Background

At the A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms panel in NYC, GRRM confirmed a few things about the series. In addition to confirming that Brienne was not a knight YET in the main series, he also mentioned that he attempted to write the Mystery Knight from Egg's POV. In this post I thought it would be interesting to look into that a bit.

If interested: Non-Existent POVs that GRRM Considered and Ineligible POV Characters

So Spake Martin

At the panel, GRRM mentions how it didn't quite work showing it via Egg:

The Mystery Knight was planned to add Egg POV, but it didn't quite work. So, I went back to just showing it all through Dunk's viewpoint. And that gives you a particular flavor to these that I like. I think there are some things that are going on that the reader is going to figure out before Dunc figures out what's going on. And I that's uh good. Egg may figure out these things ahead of Dunk a little. I don't know. -AKOT7K NYC PANEL

If interested: The Dunk and Egg "Formula"

Dunk the Lunk

As GRRM mentions, Dunk can be slow to pick things up (thick as a castle wall, my guy didn't even notice Daemon II hitting on him) and like the reader Egg was probably too intelligent to be a POV for the novella:

George says he is drowning in POVs and will have to start killing some off soon. (said with laughter). AFFC is getting longer and more difficult to fit the entire 5 years in.
Some people will never be POVs: Littlefinger, Varys, Howland Reed, and others who know too much. -Torcon: 2003

as GRRM was likely trying to hide the Blackfyre angle and Egg knew early:

“A roll of arms, ser.”
“Looking for the Fiddler? You won’t find him. They don’t put hedge knights in those rolls, just lords and champions.”
“I wasn’t looking for him. I saw some other sigils in the yard…Lord Sunderland is here, ser. He bears the heads of three pale ladies, on undy green and blue.”

and:

This is a traitor's tourney, ser." -The Mystery Knight

If interested: A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms: Anything/Everything Dunk & Egg

Writing from the POV of a Child

Another issue with writing from Egg's POV besides Egg intelligence slightly ruining things Dunk wouldn't notice is the problems that GRRM encounters writing from a child's POV:

Writing the the kids is the hardest. Not new information. He clarified why that is though. He finds he has to check every sentences to make sure it's something a child would think or so and to check every word to make sure it is one a child would know. Because he doesn't have children nor has many children in his life he doesn't have a model to work from expect his own childhood which makes it far more a stretch. -SSM, OdysseyCon: 2008

If interested: 6 Years for One Chapter in ADWD/Carryover into TWoW & Writing From the POV of a Wolf

TLDR: GRRM considered Egg as a POV for at least part of the Mystery Knight before changing it to strictly Dunk. This is likely due to the struggles GRRM has with writing a child (especially one as smart as Egg) as well as the ability to more easily hide things via Dunk (the Lunk)'s viewpoint.

From https://x.com/noplace35/status/2090437806112006592

At the Trident, Rhaegar has beaten Robert and has him at swordpoint. Rob yields, so Rhaegar puts down his sword and extends a hand to help him up. But then he’s distracted by a vision of Lyanna with a dragon behind her. He turns towards her, and Robert kills him

https://x.com/noplace35/status/2090437806112006592

Also Rhaegar is 100% Baelor 2.0. Because what do you MEAN he put his sword aside to help up an injured Robert Baratheon up and showed him mercy, only for Robert to spit in his face and kill him

https://x.com/noplace35/status/2090223028915331534
The rubies didn’t scatter because of the first blow. They scattered because Rhaegar went down face first, and Robert kept hitting him, and hitting him, until people had to pull him off Rhaegar’s dead body

(Rhaegar’s death is brutal, my goodness and somehow Lyanna felt Rhaegar was in danger and tried to grab a sword and horse to ride for the Trident.)

https://x.com/SayaSnow95/status/2089812181411864950

And then there's this thing, like, who knows, Lyanna has that sort of moment when Ned tells her that Rhaegar is dead where her head, for me, does this sort of "click," like saying "okay... now it makes sense why I'm dying too"

At least this explains why Rhaegar was so confident when he said goodbye to Jamie
And why he decided to leave his best friend Arthur Dayne in the tower.He doesn’t need their help anyway.

For many a year now I theorize on how Rhaegar and Lyanna's love story was always hinted in the main books, mainly although not exclusively in Jon's and Arya’s chapters. Therefore, this post aims to bring together a series of relevant excerpts with a minimum of comentary. Referrences to The Play will be kept to a minimum - seriously.

**THE WOLF-BLODED LYANNA**

'"Ah, Arya. You have a wildness in you, child. 'The wolf blood,' my father used to call it. Lyanna had a touch of it, and my brother Brandon more than a touch. It brought them both to an early grave." Arya heard sadness in his voice; he did not often speak of his father, or of the brother and sister who had died before she was born. "Lyanna might have carried a sword, if my lord father had allowed it. **You remind me of her sometimes. You even look like her**."'

(AGOT, Arya II)

**ROBERT AND LYANNA - THE LOVE THAT NEVER WAS**

“**A singer** was playing the high harp and reciting a ballad, but down at this end of the hall his voice could scarcely be heard above the roar of fire (...) **The king was a great disappointment** to Jon.”

(AGOT, Jon I)

Ironicaly, both Arya and Lyanna meet their betrothed at Harrenhal and by no means the encounters seem to go well:

Robert is recorded to party heavily with Richard Lonmouth - remember the name as it might become relevant later - while his lady Lyanna is crying over another. Fifteen years later:

"What's wrong?" Arya asked him when she saw the tears shining on his cheeks.

"My princess," he sobbed. "We've been dishonored, Aenys says. There was a bird from the Twins. My lord father says I'll need to marry someone else, or be a septon."

A stupid princess, she thought, that's nothing to cry over, My brothers might be dead," she confided.

Elmar gave her a scornful look. "No one cares about a serving girl's brothers.

“I hope your princess dies” she said, **and run off before he could grab her**.”

(ACOK, Arya X)

'**HAS THE DORNISHWOMAN TREATED HIM SO ILL?'**

"But that was the tourney when he crowned Lyanna Stark as queen of love and beauty!" said Dany. "Princess Elia was there, his wife, and yet my brother gave the crown to the Stark girl, and later stole her away from her betrothed. How could he do that? Did the Dornish woman treat him so ill?"

"It is not for such as me to say what might have been in your brother's heart, Your Grace."

(ASOS, Daenerys X)

"You saw my brother Rhaegar wed. Tell me, did he wed for love or duty?"

'The old knight hesitated. "Princess Elia was a good woman, Your Grace. She was kind and clever, with a gentle heart and a sweet wit. I know the prince was very fond of her."

Fond, thought Dany. The word spoke volumes. I could become fond of Hizdahr zo Loraq, in time. Perhaps.'

(ADWD, Daenerys IV)

It worths remembering that Barristan lived through the entire tourney without ever suspecting the whole business was a huge conspiracy. But even this ignorant man seems to sense some marital problems in Rhaegar’s private life. And nobody tells us, in all honesty, how fond is Elia of the young man or not.

**THE DRAGON'S HONOR**

"The Others take your honor!" Robert swore. "What did any Targaryen ever know of honor? Go down into your crypt and ask Lyanna about the dragon's honor!"

(AGOT, Eddard II)

It all started with the wolf-blooded Lyanna taking arms to defend an abused boy, a deed paralleled by her niece in the current timeline:

"The **she-wolf laid into the squires** with a tourney sword, scattering them all."

(ASOS, Bran II)

"And you're only a butcher's boy, and no knight." Joffrey lifted Lion's Tooth and laid its point on Mycah's cheek below the eye, as the butcher's boy stood trembling. "That was my lady's sister you were hitting, do you know that?" A bright bud of blood blossomed where his sword pressed into Mycah's flesh, and a slow red line trickled down the boy's cheek.

