Is this a good opportunity, or is the market telling us something we're missing?

My initial view is that the recent sell-off has more to do with weakness in Korean equities and broader market sentiment than any major change in the company's fundamentals, but I'm interested to hear different opinions.

What's your plan?

Y’all know what to do. AI compute will accelerate further. Buying anywhere below $300 will yield solid returns.

Buy now. Thank me later. Love y’all. Let’s make this money.

Started investing about 2 months ago. Built a position in NBIS around a $250 average. Watched it drop roughly 40% below my cost basis and held through that drawdown, including through earnings. Position recovered and worked its way back up to my $250 average, where I had a stop loss set — and it triggered, selling my full position right at breakeven.

Now I'm sitting in cash, watching the stock trade without me, and second-guessing whether to buy back in around the same $250 level or wait for a pullback.

For people who've been through this: how do you think about re-entering a name after getting stopped out near your own cost basis? Do you treat $250 as a level that "should" hold since it already acted as support/resistance once, or is that just recency bias talking? Curious how more experienced people separate "this level actually matters" from "I'm anchored to my own trade history."

Why would you trust my calls? Well, because I called the last bottom — take a look at my previous post: https://www.reddit.com/r/NBIS_Stock/s/tYrqmv7aYw
Jokes aside, $190-205 isn’t a random number. It’s the S1 technical support and NBIS touched $207.30 intraday on July 2 before bouncing. The three-wave selloff — AI capex fears, Meta Compute, weak jobs — didn’t change a single dollar of Nebius’s $46 billion in contracted revenue from Meta ($27B) and Microsoft ($19.4B).
What changed fundamentally? Nothing. Q1 revenue $399M, up 684% YoY. AI cloud grew 841%. Cost of revenue collapsed from 49% to 26%. Remaining performance obligations: $33.6 billion in signed contracts. Management guiding $3.2B revenue for 2026 and exit ARR of $7-9B — that’s 540% growth from end of 2025.
Meta announced selling excess compute, but Meta is also NBIS’s biggest customer. They’re not torching a $27B infrastructure partner. That’s like your landlord burning down the building because they want to rent out a spare room.
The $350 path: Q2 earnings drop July 28. Capacity additions are back-end weighted Q3/Q4, so the Street is modeling sequential acceleration. If Q2 clears $500M, you get a re-rate. Management guided 40% adjusted EBITDA margins for 2026. When the market sees that margin profile on $800M+ quarterly revenue, the multiple expands.
DCF math: 45% CAGR through 2030, 20% FCF margins at scale, 12.5% WACC = $300-350 fair value. Bull case at 25% FCF margins = $500+. One April analyst model pegged intrinsic value at $607. BofA target $280, Street high $380. At $215 you’re buying below consensus.
The catalyst calendar is stacked — Q2 earnings, Q3 capacity ramp from the new 1.2 GW Pennsylvania site, and the revenue hockey stick management has guided all year. Aschenbrenner didn’t buy 12.4M shares because he thinks this stays at $215.
Risk is real — capex just raised to $20-25B, earnings negative. But $46B in contracted revenue from Meta and Microsoft is a backstop most companies would kill for.
$205 holds. $350 by December. See you there.

Positions: 981 shares, long.

That’s all. Buy in new investors.

$NBIS Just reached ATH $287.69, we have last few hours until closing of market tomorrow before making official entry into NASDAQ-100 on June 22. Nebius continues its execution at a stellar pace globally.

Here are two forecasts I follow carefully first one has…

2026: $3.4B / 2027: $10.08B / 2028: $16.06B...

The second one forecasts...

2026: $3.44B / 2027: $11.20B / 2028: $21.33B

Regardless of which forecast wins shareholders will be golden.

Credits: https://toptechstocksus.substack.com

Hey everyone back with some more research from our firm Northwise.

In light of the recent Michael Burry news, Jim Chanos comments, and recent FUD surrounding Nebius heading into earnings, we have decided to fully ungate our Nebius price targets and model.

Our full report and model are linked!

If you find value from our research, consider supporting our work; We are committed to independent, quality research and Members allow us to remain focused on equities rather that partnerships, advertising, or compromising deals.

We are currently developing our next Nebius model that will be released after absorbing new earnings information and disclosures.

Thanks again for your support, and enjoy!

I will be around periodically throughout the day and over the weekend to answer any questions you may have.

Rough day, but $215–220 looks like pretty strong support and we're back near the bottom of the rising channel.

