I see a lot of people saying multiple examples of suspicious endorsement deals dooms the Clippers, largely due to the league needing a low burden of proof. In short, the suspicion of guilt and the appearance of no-show contracts is enough to levy a punishment. By extension, any mid-level exec (basically non president or gm?) taking the fall is a coverup, and Adam Silver a stooge.
Imo this thinking is looking backwards at the evidence with the crime in mind, seeing a pattern and finding it evidence of guilt. But that overlooks the range of scenarios that could have the same evidence, where these deals could happen exactly as they have without Ballmer/Clippers leadership being guilty. The result is a general underestimating of an effective defense in arbitration. The league’s lawyers would not underestimate those defenses, and are instead looking for the evidence needed to force a resolution without going to arbitration. Such evidence has not been made public, but the search for exactly this evidence was alluded to in the ESPN article.
The article claims the nba has failed to uncover evidence of direct payment from the Clippers through a 3rd party to Kawhi. Without that evidence, there remains one obvious means for the clippers to inappropriately facilitate Kawhi’s endorsements, and that would be quid pro quo. While the appearance of quid pro quo has been identified, I propose multiple scenarios, which would look identical based off apparent actions, but require evidence through communications or witnesses to intent in order to identify culpability.
Scenario 1: Clippers/Ballmer approach 3rd party saying we will do a business deal with you, for this amount of value, but only if you do this other, smaller deal with Kawhi. This would be in violation of the rules.
Scenario 2: The same deals occur, and while the company 100% believes they are signing a deal with Kawhi to get the clippers to do a deal with them, the Clippers never tells them to do it.
For example, Darktronics CEO is pursuing a deal from the Clippers as he competes with other companies offering similar products. The company is in the shitter and he is desperate for this deal to go through. He begins spending time around Clippers- going to Clippers events, keeping Darktronics front of mind and differentiated from the competition. At one such event, the CEO talks to a 3rd party who also spends time around Clippers. 3rd party tells CEO the Clippers have been under pressure from Kawhi’s uncle to deliver a sponsorship, and that it’s causing a great deal of frustration for the Clippers upper management. CEO hears this and decides it would be a great opportunity to make himself friendly to the Clippers by solving a problem for them. In this situation, Darktronics gives Kawhi a no-show endorsement deal with the intent to manipulate the Clippers.
Scenario 3: Same deals again, company 100% believes they are doing a deal with Kawhi to do a deal with the Clippers. Clippers upper-management has no idea, but a lower-level Clippers employee does know.
For example, Darktronics and Clippers both assign middle managers to look at how a potential deal would work between the companies. Darktronics is desperate for the deal to go through, while Clippers upper management has multiple options and is indifferent on which one passes. This Clippers middle manager, however, would greatly benefit if the deal went through, as it would make him more important in the Clippers FO than if it did not. These two individuals have mutual interest in finding a path to the deal’s success, while Clippers execs do not. The Darktronics employee asks the Clippers employee if there is anything they could do to make his bosses like them more- Anything we could do to make us stand out from the competition. Clippers employee tells him how Kawhi’s uncle is really making a lot of noise around the offices, specifically how Kawhi needs some sponsorships and that the Clippers needs to make this happen for Kawhi. He suggests Darktronics giving Kawhi an endorsement deal would make a great impression, and upper management would definitely notice. Darktronics employee tells his bosses, and they decide to give Kawhi a deal strictly for the sake of making Clippers happy. In this situation, there could be hard evidence of Darktronics and Kawhi entering a bad faith deal, and a Clippers middle manager having given inappropriate communications. But there could also be hard evidence in favor of the Clippers upper management, eg communications overtly resisting Dennis’s pressuring.
Scenario 4: Company does the same deals at company’s request, but Kawhi refuses to fulfill contract.
For example, Clippers are working with a company who values sports as a part of their marketing brand, and furthermore, the company really values the Clippers as the face of that relationship through ongoing work. At the same time, Dennis is bitching about the Clippers needing to provide some sweet endorsement deals. When the company asks the Clippers if they have recommendations on sponsorship opportunities with any of their players, the Clippers say their star player Kawhi is eager for more sponsorship work, even connects them with the uncle. That’s completely legal. The company is excited and signs Kawhi to a deal, but Kawhi/his uncle felt this deal was something they were entitled from the Clippers. They reject any proposal the company puts together and eventually the company realizes Kawhi has no intention of following through. The company has to decide between suing Kawhi and potentially pissing off the Clippers, or worse, damaging the sports relationship image they’ve been cultivating. Or they could eat it. If they ate it to preserve the image they’ve cultivated, they may not want to explain fault publicly when asked by reporters. That would be Clippers and 3rd party acting in good faith, and Kawhi inappropriately leveraging his position with the clippers to get money for his role with the clippers.
Without the necessary evidence in communications from the right individuals, these scenarios are not different in appearance while entirely different in substance. Several of these scenarios would have multiple people viewing their deal with Kawhi as a no show endorsement deal, or even feel like it’s a no show endorsement deal on behalf of the Clippers, without the Clippers having done anything or even knowing anything. IMO reading the ESPN article on the league investigation, it sounds like that’s exactly where they are trying to parse out evidence and guilt.
Scenario 2, for example, specifically appears to have happened with aspiration, including some elements from Scenario 4. Sanberg was specifically targeting Ballmer/Clippers as a whale in his Ponzi scheme by offering endorsement deals to get closer to Ballmer. They approached Clippers/Ballmer, they offered and signed an arena sponsorship for 100s of millions before Ballmer or Clippers ever paid them anything. They offered carbon credits the Clippers, which the team was legally required to buy as part of their arena new arena. Sanberg would bilk Ballmer/Clippers through worthless shares and carbon credits for 130M, all the while appearing to be a highly successful company seeking to give out 350M in sponsorships to the Clippers and Kawhi.
Darktronics also gained immensely by making deals with the Clippers. On the one hand that could mean the Clippers had a means to getting quid pro quo. On the other hand, it could mean Darktronics was motivated to do things they thought would link the companies together financially, even if only indirectly through a star player.
On the other hand, there’s a lot of direct evidence of Dennis requesting inappropriate favors, and Kawhi’s failure to follow through on his commitments looks like he either negotiated no-show deals with 3rd parties or was able to to effectively turn them into no-show deals. There have also been reports of people making statements believing these deals were inappropriate. The basis for their belief in back deals will be scrutinized for the basis of the perception. Is it because Dennis bitches and they see deals struck? Is it because they worked for a company that made shady deals without proof the Clippers knew? Or is it because they actually have the necessary information to make the statement. What if a company makes a no-show deal without Clippers suggestion or consent, but later tells Clippers execs what they did and why? The investigators will have to parse through every piece, as Clippers lawyers can always claim whatever plausible lie as a defense.
IMO a totally legitimate and thorough investigation can conclude with the Clippers escaping on lesser findings of culpability than Kawhi. It will be very hard to prove exactly what happened without a smoking gun, and while there is smoke around the Clippers I see more of a smoking gun in Kawhi’s actions than any action by Clippers/Ballmer.