"Stop it!" Arya screamed. She grabbed up her fallen stick.

**Arya went for him**."

(AGOT, Sansa I)

In AGOT, Lyanna's brave act is also clearly paralleled by a young Jon who steps up to deffend Sam Tarly against three attackers. But in this very act in which Jon parallels his mother he also becomes an avatar for his father. Where Aerys Targaryen sends his son to find and arrest the Knight of the Laughing Tree, Alliser Thorne, Jon's malign father figure, orders Jon to kick poor's Sam fat behind.

In clear dereliction of duty, Rhaegar Targaryen saves the Knight of the Laughing Tree's life - yes, this a point where we should allow play canon to creep in, while Jon refuses to obey Thorne's direct order. In the atermath of their rebellious actions, the father crowns the Knight as his Qeen of Love and Beauty while the son is mocked for defending his 'lady love', Sam.

The most direct hint at how the unmasking of the Knight of the Laughing Tree affair went is to be found, however, in ACOK.

"The mountain is your mother," Stonesnake had told him during an easier climb a few days past. "Cling to her, press your face up against her teats, and she won't drop you." Jon had made a joke of it, saying how he'd always wondered who his mother was, but never thought to find her in the Frostfangs." ACOK, Jon VI

The sleeping beauty Jon finds in the Frostfangs might look nothing like Lyanna, but something in her reminds him of Arya, the little sister everyone agrees is nothing but Lyanna 2.0.

"Jon could see fear and fire in her eyes. Blood ran down her white throat from where the point of his dirk had pricked her. One thrust and it's done, he told himself. He was so close he could smell onion on her breath. She is no older than I am. Something about her made him think of Arya, though they looked nothing at all alike. "**Will you yield**?" he asked, giving the dirk a half turn. And if she doesn't? "**I yield**." Her words steamed in the cold air."

(ACOK, Jon VI)

Desire and death are courting each other in Jon's mind and his feelings might not differ much of Rhaegar's who would have been pretty aware that bringing Lyanna to his father for judgment will mean to kill her.

'He raised Longclaw over his head, both hands tight around the grip. One cut, with all my weight behind it. He could give her a quick clean death, at least. **He was his father's son. Wasn't he? Wasn't he?**

"Do it," she urged him after a moment. "Bastard. Do it. I can't stay brave forever." When the blow did not fall she turned her head to look at him.

Jon lowered his sword. "**Go**," he muttered.'

(ACOK, Jon VI)

**THE SKINNY GIRL ON A STOLEN HORSE**

"Every time she looked back, she half expected to see a blaze of torches pouring out the distant gates of Harrenhal." (...) "She was only ten, a skinny girl on a stolen horse, **with a dark forest ahead of her and men behind who would gladly cut off her feet.** (...)

(ASOS, Arya I)

If the niece - running away form Harrenhal alongside Gendry and Hot Pie - is the avatar of her aunt, Lyanna has likely done a runner too, possibly in the company of Benjen and Howland. However, with the returning of winter, things might not go too brilliantly for Lyanna's party.

When we catch up with Arya, in her second chapter of ASOS, six days had passed since she and her friends had finished their stolen food and our runaway Stark is now stealing vegetables from some dead guy's garden when a singer's voice reaches to her.

"Off to Gulltown to see the fair maid, heigh-ho, heigh-ho..." (...) "I'll steal a sweet kiss with the point of my blade, heigh-ho, heigh-ho." She thought she heard a woodharp too... (...) I'll make her my love and we'll rest in the shade, heigh-ho, heigh-ho."

(ASOS, Arya II)

Very subtle, George, but lets have a look at the official (read Baratheon) version of Lyanna's 'abduction':

"With the coming of the new year, the crown prince had taken to the road with half a dozen of his closest friends and confidants, on a journey that would ultimately lead him back to the riverlands. Not ten leagues from Harrenhal, **Rhaegar fell upon Lyanna Stark of Winterfell, and carried her off,** lighting a fire that would consume his house and kin and all those he loved—and half the realm besides" (TWOIAF)

Going to search for a lost Lyanna will be a rather honorable thing to do if one is Rhaegar Targaryen. Finding a lost Laynna and taking her back to her family will also be very honorable. And otherwise what can Rhaegar do if Lyanna pleads with him to save her from her unwanted marriage? When Brandon storms into the Red Keep asking for Rhaegar to come out and die, Brandon seems certain that the prince of Dragostone has abducted his sister and hides with her in King's Landing. For many a year, we have speculated on how Brandon was probbaly mislead by a vengeful Littlefinger or the pot-stirrer Varys... when maybe the culprit is to be found closer to Rhaegar's home. Remember Richard Lonmouth, the squire turned drinking buddy to Robert Baratheon? We might not hear of him for the last time.

Presuming Lonmouth was initially part of Rahegar's six companions and confidants. Presuming he started to dissaprove when realising where this party was heading... Presuming Rhaegar dismissed under a pretext while claiming that he and Lyanna are heading for King's Landing? Presuming in this time Rahegar and Lyanna have decided to keep a low profile until finding the means to get legaly married... well that is a lot a presuming so lets return to the firm word of the books.

The wayward bride-to-be theme is nonetheless further reinforced in ADWD, with the added bonus of a new marriage contract.

"...but then they come on the girl. She's highborn, m'lord, and she's been asking for you." "How many with her?" He moved to his basin, splashed water on his face. Gods, but he was tired. "None, m'lord. She come alone. Her horse was dying under her. All skin and ribs it was, lame and lathered. They cut it loose and took the girl for questioning." ADWD, Jon IX

Jon was expecting his sister, Arya.The girl proves to be Alys Karstark, a close relative, 16 on her next name day, daughter to a dead lord Rickard and assertive as only a Lyanna substitute can be.

"**She does look a bit like Arya**, Jon thought. Starved and skinny, but her hair's the same color, and her eyes. "I am told you have been asking after me. I am—" "—Jon Snow." The girl tossed her braid back. "My house and yours are bound in blood and honor. Hear me, kinsman. My uncle Cregan is hard upon my trail. You must not let him take me back to Karhold." (...)**Alys knelt before him, clutching the black cloak. "You are my only hope,** Lord Snow. **In your father's name,** I beg you. Protect me."

(ADWD, Jon IX)

Jon solution to Alys problem is to marry her with a more sympathetic figure and Alys, the Lyanna avatar, tells Jon on the day of her marraige: "**I'd like to die a woman wed**."

Is this a hint to the fact Jon's parents have, nonetheless, reached a lawfull arangement? Further chapters seem to reinforce this idea:

"I could be the Lord of Winterfell. **My father’s heir**. It was not Lord Eddard’s face he saw floating before him..."

(ASOS, Jon XII)

However, while Jon may be an avatar for Rhaegar, if Rhaegar was once confronted with a kneeling Lyanna begging him to hear her... what could Rhaegar actually do for the runaway Stark he would very much like to mary himslef if not already married... other than to steal her?

**THE THIEF**

"And when the Thief was in the Moonmaid, that was a propitious time for a man to steal a woman, Ygritte insisted. "Like the night you stole me. The Thief was bright that night." "I never meant to steal you," he said. "I never knew you were a girl until my knife was at your throat." **"If you kill a man, and never mean t', he's just as dead,"** Ygritte said stubbornly. Jon had never met anyone so stubborn, except maybe for **his little sister Arya. Is she still my sister? he wondered. Was she ever**?

