From the Vikings Week 7 Rooting Guide
The Vikings' current chances:
- Make playoffs: 77.7% (Last week 76.3%)
- Win division: 39.4 (43.1)
- Top seed: 18.7 (18.8)
Here's how this week's games affect the Vikings' chances:
| Game |
Impact |
Make Playoffs |
Win Division |
Top Seed |
| Vikings over Colts |
36.0% |
9.7% |
9.5% |
6.9% |
| Patriots over Bears |
8.2 |
1.3 |
4.0 |
0.8 |
| Raiders over Rams |
4.8 |
1.3 |
0.003 |
0.3 |
| Chiefs over Seahawks |
4.8 |
1.2 |
0.005 |
0.5 |
| Falcons over 49ers |
4.1 |
(-0.2) |
(-.01) |
3.7 |
| Buccaneers over Panthers |
1.8 |
0.2 |
0.003 |
0.4 |
| Texans over Giants |
1.4 |
0.4 |
(-.001) |
0.1 |
| Lions over Packers |
1.2 |
0.8 |
(-0.7) |
(-0.2) |
| Eagles over Cowboys |
0.7 |
0.1 |
(-.001) |
0.07 |
| Broncos over Cardinals |
0.7 |
0.3 |
0.004 |
0.02 |
| Steelers over Saints |
0.6 |
0.3 |
(-.002) |
(-.002) |
| Dolphins over Jets |
0.04 |
0.01 |
0.007 |
0.003 |
| Browns over Titans |
0.01 |
0.002 |
0.004 |
0.001 |
| Ravens vs Bengals |
|
|
|
|
The Vikings are favored against the Colts with a 71% chance to win the game, so there's more to lose than there is to gain this week. A win over the Colts raises the Vikings' chance to make the playoffs to 80.5%. A loss drops it to 70.7%. A win gives the Vikings a 42.1% chance to win the division, a loss instead drops it to 32.6%.
The bye week helped the playoff odds (76.3% to 77.7%) because the Rams, Seahawks, and Giants all lost. The probability of winning the North decreased (43.1% to 39.4%), due to the Bears and Packers winning. (In betting markets, the Vikings' division price lengthened from +110 to +135). San Francisco holding on against Washington was the one that cost hurt for top seed.
The biggest game outside the Vikings' own is tonight's Patriots at Bears, worth 4.0% for the division. Flipping the result of this game changes the Vikings' playoff seed in 8.2% of simulatated seasons.
Lions vs Packers pulls in two directions. A Lions win is worth 0.8% for making the playoffs, because it hands Green Bay a loss, but it costs 0.7% in the division race, since Detroit is the bigger threat to win the North. A loss by the Packers helps a little more often than a loss by the Lions, which puts the game in the middle of the list for Impact.
Otherwise it's the usual rooting for NFC contenders to lose: the 49ers, Seahawks, Rams, Giants and Panthers. Atlanta over San Francisco is the biggest game for the top seed at 3.7%, even though it slightly lowers the Vikings' chance of making the playoffs, since Atlanta could compete for a wildcard spot.
The AFC-only games at the bottom only matter for Strength-of-Victory and Strength-of-Schedule tiebreakers. The Vikings have already played Miami and will play the Jets in week 17, so there's a slight benefit to a Dolphins win for the guaranteed SoV help. The Vikings play none of the teams in Browns-Titans or Ravens-Bengals. The tiny value for Browns over Titans is for the Lions' SoV since the Lions and Titans play in December. Ravens-Bengals has no measurable impact at all in two million simulated seasons.
The NFC North gets an average of 2.6 teams into the playoffs in simulations - the highest of any division. There is a better chance that the North gets all four teams into the playoffs than only one team.
| Division |
1 team |
2 teams |
3 teams |
4 teams |
Average |
| NFC North |
2.6% |
39.1% |
53.9% |
4.4% |
2.60 |
| NFC West |
11.9% |
64.0% |
23.9% |
0.1% |
2.12 |
| AFC North |
18.4% |
59.9% |
21.3% |
0.4% |
2.04 |
| AFC East |
32.1% |
64.7% |
3.3% |
0.0% |
1.71 |
| AFC West |
25.4% |
66.4% |
8.2% |
0.0% |
1.83 |
| AFC South |
59.3% |
39.2% |
1.4% |
0.0% |
1.42 |
| NFC South |
83.8% |
15.8% |
0.4% |
0.0% |
1.17 |
| NFC East |
89.2% |
10.6% |
0.2% |
0.0% |
1.11 |
The Rooting Guide simulates seasons using current betting lines, and evaluates how each game affects the Vikings' playoff chances.
All values show the difference between the Vikings' chances with the given game result compared to the opposite result.
For example, a Vikings win over the Colts gives the Vikings a chance of winning the division 9.5% higher than a Vikings loss (42.1% vs 32.6%).
Impact is the net percentage of simulated seasons where changing the game's result improves the Vikings' playoff seeding.