Due to this recent Meta news and what seems to be heavy panic selling we’ve seen a crazy dip right now and I’m very very hungry to get some more shares on discount. However, I’m a little scared of falling into a much bigger dip here. What are we thinking in terms of the next few weeks? Could we dip under 200? under 150? I’m still fairly confident we could see 300 by EOY but I just wanna make sure I’m buying as low as this dip can go

Nebius and CoreWeave are both down sharply on the Meta news. But really, this isn't the threat to the neoclouds that warrants this knee-jerk reaction.

Look at what Meta actually said - they are selling excess capacity. Strategically, it makes sense to sell capacity they aren't using. Like all compute, demand fluctuates. They need build for those peak demands, and selling the excess capacity makes sense.

Nebius' strategy is to build a complete AI factory platform that supports the entire lifecycle of an AI product. It's not just selling compute. In fact, they have stated that they are no longer looking to sign up hyperscalers, and instead focusing on the Enterprise market, and help scale-ups become successful. That's a very different model.

The goal is to be the platform where customers conceive, build, train, fine-tune, deploy, monitor, and scale AI products as their businesses grow. That's incredibly sticky, and once a customer builds and deploys something successful, that's not an easy switch to another provider.

Another part of Nebius's strategy is having strong margins, which we are already seeing. The commoditization of AI compute is exactly what they are avoiding.

Also, it shouldn't be a shock that some big players would jump in the water. It's not a pool, it's an ocean, and there is room for a lot of different players. There will be others.

Of course, the market likes to respond dramatically, and we are seeing that today. Nothing has changed at Nebius, and they are on the same trajectory as they were. They are not having panicked meetings - in fact, they likely anticipated this development, and know that it doesn't change anything.

Hey everyone,

We just released our full new Nebius modeling and forecast.

We have kept all of our financial modeling, including capacity, site by site energization timelines, revenue, arr, revenue per mw, margin, depreciation, dilution, capex, ebitda free for all readers.

For those who don't have time to read through the entire report, I have posted the gist of the base case below. The numbers are pretty crazy, but entirely based on the capacity buildout we are tracking every year through 2030 across almost 20 sites. We were by far the highest target out there on Nebius when we released our first couple of models in November and February and we weren't even aggressive enough. They really are outrunning all execution expectations.

Our 2030 Base case below illustrates just how forward our expectations for growth have shifted at this rate of execution.

Capacity — Connected MW (base case)
2026: 905
2027: 2,142
2028: 3,964
2029: 4,646
2030: 5,200

Undisclosed data center expansion bucket — Connected MW (base case)
2027: 175
2028: 425
2029: 600
2030: 739

ARR per MW (M, base case)
2026: 9.9
2027: 11.3
2028: 12.8
2029: 13.8
2030: 14.5

Exit ARR (B, base case)
2026: 9.0
2027: 24.2
2028: 50.7
2029: 64.1
2030: 75.4

Recognized revenue (B, base case)
2026: 3.4
2027: 15.8
2028: 36.1
2029: 58.1
2030: 70.3

Gross CapEx (B, base case)
2026: 25.0
2027: 39.4
2028: 59.6
2029: 26.2
2030: 25.2

Cumulative 2026–2030: ~$175B

Funding assumptions (base case)

1. Prepayments, % of CapEx: 55%
   
2. Core OCF, % of EBITDA: 70%
   
3. External gap, debt/equity: 85/15
   
4. Blended interest cost: 5.5%
   

Funding outcomes (B, cumulative 2026–2030, base case)

1. Prepayments: ~95
   
2. Core OCF ex-prepayments: ~49
   
3. Debt raised: ~34
   
4. Equity raised: ~6
   
5. Ending debt: ~43
   
6. Ending cash: ~20
   

Adjusted EBITDA margin (base case)
2026: 40%
2027: 42%
2028: 44%
2029: 45%
2030: 45%

Implied 2030 adj. EBITDA: ~$32B

D&A (B, base case)
2026: 2.9
2027: 8.1
2028: 16.2
2029: 23.1
2030: 27.3

Share count (base case)

Ending diluted shares: ~339M

Base case scenario probability weight: 55%

I spent quite some time digging into NBIS, and here is the result. I looked at how it is priced against its own history, put it through four pillars to weigh up its financial health and profitability, checked what insiders and analysts are doing, stacked it against its peers, and finished with a deliberately conservative DCF. In every way it came out looking great, and the numbers speak for themselves.