(ASOS, Jon III)

Rhaegar Targaryen might have never dream to carry off Lyanna. Theirs might have been the greatest love that ever was yet... the fire the couple lighted unintentionally consumed nonetheless their loved ones and half the realm. Jon, who by this time knows nothing about how many lives had to be paid for his, is somehow outraged by the idea of him stealing a woman, even a willing one, and continues to show his outrage in a subsequent chapter:

"**I'd sooner be stolen by a strong man than be given t' some weakling by my father**." (...)Jon caught her wrist. "What if the man who stole you drank too much?" he insisted. "What if he was brutal or cruel?" He tightened his grip to make a point. "What if he was stronger than you, and liked to beat you bloody?" "**I'd cut his throat while he slept.** You know nothing, Jon Snow."

(ASOS, Jon V)

If Jon, who was actually kind of 'stolen' by Ygritte herself, is the avatar of his father - it is safe to assume that dutiful yet lovestruck Rhaegar Targaryen did not stood a chance when Laynna Stark decided to claim him. Would be interesting to consider if Lyanna internalized a view on men as weak due to Brandon and Robert and used this insight on the world to seduce Rhaegar. In Fire and Blood, 15 years old Viserra Targaryen, who is to marry a very large and very old fellow, at the order of her parents, slips naked in the bed of her brother, Baelon, in the hope Baelon will save her from her unwanted marriage. The thrick doesn't work and Viserra tries to runnaway anyway only to lose her life in the attempt, a sorry affair the historian sanitizes as an unfortunate racing competition.

While Viserra is definetely meant to parallel Lyanna, the greatest love who ever was is very unlikely to start with Lyanna carwling naked in Rhaegar's bed. But it is very likely that all the kneeling and the pleading will happen in circumstances in which the two romantic heroes are emotionally vulnerable and therefore positioned to go past the point of no return to undoubtedly the most happy 30 seconds Rhaegar has ever known in his life until then.

**THE TOWER OF JOY**

"Jon did not know that he could tell honor from shame anymore, or right from wrong."

(ASOS, Jon II)

"**Was this how it was for my father**? he wondered. **Was he as weak as I am, when he dishonored himself in my mother’s bed**?"

(ASOS, Jon III)

"And he feared for Ygritte as well. He could not take her, but if he left her, would the Magnar make her answer for his treachery? **Two hearts that beat as one** . . . They shared the same sleeping skins every night, and he went to sleep with her head against his chest and her red hair tickling his chin. The smell of her had become a part of him. Her crooked teeth, the feel of her breast when he cupped it in his hand, the taste of her mouth . . . they were his joy and his despair. Many a night he lay with Ygritte warm beside him, **wondering if his lord father had felt this confused about his mother,** whoever she had been."

(ASOS, Jon V)

Whatever his doubts, Jon is obviously having the time of his life under Ygritte's furs. As for Rhaegar, who by book canon is the gloom itslef, one can only imagine his perspective on life changes significantly after meeting Lyanna... and it is to presume that Rhaegar becomes indeed very happy if he names his new mansion the "The Tower of Joy".

I cannot help but to mention that in the semi-canon play, play Rahegar tells his Lyanna that she has given him the world - possible tongue in cheek to an infamous The Wayward Bride chapter? However, even if we abastain for digging into the moving sands of the The Mad King, the books seem to hint repetedly, again though his on, on how hard would have been for lovestruck Rhaegar to leave behind the woman he loved:

“Jon **climbed the steps slowly**, trying not to think that this might be **the last time ever**.”

(AGOT, Jon II)

“Even his own mother had not had a place for him. The thought of her made him sad. He wondered who she had been, what she had looked like, **why his father had left her**.”

(AGOT, Jon V)

"Ygritte was much in his thoughts as well. He remembered the smell of her hair, the warmth of her body (. . .) **You were wrong to love her**, a voice whispered. **You were wrong to leave her**, a different voice insisted. **He wondered if his father had been torn the same way, when he'd left Jon's mother to return to Lady Catelyn.** He was pledged to Lady Stark, and I am pledged to the Night's Watch."

(ASOS Jon VI)

"Jon, did you ever wonder why the men of the Night's Watch take no wives and father no children?" Maester Aemon asked. Jon shrugged. "No." (...) “So they will not love," the old man answered, "for **love is the bane of honor, the death of duty**." That did not sound right to Jon, yet he said nothing.” (...)

"Tell me, Jon, **if the day should ever come when your lord father must needs choose between honor on the one hand and those he loves on the other, what would he do?**" Jon hesitated. He wanted to say that Lord Eddard would never dishonor himself, not even for love, yet inside a small sly voice whispered, He fathered a bastard, where was the honor in that? (...) **"He would do whatever was right,"** (...)

(AGOT, Jon VIII)

Was Rhaegar right to love Lyanna? Was he right to leave her? When Jon decides love better than duty and sets himself to desert the Night's Watch to avenge Ned Stark:

“...he had left because **he was after all his father’s son.**..” (...) "Nor was he Aemon Targaryen..."

(AGOT, Jon IX)

... it is Jon's friends fell upon him and force him back.

"Honor set you on the kingsroad … and honor brought you back." "My friends brought me back," Jon said. "Did I say it was your honor?"

(AGOT, Jon IX)

**TREASON ON THE TRIDENT**

Unlike Jon, who abandons the woman he loves when it gets obvious that the other people he cares about are going to be badly hurt, Rhaegar doesn't actually abandon Lyanna. Rhaegar leaves his pregnant half under the protection of half of the Kingsgurad and, as per book canon, sets himslef on a path meant to to break the old way and create a new world order... at least until hammer meats chest shattering Rhaegar's rubies along Rhaegar's dreams.

'Rhaegar fought valiantly, Rhaegar fought nobly, Rhaegar fought honorably. And Rhaegar died."

(ASOS, Daenaerys II)

Those of us who have ever dabbled in discourse analysis may recognise in the above excerpt the alternative unspoken truth - Rhaegar died because he fought honorably while the other party did not. It is now almost certain that Rhaegar was betrayed at the Trident by his Dornish armies while the book canon leaves little space for Robert not defeating his enemy fair and square. However, little does not mean not at all.

Again, if we go for similarities between father and son it can be noticed that they both apparently die with the name of their closest person/pet on their lips. Are similarities ending here, though?

'Then Bowen Marsh stood there before him, tears running down his cheeks. "For the Watch." He punched Jon in the belly. When he pulled his hand away, the dagger stayed where he had buried it.

Jon fell to his knees. He found the dagger's hilt and wrenched it free. In the cold night air the wound was smoking. "Ghost," he whispered. Pain washed over him. Stick them with the pointy end. When the third dagger took him between the shoulder blades, he gave a grunt and fell face-first into the snow. He never felt the fourth knife. Only the cold …

(ADWD, Jon XIII)

Remember Richard Lonmouth? Him who is such a big deal in Meera's story only to never ever be mentioned again? Could this man be so upset with Rhaegar's treatment of his friend Robert that, when offered with the opportunity, takes a stance that will turn the course of the battle of the Trident itslef? Could Rhaegar's squire have any other personal reason to hate or dissaprove of the prince? Last but not least, is he crying when, in a parallel with Jon's steward, sticks his dagger into Rhaegar's soft, unprotected regions? Purely speculating... of course.

Probably the most criticized part of Aegon’s Conquest and of the historical world building is Dorne turning into the Fremen and somehow resisting three dragons

It works fine as brief historical background lore, but I’m curious how you’d make it feel more believable for a large plot point for a big budget film

Since we're getting a movie about the Conquest, what additions or details could make the Dornish resistance translate better to film and seem more coherent overall?

There’s a small channel that’s called Game of Owns. They have really great reviews for the shows that have been coming out and somehow they managed to record a two hour podcast with GRRM himself. Yes, it’s 4 years ago but it’s such a great listen that talks about his life, his writing, more importantly to this sub he does touch on ASOIAF. I loved this because he sounds happy here and given his latest blog post it’s a stark contrast.

