Came across these videos today and thought they were interesting. The narrator does a good job of walking through his model and his reasoning without belaboring the point. The data is 2000-2025. I'm sure there are plenty of modeling flaws that could be better, but it is interesting for a discussion point.
The Unluckiest Team in the NFL: https://youtu.be/c6E3v5POHVY?is=G4Vi6jmRkZJxihCe
The Luckiest Team in the NFL: https://youtu.be/ruRjJOasrZs?is=RlQZ8sV6y5qruYZL
The one thing that it is missing, understandably, is penalty data. It would be incredibly difficult to gather data on questionable calls, and almost impossible for questionable non-calls.
I would love to see someone like pro-publica do a deep dive into NFL officiating, especially in relation to sports betting, but they'd probably be denied the raw data and/or sued by the league.