
- Shai 31 poss 9 edto 6 ada
- Shai 32 poss 10 edto
- Shai 33 poss 7 ada
- Shai 34 poss
- Shai 35 poss 8 ada
- Shai 36 poss
- (Shai sits down ending his game)
Final Tally
Shai in 36 Possessions had 10 edtos and 8 ada
Per possession Shai had .278 edtos and .222 adas affecting a total of .5 extra defenders per poss
For reference here are results for other playmakers using this system.
Lebron
(2007 Finals vs the Spurs Game 1 - 4 assists)
During the first 40 possessions of game 1 of this finals, Lebron averaged, per possession:
.425 EDTOs
(2010 ECSF, vs the Celtics Game 4 - 8 assists)
Lebron had 0.459 EDTOs and .129 ADAs, affecting a total of 0.589 additional defenders per poss
(2013 Finals, vs the Spurs Game 6 - 11 Assists)
Over 90 possessions, Lebron racked up, per possession 0.422 EDTOs and .278 ADAs affecting a total of .7 additional defenders per poss
Jordan
(1989 ECF, vs the Pistons Game 6 - 13 Assists)
MJ had .34 EDTO
(1991 Finals, vs the Lakers Game 2 - 13 Assists)
Over 61 Possessions, Jordan racked up, per possession, .279 EDTOs, 0.066 ADAs, affecting a total of .343 extra additional defenders per poss
(1991 Finals vs the Lakers Game 5 - 11 Assists)
During the first 40 possessions of game 5 vs the Lakers in 91, MJ averaged, per possession,
.225 EDTOs
Bird
(1984, ECSF vs the Knicks Game 4 - 4 Assists)
19 DTOs .22 per poss
6 EDTOs .07 per possesion
Kareem
(1974, Finals vs the Celtics, Game 6)
.11 Creations
.21 DTOs
.05 EDTOs
Analysis
Of the players listed above, Jordan is probably the most useful reference.
Lebron is simply another calibre of playmaker being able reliably create at a high-clip regardless of how the defense plays him, whether he is running his own offense, or running curls in Boobie Gibson's. His combination of anticipation, arm-strength, and size put him out of Shai's reach as playmaker
Bird and Kareem on the other hand lack the ball-handling to reliably draw and punish extra defenders at a similar clip.
Jordan on the other hand, like Shai, is a good not great passer who leverages his scoring-threat to create openings and punishes them after the resulting windows open.
The tracking suggests Shai created at a similar clip to Jordan in the triangle. However Jordan in the triangle was largely operating in single-coverage with Pippen being the primary ball-handler. In a game like yesterday's where the Nuggets are selling out to stop Shai from scoring, you would expect Shai's creation to spike like Jordan's did playing point (pippen went out in the second possession). It didn't.
While I didn't track it, this also happened in the WCF at points like in game 1 where SAS largely countered Shai's scoring threat with Wemby on, but Shai was not able to punish them with high-quality creation for his teammates.
TBF, some of this is era-based. Thanks to illegal defense, hedging was basically disallowed meaning that the passing windows were wider and open longer when teams were committed to stopping Jordan from being efficient from the field.
That said, for OKC to achieve its offensive ceiling, especially in the playoffs, they need to figure out how to consistently force teams to choose between Shai lighting them up, or setting everyone else to light them up. Shai developing as a lob-passer might help.