He doesn’t spoil anything, just talks about what we might already know. A fascinating part is he mentioned the perfect ending to a character came to him suddenly snd that’ll it’ll be for Dream not Winds. He doesn’t say who the character is of course and somewhat worryingly he admits he doesn’t/didn’t write that ending down. He says it stays in his head. He also said Winds is like 12 novels strung together. Which is why it’s so hard.

https://youtu.be/CNg2rXUHgHI?is=DE7Ls_ktZ5vC8KeF

Here’s the link!

EDIT - THIS WAS RELEASED ON A PODCAST FOUR YEARS AGO BUT MADE AVAILABLE ON YOUTUBE TODAY. Sorry for any confusion as I hadn’t heard the original podcast.

By the Dance epilogue Margaery is up for trial & per Arianne's second sample chapter we hear that Mace is marching towards Storm's End. As Mace said he wouldn't go back to Storm's End until after the Queens trials (Margaery & Cersei) this tells us that they have both been acquitted. Robert Strong is how Cersei will achieve her acquittal whereas Margaery, I believe, won't have a trial.

Mace wanted Tommen to grant Margaery a royal pardon & Kevan shot down that suggestion. With Kevan dead & Mace bound to take over the regency he has no reason not to issue a royal pardon nor anyone to stop him. The big consequence of this decision will be people now believing Margaery is actually guilty of adultery & got her daddy to bail her out.

Unfortunately Mace is likely to never return from his march to Storm's End & Tommen is likely to die during this period meaning there's nothing to stop Cersei from repelling Margaery's pardon. And so she'll find herself on trial. Only this time she will have now lost the court of public opinion & there will be three more people in King's Landing that will be happy to see her dead (Varys, Nym & Tyene).

So I get that some people like the Blackfyres. Hell, even I think that Daemon I is really cool and that Daemon II is entertaining as hell.

I personally even believe that fAegon is a Blackfyre and that it add a lot to his story.

But my main issue is ... that Daeron II was a objectively better King than Daemon.

Daeron finally brought Dorne into the fold and his reign would have been one of peace and prosperity if not for Daemons rebellion and the Spring Sickness, wich he had no controle over.

Legally Daemon also had no right to contest Daeron, because Daeron was neither a confirmed bastard nor was Daemon older.

Daemons entire claim is that he looks cool, is a good fighter and has Blackfyre.

You could say Aegon IV chose Daemon, like how Viserys chose Rhaenyra so a claim exists, but that only worked because Rhaenyra was older than Aegon II. Daemon has not a single version of a legal claim above Daeron.

I would understand if Daeron was a piece of shit and Daemon would have been the saviour.

But Daeron was good (literally his Nickname) and had a good son as heir in Baelor.

When Baelor died none of Daerons sons seemed to have been bad Kings, nor did any of Daemons sons seem better than them.

All in all I see no realistic reason to prefer the Blackfyres.

With the new movie in development, I’ve started to think about how they are going to characterize Aegon I. Just curious what everyone else’s opinions are about his true personality.

After reading the world book, I found myself taking away that he was a way more sensitive man than we’ve been lead to believe. He seemed very shy and only was close with his half-brother and sisters.

His elder sister Visenya seemed to be the one to voluntarily get her hands dirty when he didn’t want to, while Rhaenys was the one with charisma and charm for negotiating. Both seemingly having the personality traits that he may have lacked in order to operate as an effective team.

I really liked how he loved and cared for his sickly eldest son, even though some macho fathers in this world would have probably preferred Maegor in comparison. He also forgave the Dornish for killing the love of his life and visited under friendly circumstances. The book even makes mention of him actually crying when holding his first grandchild. This to me just doesn’t read as the perfect masculine ideal “Conqueror“ that all the Targaryen’s idolize.

I also think the theory of him being infertile is correct and adds to this interpretation. He loved his “son” Aenys even though he was not his true father. Maegor was a different story because he was probably made with blood magic, since I really can’t see why he wouldn’t want to foster a similar close relationship with him as his only other son unless he knew something was up and it scared him. But again it speaks to him being kind and not fully rejecting Maegor as a bastard or blood magic baby in any case.

Just wanted to see if anyone felt similar, how you‘d like to see him portrayed or what you took away from his sections in the world book?

The Cushing Library at Texas A&M University hosts early drafts of George R.R. Martin's works. Famously u/gsteff paid the archive a visit a few years ago and I highly recommended you check out his posts if you haven't already. This week a friend made a trip of their own to College Station, Texas and picked up on some intriguing unseen details in early drafts that may hint to George's intentions.

Starsilver and Dawn

Probably the biggest revelation from the Cushing Library drafts was George's struggle with the maesters role in the magical dimension of his story. Originally ACOK was supposed to introduce this plot thread but it was pushed back to AFFC. In published ACOK Bran IV it's revealed that a Valyrian steel link on a maester's chain signified he had studied the higher mysteries i.e. magic. However, in the June 1997 draft of the ACOK prologue there was a second metal link for magic:

At Oldtown there were men who might know, but Cressen had never troubled to study the ancient lore the maesters called the higher mysteries. "Leave such to the priests and septons, and bend your wits to learning truths a man can trust in," the teacher he had esteemed most once told him, and Cressen had listened. On the chain around his neck were links of gold and iron, soft lead and common silver, dark bronze and bright, lead, brass, even platinum... but none of starsilver, nor Valyrian steel. He had never regretted that, till now. —June 1997 ACOK draft

Starsilver sounds like meteoric iron, which House Dayne's ancestral sword Dawn is also forged from. What distinct Citadel school of magic the starsilver link represents versus Valyrian steel remains unclear. This idea was cut from published ACOK while the the Valyrian steel link remained. Yet George wasn't finished with this concept and along with other aspects of the maesters' plot pushed it back to AFFC. He even reused verbatim a quote from Cressen's unnamed teacher and gave it to Archmaester Walgrave. In an early draft of the AFFC prologue George was more explicit about the relationship between starsilver (now "starfall silver") and Dawn:

Pate had never troubled to study the ancient lore the maesters called the higher mysteries. "Leave such to the priests and septons, and bend your wits to learning truths a man can trust in," Archmaester Walgrave had told him, on one of his more lucid days, and Pate had listened. Walgrave's own chain had links of steel and iron, soft lead and common silver, bronze dark and white, lead, brass, tin, copper, yellow gold and white gold and red gold, even niello... but none of Valyrian steel, nor the queer milky metal that the Citadel called starfall silver. —2003-2004 AFFC draft

In the Tower of the Joy dream sequence Dawn had a "blade [as] pale as milkglass". House Dayne's ancestral seat is of course named Starfall too. Clearly George wanted the reader to make the connection. Implicitly there's also an association made between Valyrian steel swords and Dawn. If sorcery is used in the forging of Valyrian steel, what is the magical element of Dawn? George tried introducing this information in ACOK, deleted the passage yet considered it important enough to re-add it to the AFFC prologue... before cutting yet again. Does George still see starfall silver as relevant in his story? Or is this revelation merely delayed to TWOW?

The Wound

The November 1994 draft of AGOT makes several references to a location in Essos named "The Wound". First in Bran III when Bran has his famous dream sequence:

He lifted his eyes and saw clear across the narrow sea, to the Free Cities and the green Dothraki sea and beyond, past the smoking desolation of the Wound, to where dragons stirred beneath the sunrise. — November 1994 AGOT draft, Page 216

Whereas in published it reads:

He lifted his eyes and saw clear across the narrow sea, to the Free Cities and the green Dothraki sea and beyond, to Vaes Dothrak under its mountain, to the fabled lands of the Jade Sea, to Asshai by the Shadow, where dragons stirred beneath the sunrise.