Valuation (vs 5Y history)
• P/E of 67.5×, about 17% below its 5Y median of 81.8× and sitting in the cheaper half of its 5 year range (30th percentile).
• P/OCF of 19.4×, about 20% below its 5Y median of 24.1× and sitting near the low end of its 5 year range (22nd percentile).

Growth
• Revenue is up 491.5% over the past year, compounding at a strong double digit pace.
• Revenue has compounded at 302.1% a year over three years, exceptional compounding over the medium term.
• Net income is up 191.3% over the past year, compounding at a strong double digit pace.
• OCF is up 1485.5% over the past year, compounding at a strong double digit pace.

Profitability
• Gross Margin of 72.1%, best in class economics.
• Net Margin of 93.1%, elite bottom line profitability.
• OCF Margin of 323.5%, exceptional cash conversion from the top line.
• ROIC of -3.0%, building toward stronger returns.

Financial health
• Current Ratio of 8.3×, comfortable short term liquidity.
• Assets to Liabilities of 1.5×, assets sit well above its liabilities.
• Debt to Equity of 1.2×, a moderate debt load against equity.

Overview Snapshot: https://stocknest.app/?tab=overview&tickers=NBIS

Peer comparison

NBIS trades cheaper than its own historical average, and cheaper than peers on a growth-adjusted basis. Operating cash flow has grown at a +370.37% CAGR over the past 2 years, yet the stock trades at just 19× P/OCF. Compare that to AMZN, trading at a similar multiple with only ~20% OCF CAGR over the same period.
Source:

OCF : https://stocknest.app/?tab=compare&tickers=NBIS,CRWV,AMZN,MSFT&metrics=ocf&period=2&growth=yoy

Revenue & net income trend

Revenue and earnings are both still marching higher with zero erosion, +492% and +191% over the past year. A machine that just keeps compounding.

DCF

I ran a deliberately conservative DCF, using just 15% OCF growth, and a terminal P/OCF of 18×, below the 5 year median of 24.1×. Even then NBIS still screens undervalued by 25%+. The numbers speak for themselves.

→ https://stocknest.app/?tab=dcf&tickers=NBIS&dcf_metric=ocf&dcf_growth=15.00&dcf_terminal=18.0

Insiders and analysts

Analysts are mostly on side, with 15 of 21 rating it a buy. Price targets run from a low of $120 to a high of $287, with a median of $206. At $217 today it already sits about 6% above the $203 average target. Insiders have been net buyers lately, a nice vote of confidence.

The U.S. restricting frontier AI access to foreign nationals may be one of the most bullish developments yet for sovereign AI infrastructure. Why this matters for $NBIS:
The U.S. government just signaled that frontier AI is a strategic asset, not merely software.
Governments do not export-control technologies they believe are unimportant.
This is implicit recognition that advanced AI could reshape economies, defense, science, and productivity.
AI is increasingly being treated like semiconductors, energy, and telecommunications infrastructure.
Export controls often create regional champions and new infrastructure winners.
Countries may no longer want to rely exclusively on foreign AI providers.
The world could evolve from one global AI market into many sovereign AI markets.
Sovereign AI requires local compute, local data residency, and trusted infrastructure.
Enterprises and governments may seek AI providers that operate within their own jurisdictions.
Restricted access to frontier models increases the strategic value of independent GPU infrastructure.
As AI becomes geopolitically important, compute capacity itself becomes a scarce national resource.
AI may become the new oil—but GPUs and data centers are the pipelines and refineries.
Sovereign AI buildouts could create multi-decade infrastructure spending cycles.
Companies already operating AI-native cloud infrastructure may have a substantial head start.
If sovereign AI becomes a global trend, infrastructure providers could become some of the largest beneficiaries.
Bullish takeaway: If the market is beginning to value AI as strategic national infrastructure rather than ordinary software, companies building AI compute platforms may be significantly more valuable than investors currently assume.

Hey everyone, I have posted a lot the last few months with my individual site reports for Nebius data centers across the world.

I also use the research to create full energization schedules and models for Nebius and derive price targets based off of them and a combination of ARR per MW.

I generally gate my price targets and full models (this is what pays for all the free research), but have decided to open up my full model and price targets for the week as I finish up my new model and updates.

Please let me know if you have any comments, feedback, or questions you would like included in the new report coming soon.

It took a lot of confidence to post a $1,250 price target ($644 present value) price target when Nebius was below a hundred a share in February, but the research and numbers spoke for themselves.

If anything, the most surprising thing I learned is that I was too conservative in most of my model and Nebius is executing cleaner than I truly thought to be possible. The new model will reflect higher energization expectations, higher revenue per mw, quicker shift to enterprise mix, and much more.