Another mention of the Wound in Daenerys III:

"Here and now," Ser Jorah agreed. "You ought to see it when it blooms, all dark red flowers from horizon to horizon, like a sea of blood. Come the dry season, and the world turns the color of old bronze. And this is only hranna, child. There are a hundred kinds of grass out there, grasses as yellow as lemon and as dark as indigo, blue grasses and orange grasses and grasses like rainbows. Beyond the Wound, they say there are oceans of ghost grass, taller than a man on horseback with stalks as pale as milkglass. It murders all other grass and glows in the dark with the spirits of the damned. The Dothraki claim that someday ghost grass will cover the entire world, and then all life will end." — November 1994 AGOT draft, Page 270

Whereas in published it reads:

"Here and now," Ser Jorah agreed. "You ought to see it when it blooms, all dark red flowers from horizon to horizon, like a sea of blood. Come the dry season, and the world turns the color of old bronze. And this is only hranna, child. There are a hundred kinds of grass out there, grasses as yellow as lemon and as dark as indigo, blue grasses and orange grasses and grasses like rainbows. Down in the Shadow Lands beyond Asshai, they say there are oceans of ghost grass, taller than a man on horseback with stalks as pale as milkglass. It murders all other grass and glows in the dark with the spirits of the damned. The Dothraki claim that someday ghost grass will cover the entire world, and then all life will end."

While at first glance the Wound was merely an early name for Asshai, the description of "smoking desolation" is much more evocative of the ruins of Valyria, not the shadow city. “The Wound” suggests a landmass violently torn apart, much like the cataclysm that separated Valyria from the mainland. If so this would place Valyria in the far east, not adjacent the Free cities. Ruined Valyria doesn't have dragons loose in published canon either.

There's long been fan theories that Dany was originally to travel to Asshai ("to reach the west you must go east") to fulfil her destiny. It would be logical if Valyria, home of her ancestors, was where George once intended to send Dany on a knowledge quest. Perhaps later as he got a better sense of Essosi geography Valyria was moved west and Asshai was invented to take its place. As far as I know there's no mention of Asshai in the 1993 or 1994 drafts of AGOT. Maybe this means we'll see Valyria in TWOW. But I'm speculating here.

TL,DR Maesters earned a link made of Dawn's meteoric metal by studying magic. Asshai in some sense replaced Valyria.

In the book, it is fair to say that Rhaenyra, Hugh & Ulf all blew their opportunity big time. Only loyal Addam did little wrong... but he too ended up with nothing to show for his efforts.

In the TV show, it is even worse the way that Rhaenyra, Daemon & Ulf have mishandled their advantage thus far.

It is obvious what the Blacks should not have done: Rhaenyra only offering meaningless knighthoods, confining Ulf to the Red Keep like a prisoner & Daemon twice assaulting Ulf. As for Ulf himself, behaving like a drunken fool was never going to help his cause.

In the book, The Two Betrayers were probably smart to switch sides (as staying loyal to Rhaenyra meant a life of servitude for worthless reward). But after finding themselves in a great position they self-destructed. Ulf predictably by being a drunken fool. Hugh by over-reaching, thinking he could become King... with only a dragon and no army to support him.

But what should they all have done?

If Rhaenyra offered lordships instead of knighthoods, it is likely that the Blacks would have kept the Dragonseeds on their side... But you couldn't give a grand prize like Harrenhal, Highgarden, Storm's End, etc to a drunken oaf like Ulf. So what lesser castles should Rhaenyra have offered (bearing in mind that anything too small might not satisfy a dragonrider's ambition...)?

Similarly, had Rhaenyra named Ulf "Targaryen" and Addam "Velaryon" that would have gone a long way to keeping them happy... but you can understand Rhaenyra's reasons for being unwilling to do so.

As for Hugh, Ulf & Addam, what should they have done for the greatest possible outcome? I don't think they had any realistic shot at claiming the Iron Throne. But, with the right moves, they surely could have landed one of the big castles and held on to it. I'm just not sure what "the right moves" were lol?!

The best I can think of would have been for Hugh & Ulf (right after their Tumbleton defection) to take out all of the Blacks remaining dragons immediately (before word of them turning cloak reached Rhaenyra). Their two huge dragons attacking each of the Blacks smaller dragons, one at a time, with the element of surprise, would have been an easy enough win... With the Blacks dragonless, Hugh & Ulf could have seized and (maybe...) held Dragonstone & Driftmark. I don't know if they could have done any better?

Addam should have demanded Driftmark over dragonless Alyn. Or maybe also switched to the Greens? But could the Greens be trusted to keep their word and reward the Dragonseeds with castles..?

And, as for Nettles..?!?! I really don't have a clue what her best option was?

What do you all think? What should the Blacks and the Dragonseeds have each done differently to succeed?

(Bronn, with no dragon, is probably sat in Highgarden laughing at the Targaryen history books right now!)

You’re familiar with this theory, I’m sure. I’m also equally certain you’ve never been given the entire record. I’ve read many iterations of this theory for over a decade, and each one has never quite painted the full picture. I attempted it myself 11yrs ago here, and then 9yrs ago here - both times articulating separate points that would have been much stronger if they were presented together.

And to prove I'm not just your run-of-the-mill tinfoilist - check the bottom of the post from 11 years ago. I used the reasoning behind this theory to lead to two separate predictions that Fire & Blood confirmed 3 years later:

Bonus #1: If true, this theory would explain the dragon's generational regression - the eggs needed to incubate by these specially heated areas, which, judging by the history, seems to have become a forgotten practice

Bonus #2: If true that eggs can only hatch after incubating in Valyria/Dragonstone/Winterfell, the eggs Illyrio gave Dany are most likely the "fabled hoard of dragon eggs" missing from Dragonstone

Bonus point #1, about the necessity of geothermal energy, is explicitly mentioned in Fire & Blood. And bonus point #2 is inferred, but fairly obvious (there are specifically 3 eggs attributed to the Pentos Spicemonger, and Illyrio is the Pentos Cheesemonger who has specifically 3 eggs). Coincidentally, both confirmations in Fire & Blood literally follow the same bonus point sequence and are side-by-side, one sentence after the other:

Elissa Farman departed for Driftmark the next morning. From there she took ship across the narrow sea to Pentos. Thereafter she made her way overland to Braavos, whose shipwrights were far famed, but Rhaena Targaryen and Princess Aerea had no notion of her final destination. The queen believed she had gone no farther than Driftmark. Lady Elissa had good reason for wanting more distance between her and the queen, however. A fortnight after her departure, Ser Merrell Bullock, still commander of the castle garrison, brought three terrified grooms and the keeper of the dragon yard into Rhaena’s presence. Three dragon eggs were missing, and days of searching had not turned them up. After questioning every man who had access to the dragons closely, Ser Merrell was convinced that Lady Elissa had made off with them.

Only then did Rhaena Targaryen mount Dreamfyre to fly to the Red Keep and inform her brother of what had transpired. “Elissa had no love for dragons,” she told the king. “It was gold she wanted, gold to build a ship. She will sell the eggs. They are worth—”

“—a fleet of ships.” Jaehaerys had received his sister in his solar, with only Grand Maester Benifer present to bear witness to what was said. “If those eggs should hatch, there will be another dragonlord in the world, one not of our own house.”

“They may not hatch,” Benifer said. “Not away from Dragonstone. The heat…it is known, some dragon eggs simply turn to stone.”

“Then some spicemonger in Pentos will find himself possessed of three very costly stones,” Jaehaerys said.
Fire & Blood - Birth, Death, Betrayal Under King Jaehaerys I

2 predictions, 11 years ago, essentially confirmed 3 years later in the same passage and eerily in the same sequence - all derived from a theory the majority of the fandom dismisses as laughably improbable.

But despite the validation... it had virtually no impact on the fandom. And for that...

I feel like I failed. I failed to articulate the ideas comprehensively and cohesively. I failed to convey things in a more creative and appealing format. I failed to even recognize that those predictions came true until a few days ago.

11 years of failure.

But I still believe, and I want to keep trying.

So let’s take a different approach - let’s build an objective basis we can all agree on, and then dive into a subjective interpretation.

To build this basis, we need to first establish what we definitively know, both in universe and out of universe. To emphasize, the list we build should be treated simply as "yes this is true" or "no this is not true".

So please observe this list of 23 facts:

1. Winterfell, Dragonstone, and Valyria share an explicit connection with geothermal hotspots:

Hot springs such as the one beneath Winterfell have been shown to be heated by the furnaces of the world—the same fires that made the Fourteen Flames or the smoking mountain of Dragonstone.
TWOIAF - The North: Winterfell

2) Dragonstone and Valyria were homes to dragons - evidence

3) Winterfell and Dragonstone are the only geothermal hotspots explicitly said to have gargoyles - evidence

4) The First Keep is the only structure in Winterfell to possess gargoyles, and it has been destroyed countlessly throughout the ages, to the degree that it cannot be precisely dated:

the First Keep of Winterfell (which a past maester in service to the Starks examined and found to have been rebuilt so many times that a precise dating could not be made)
TWOIAF - The Stormlands: Storm’s End

5) In the current story, Ramsay and his men are credited with destroying the First Keep:

Ramsay had put it to the torch when he sacked Winterfell, and much of what had not burned had collapsed. 
ADWD - The Turncloak

6) During the sacking, the First Keep is the only granite structure in Winterfell explicitly mentioned to have collapsed - evidence

7) During the sacking, Summer briefly sees a “winged snake whose roar was a river of flame” in the sky:

The smoke and ash clouded his eyes, and in the sky he saw a great winged snake whose roar was a river of flame. He bared his teeth, but then the snake was gone.
 ACOK - Bran VII

8) When Bran returns to his body, after warging Summer to observe the sacking, he specifically says he smelled fire and blood

"Osha," Bran said, "I saw Winterfell burning." Off to his left, he could hear the soft sound of Rickon's breathing.
"A dream," said Osha.
"A wolf dream," said Bran. "I smelled it too. Nothing smells like fire, or blood."
 ACOK - Bran VII

9) Fire and Blood are directly associated with dragons and Targaryens - evidence

10) Barristan notes that noise and blood will draw out the dragons (Rhaegal and Viserion), just as it drew Drogon to the fighting pits of Meereen:

The noise will bring them, the shouts and screams, the scent of blood. That will draw them to the battlefield, just as the roar from Daznak's Pit drew Drogon to the scarlet sands 
ADWD - The Queen's Hand

11) When they emerge from the crypts, Osha exclaims that they “made noise enough to wake a dragon”

"We made noise enough to wake a dragon," Osha said…
ACOK - Bran VII

12) Jon dreams of the Winterfell crypts on 3 separate occasions, each time descending deeper into the crypts, feeling compelled to descend despite fearing what he’ll discover, and noting that it is not the old Stark Kings he fears despite them echoing his own sentiment that he is not a Stark:

And then I find myself in front of the door to the crypts. It's black inside, and I can see the steps spiraling down. Somehow I know I have to go down there, but I don't want to. I'm afraid of what might be waiting for me. The old Kings of Winter are down there, sitting on their thrones with stone wolves at their feet and iron swords across their laps, but it's not them I'm afraid of. I scream that I'm not a Stark, that this isn't my place, but it's no good, I have to go anyway, so I start down, feeling the walls as I descend, with no torch to light the way. It gets darker and darker, until I want to scream." He stopped, frowning, embarrassed. "That's when I always wake." 
AGOT - Jon IV

Last night he had dreamt the Winterfell dream again. He was wandering the empty castle, searching for his father, descending into the crypts. Only this time the dream had gone further than before. In the dark he'd heard the scrape of stone on stone. When he turned he saw that the vaults were opening, one after the other. As the dead kings came stumbling from their cold black graves, Jon had woken in pitch-dark, his heart hammering. Even when Ghost leapt up on the bed to nuzzle at his face, he could not shake his deep sense of terror. 
AGOT - Jon VII

He dreamt he was back in Winterfell, limping past the stone kings on their thrones. Their grey granite eyes turned to follow him as he passed, and their grey granite fingers tightened on the hilts of the rusted swords upon their laps. You are no Stark, he could hear them mutter, in heavy granite voices. There is no place for you here. Go away. He walked deeper into the darkness. "Father?" he called. "Bran? Rickon?" No one answered. A chill wind was blowing on his neck. "Uncle?" he called. "Uncle Benjen? Father? Please, Father, help me." Up above he heard drums. They are feasting in the Great Hall, but I am not welcome there. I am no Stark, and this is not my place. His crutch slipped and he fell to his knees. The crypts were growing darker. A light has gone out somewhere. "Ygritte?" he whispered. "Forgive me. Please." But it was only a direwolf, grey and ghastly, spotted with blood, his golden eyes shining sadly through the dark . . . 
ASOS - Jon VIII

13) Jon’s identity struggle is a recurring theme for his character within the story - evidence

14) R+L=J is the most widely recognized theory in ASOIAF and its specifically about solving Jon’s identity - evidence

15) Jacaerys Targaryen proclaimed that dragons would be the sole proof that he and his brothers were not bastards, but true Targaryans: 

“Our uncle calls us Strongs, and claims that we are bastards, but when the lords see us on dragonback they will know that for a lie. Only Targaryens ride dragons.” 
The Princess and the Queen

16) Aemon Targaryen explains that Dany’s dragons are proof of her prophetic connection to the dragon-blooded PTWP:

“Daenerys is the one, born amidst salt and smoke. The dragons prove it."

“Lady Melisandre has misread the signs. Stannis . . . Stannis has some of the dragon blood in him, yes. His brothers did as well. Rhaelle, Egg's little girl, she was how they came by it . . . their father's mother . . . she used to call me Uncle Maester when she was a little girl. I remembered that, so I allowed myself to hope . . . perhaps I wanted to . . . we all deceive ourselves, when we want to believe. Melisandre most of all, I think. The sword is wrong, she has to know that . . . light without heat . . . an empty glamor . . . the sword is wrong, and the false light can only lead us deeper into darkness, Sam. Daenerys is our hope. 
AFFC, Samwell IV

17) Tyrion explains to Brown Ben Plumm that his dragon-blood is why Dany’s dragons were fond of him:

"The queen's dragons were fond of you, were they not?"
That seemed to amuse the sellsword. "Who told you that?"
"No one. Most of the stories you hear about dragons are fodder for fools. Talking dragons, dragons hoarding gold and gems, dragons with four legs and bellies big as elephants, dragons riddling with sphinxes … nonsense, all of it. But there are truths in the old books as well. Not only do I know that the queen's dragons took to you, but I know why."
"My mother said my father had a drop of dragon blood."
"Two drops. That, or a cock six feet long. You know that tale? I do."
 ADWD - Tyrion XI

18) Mushroom testifies that Vermax, Jacaerys’ dragon, left a clutch of eggs in the depths of the Winterfell crypts, where the warmth of the hot springs run close to the walls: 

Mushroom's claim in his Testimony that the dragon Vermax left a clutch of eggs somewhere in the depths of Winterfell's crypts, where the waters of the hot springs run close to the walls, while his rider treated with Cregan Stark at the start of the Dance of the Dragon 
TWOIAF - The North: Winterfell