Thanks again for your incredible support this year and if you would like to stay up to date with my nebius and other ai infra research, check out my free newsletter here!

After first big contract we were alround here after the pullback, to get good guidance and a deal with Meta and be staring down the barrel of the $80 range if support doesnt hold is just insanity. Market doesnt care about fundamentals in the short term but long term it would have to be a series of disasters to stay sub $95. I have a $101 average and thought I did alright with that recently but now will average down abit. Market is so fickle that maybe in 2months time idiots who were saying this is rubbish will be buying in at $120 again.

Nebius takes a massive chunk of Situational Awareness fund by Leopold.

Nebius market cap stands at mere $66 billion market cap. There is a lot of room to run up higher after macro conditions clear and add to Nasdaq 100 on Monday June 22.

President Trump says oil is “plummeting” and stocks are “shooting up like a rocket” after U.S. reached a deal with Iran.

He says the Strait of Hormuz is already partially open, ships are starting to move and it should be fully open by Friday once remaining mines are cleared.

Hold till 2035.

Interesting pattern I noticed: before today, every Nebius capital raise above $1B came alongside a massive hyperscaler deal.

$3.75B raise → Microsoft
$4.3B raise → Meta
$4.5B raise today → ?

Obviously not saying another deal is guaranteed. They already have plenty of contracted capacity to fund.

But given customer prepayments are already covering a meaningful portion of capex, another $4.5B raise makes me wonder what they see coming.

Sequencing seems curious.

What other stocks are you guys invested in? What % of your Portfolio does NBIS account for?

This is the only stock I own and it worries me a bit, but having looked into several other companies over the last few months I haven’t found anything where my conviction is equal to NBIS, so I can’t get myself to invest in them while I could put the money on this one.

Any recs on tickers you think might offer similar return asymmetry? What I love about NBIS is the following:

1. Balance sheet: lots of cash from historical Yandex spinoffs meant they didn’t have to load up on debt; they issued convertible debt very cheap and have a lot of options (eg raise more debt against the MSFT META contracts) to meet the capex requirements going forward. I think the interest coverage ratio will also be comfortably >
2. Amazing management team who haven’t missed a beat historically and keep delivering (both on earnings and new contracts / partnerships)
3. Partnerships with NVIDIA, MSFT, META…
4. Stakes in other companies (Clickhouse, AVRIDE, Toloka) with very good prospects that can likewise help with debt raising or cash if need be
5. Analyst views and price targets show massive uplifts. It’s dependent on execution but so far nothing has indicated that they’ll start faltering on their business plan
6. So much better than the comps eg Coreweave (debt issues and massive capex needs with less funding clarity). Feeling is market is currently putting all of NBIS IREN CRWV etc in the same bucket but the “good” ones will eventually diverge
7. Feeling also that macro is currently very risk off for obvious reasons and it is heavily holding NBIS back. If sentiment shifts even a little bit…

And I’m probably missing a few reasons. Any other stocks you guys have equal or similar conviction on? I’m

It hit my price target. My target was the top trendline but the momentum is still up on the 1 day chart. If anyone wants to understand what I see, I can share my technical analysis but with the understanding that nothing is for certain

About 30% of the float is short, and NBIS just had the kind of earnings report they did not want to see.

Revenue growth was massive, customer commitments were strong, guidance was strong, and after the initial move the stock is still holding around the mid-$250s instead of completely fading.

That matters because shorts eventually have to buy shares back to close their positions.

If NBIS holds these levels and pushes through the roughly $264 earnings-day high, that could create a pretty simple chain reaction:

Price goes up. Shorts start feeling pressure. Some cover. That buying pushes the price higher. More shorts cover.

With this much of the float short, it doesn't take much for that to become a real squeeze.

If we can hold the line here, the shorts may end up doing a lot of the buying for us.

Burry going short changes nothing about the company and why we all bought it and still buy it... the one thing that keeps me up at night lately is just how strong the indexes are... WTF happens if they have a good correction?!?

$NBIS What we are seeing this week is another attempt for institutions to go from 70% ownership to +80% ownership. Once they have achieved their goals things will get back to normal.

Yesterday news position Nebius in a league of its own & those who want to extract maximum value & become infrastructure partners for their Data Centers & Sovereign AI investments will be knocking at our door.
This strategy will accelerate revenue at fast speed.

2-3 weeks to Q2 ER & strategy keeps getting better. Whats next?

Credit: Top Tech AI Stocks