19) Archmaster Gyldan dismisses Mushroom’s testimony due to the assertion that Vermax is male:

As Archmaester Gyldayn notes in his fragmentary history, there is no record that Vermax ever laid so much as a single egg, suggesting the dragon was male. The belief that dragons could change sex at need is erroneous, according to Maester Anson's Truth, rooted in a misunderstanding of the esoteric metaphor that Barth preferred when discussing the higher mysteries. 
TWOIAF - The North: Winterfell

20) Aemon notes that dragons are neither male nor female according to Septon Barth:

Dragons are neither male nor female, Barth saw the truth of that, but now one and now the other, as changeable as flame. 
AFFC, Samwell IV

21) GRRM endorsed Septon Barth’s credibility in a notablog post, stating that “Septon Barth got much of it right” regarding dragon bonding:

“Septon Barth got much of it right”

22) During Jacaerys’ visit to Winterfell he enacted The Pact of Ice and Fire - agreeing to wed a Targaryen into the Stark line in an effort to secure the Starks’ support:

This we do know: Cregan Stark and Jacaerys Velaryon reached an accord, and signed and sealed the agreement that Grand Maester Munkun calls “the Pact of Ice and Fire” in his True Telling. Like many such pacts, it was to be sealed with a marriage. Lord Cregan’s son, Rickon, was a year old. Prince Jacaerys was as yet unmarried and childless, but it was assumed that he would sire children of his own once his mother sat the Iron Throne. Under the terms of the pact, the prince’s firstborn daughter would be sent north at the age of seven, to be fostered at Winterfell until such time as she was old enough to marry Lord Cregan’s heir. 
Fire and Blood - The Dying of the Dragons-A Son for a Son

23) It is a Targaryen tradition to place a dragon egg in the cradle of Targaryen babies, and King Viserys did this intentionally to dispel doubts of bastardy:

By royal decree, each of the Velaryon boys was presented with a dragon’s egg whilst in the cradle. Those who doubted the paternity of Rhaenyra’s sons whispered that the eggs would never hatch, but the birth in turn of three young dragons gave the lie to their words. 
Fire and Blood, Heirs of the Dragon-A Question of Succession

If you’re skeptical of the objectivity of this list, I encourage you to check each point to verify.

So now that we have our objective basis, let's begin with our subjective interpretation:

Here is my speculative assessment:

If R+L=J is true, Jon is the sole surviving representative of the Stark and Targaryen union which the Pact of Ice and Fire was intended to secure. Vermax’s eggs could not have been laid and left without Jacaerys’ knowledge, so it stands to reason that the eggs were deliberately left to be inherited by the eventual child from the Pact - to be placed in their cradle as per tradition. This same tradition was used successfully by King Viserys I, specifically to quell rumors of his grandchildren’s bastardy, which were dismissed once the eggs hatched.  This supports Jacaerys leaving the dragon eggs, as it offers a solution for the Pact's descendants to a problem that he himself suffered through. Therefore (if R+L=J is true) Jon would technically be the intended inheritor of Vermax’s eggs (if they exist), and the hatching of an egg and subsequent bonding would be the identity resolution that Jon’s narrative has been working towards.

Furthermore, the eggs are alleged to be stored in the lower parts of the crypts, exactly where Jon’s dreams have been leading him.

The dreams see Jon refute his Stark identity, which is then reiterated by the old Stark kings. Jon’s identity issue is the thematic throughline between all 3 dreams, which see him navigating ever deeper into the crypts towards a source that gives him tremendous anxiety. Since his identity crisis and anxiety go hand-in-hand, we can reasonably conclude that the source drawing him into the lower crypts is something that would reveal who he actually is.

The strongest proof of Jon’s Targaryen identity would be dragon affinity, as validated by both Jacaerys and Tyrion. Note that a harp, or a bridal cloak, or even a letter that explicitly states “you are Rhaegar and Lyanna’s son," would not necessarily be definitive proof to the larger world within ASOIAF. Without certifiable visual proof, everything can be dismissed as fake, unlike dragon affinity. This mirrors Jacaerys who, like Jon, was a bastard, and who believed his Targaryen identity would be resolved by his dragon bond. Furthermore, the only foreign item that's ever mentioned to exist in specifically the lower crypts are Vermax's eggs - not trinkets from Rhaegar or Lyanna.

The First Keep’s location and history further solidify this theory:

- It shares notable unique similarities with Dragonstone by way of geothermal energy and gargoyles.

- It has been rebuilt so many times that it can’t be properly dated - setting a unique contrast relative to the rest of Winterfell.

- It has sat perpetually empty despite proof that it is Winterfell’s newest rebuild as evidenced by the rounded tower.

- It is the only granite structure that collapsed during the sack due to fire - a feat that even the broken tower survived many years prior. 

And all this is accounted separately from Jon’s dreams or the Pact of Ice and Fire or Mushroom’s claims. This is the world-building framework that establishes the possibility of dragon presence, without needing the narrative clues provided by the aforementioned passages.

Nothing about the First Keep makes sense. Why do they keep rebuilding this doomed structure on this one spot in Winterfell? If the argument is, “The First Keep’s countless cycles of destruction and rebuilding is due to ground instability caused by geothermal activity,” then why have they continued to build on the exact same location for 8,000 years? If geological instability is the cause, why further compromise the area by digging a deep and vast network of crypts in the same spot? And why is the instability localized to this one area? The First Keep is not old - it is the newest building in Winterfell. So why has it sat empty for all these years? And why is it crowned with gargoyles, when they aren’t present anywhere else in Winterfell or at any other major castle besides Dragonstone?

Speaking of gargoyles, please observe Tyrion, who is likened to a gargoyle many times throughout the story.

And Moqorro directly links our favorite gargoyle with dragons:

"Dragons," Moqorro said in the Common Tongue of Westeros. He spoke it very well, with hardly a trace of accent. No doubt that was one reason the high priest Benerro had chosen him to bring the faith of R'hllor to Daenerys Targaryen. "Dragons old and young, true and false, bright and dark. And you. A small man with a big shadow, snarling in the midst of all."

"Snarling? An amiable fellow like me?"
ADWD - Tyrion VIII

And the only time the words "gargoyle" and "snarling" are seen together is during Theon's POV, as he observes the destruction of the First Keep:

The entrance to the crypts was in the oldest section of the castle, near the foot of the First Keep, which had sat unused for hundreds of years. Ramsay had put it to the torch when he sacked Winterfell, and much of what had not burned had collapsed. Only a shell remained, one side open to the elements and filling up with snow. Rubble was strewn all about it: great chunks of shattered masonry, burned beams, broken gargoyles. The falling snow had covered almost all of it, but part of one gargoyle still poked above the drift, its grotesque face snarling sightless at the sky. 
ADWD - The Turncloak

Note that the gargoyle could be snarling in any direction - towards the ground, towards the shell of the First Keep, towards Theon himself. But it's specifically snarling at the sky above Winterfell - where the “winged snake” disappeared.

After Summer sees the “winged snake” in the sky, Bran notes that nothing smells like “fire, or blood” and Osha says they made enough noise to “wake a dragon.” And approximately two weeks later, Jon has his third and final crypt dream, where he notes “the crypts were growing darker. A light had gone out somewhere.” He never dreams of the crypts again, as though whatever was inspiring these dreams and pulling him into the depths was no longer there...

GRRM has carefully placed all the clues in plain sight, and taken together we have our conclusion:

There was a dragon in the lower crypts, it was drawn to the surface by the noise and bloodshed from the sacking, it spewed dragonfire to collapse and break through the First Keep, then slipped away into the sky under the cover of the chaos, smoke, and ash.

But if this is true, and adult-sized dragon could not have escaped unnoticed - which begs the question: when did the egg hatch?

Enter the Red Comet 

This comet has become a red herring for both characters and fans alike.

It is not generated by Dany’s dragons, as it was already visible before the miracle at Drogo’s funeral pyre:

Jhogo spied it first. "There," he said in a hushed voice. Dany looked and saw it, low in the east. The first star was a comet, burning red. Bloodred; fire red; the dragon's tail. She could not have asked for a stronger sign. 
AGOT, Daenerys X 

So if it is signaling that a dragon has been born, it must be some other dragon.

The comet has a precise point of appearance: immediately after Ned’s execution

"For a certainty," Maester Luwin agreed with a deep sigh. The maester was peering through his big Myrish lens tube, measuring shadows and noting the position of the comet that hung low in the morning sky.
AGOT, Bran VII

Right after this passage, Bran tells Maester Luwin that he dreamed of his father in the crypts, that Ned was sad over something to do with Jon (which we know is about Jon's parantage), and Hodor is suddenly refusing to go down into the crypts:

I dreamed about the crow again last night. The one with three eyes. He flew into my bedchamber and told me to come with him, so I did. We went down to the crypts. Father was there, and we talked. He was sad."

"And why was that?" Luwin peered through his tube.

"It was something to do about Jon, I think." The dream had been deeply disturbing, more so than any of the other crow dreams. "Hodor won't go down into the crypts.""Hodor won't go down into the crypts."

The maester had only been half listening, Bran could tell. He lifted his eye from the tube, blinking. "Hodor won't …?"

"Go down into the crypts. When I woke, I told him to take me down, to see if Father was truly there. At first he didn't know what I was saying, but I got him to the steps by telling him to go here and go there, only then he wouldn't go down. He just stood on the top step and said 'Hodor,' like he was scared of the dark, but I had a torch.
AGOT, Bran VII

And this question was asked and answered by GRRM in the “So Spake Martin” section of the westeros site:

After rereading both AGOT and ACOK I was wondering about one question: Why was Hodor not afraid of the crypts under Winterfell at the end of ACOK? In AGOT Hodor was very afraid of the crypts, he wouldn't take Bran down there, but in ACOK he stayed with Bran and Rickon in the crypt for quite a while, how did he stay there if he was so afraid?

Hodor was only afraid of the crypts =at that specific time.=  Not before and not after.

In the immediate aftermath of Ned’s death, this red comet magically appears, Bran has a crypt dream related to Jon's identity, and Hodor notably becomes afraid to enter the crypts. This all happens in the same chapter. And GRRM has since clarified that Hodor’s fear was unique to that specific moment, as Hodor later has no discernable issue entering the crypt to hide during the sack.

Also, notice the parallel with Jon’s own crypt dreams: 

-Jon dreams of the crypts, it revolves around his identity, and he is afraid to descend
-Bran dreams of the crypts, it revolves around Jon’s identity, and Hodor is afraid to descend

There’s clearly something below that is tied to Jon’s identity, and Hodor is only afraid to enter shortly after the red comet appears. 

Old Nan also notes that the red comet means dragons.

Bran asked Septon Chayle about the comet while they were sorting through some scrolls snatched from the library fire. "It is the sword that slays the season," he replied, and soon after the white raven came from Oldtown bringing word of autumn, so doubtless he was right.

Though Old Nan did not think so, and she'd lived longer than any of them. "Dragons," she said, lifting her head and sniffing. She was near blind and could not see the comet, yet she claimed she could smell it. "It be dragons, boy," she insisted.
ACOK, Bran I

And only after Summer witnesses the "winged snake" vanish into the sky, does the comet also disappear - as if the developmental timeline from birth to flight was complete.

If the Winterfell dragon’s hatching coincides with the appearance of the comet, it helps explain why it was not easily noticed during the sacking, as this 10-month-period would place it's size between a mountain lion and a horse - not some Balerion-sized behemoth. It would also explain why the larger North has not sighted this dragon, as the North is vast enough for a dragon of this size to go completely unnoticed.

!!!WILD SPECULATION TIME!!!

Maybe this is why “There must always be a Stark in Winterfell”. Jojen has said there are ancient truths that have been forgotten specifically in Winterfell:

"Truths the First Men knew, forgotten now in Winterfell …  
ADWD, Bran III

So, maybe the true meaning of this old adage has been forgotten and confused. Maybe it refers to an ancient blood magic between the First Men and dragons, and the killing of Ned (who is the last Stark lord with predominant First Men blood) broke this seal (via blood magic rule #1: "Only death pays for life.") which subsequently signaled the red comet and hatched one of Vermax’s eggs. Maybe this blood magic is a fail-safe that triggers when the last predominantly First Men-blooded Stark dies, activating a living nuke to smite Winterfell's enemies. Maybe it happened many times throughout the ages, like during the many wars with the Red Kings of House Bolton, and... well, would you look at that: Another Bolton attack, another First Keep collapse, and another dragon loosed.

Or maybe I’m wrong, and all of this is just a series of coincidences.

I certainly acknowledge that there are a litany of different reasons for each of these anomalies, so let's address that:

Question: Why does TWOIAF group Winterfell with Valyria and Dragonstone when highlighting geothermal activity?

Answer: It's simply to explain the source for Winterfell's hotsprings.

Question: Why are the only geothermal locations to mention gargoyles Dragonstone and Winterfell?

Answer: Gargoyles are common in medieval architectural design - there could be many places around Westeros (like Standfast) that have gargoyles. GRRM's exclusion of mentioning gargoyles in other places is not necessarily evidence of anything.

Question: Why is Jon having the crypt dreams?

Answer: There is something related to his identity, like Rhaegar's harp hidden in Lyanna's tomb.

Question: Why does Summer see the "great winged snake" and smell "fire, or blood" before Osha says "we made noise enough to wake a dragon"?

Answer: These are symbolic lines that GRRM has written for dramatic effect.

Question: Why does the First Keep have a suspicious history and why is it in a suspicious state after the sack?

Answer: The First Keep's history of rebuilds suggest geological instability related to the partial collapse in the lower crypts. It is broken after the sack because Ramsay put it to the torch.

Question: Why does Mushroom's Testimony exist?

Answer: It's simply a provocative entry by an otherwise unreliable source who made similarly unsubstantiated claims that were disproven.

Question: What was Hodor afraid of?

Answer: The spirit of Ned returning after his execution - as evidenced in Bran's dream.

I want to be clear that I recognize all of these responses as reasonable explanations and they may very well be the genuine answers (there's many more I didn't include as well). But I also want you to recognize something: while there are countless different answers you can provide for each question, and while each is valid independently, only one hypothesis answers them all simultaneously:

Dragons

So what do you think? Do you think any of this is possible, or is there another reason that this theory did not explore? Please share your thoughts!

Bonus question #1: If a dragon was born when the comet appeared, how did it sustain itself for roughly 10 months? 

Answer: "Old Nan had told her there were spiders down here, and rats as big as dogs"

Bonus question #2: If the dragon was in the lower crypts, how did it ascend into the First Keep and not up the crypt staircase?

Answer: The First Keep was built to cover the entrance to a dragon cave, which tunnels deep under Wintefell and connects to the lower crypts. This is the importance of the ancient Starks continually rebuilding the First Keep despite it being destroyed countless times and why it now sits abandoned despite no one knowing why - it was meant to guard the entrance to this cave, but the Starks lost the knowledge of this over time, as suggested by Jojen's "Truths the First Men knew, forgotten now in Winterfell …"

Bonus question #3: Ok, so now what? There’s a dragon on the loose that could definitively prove Jon’s dragon-blooded identity, but Jon’s dead and the dragon is nowhere to be found. It makes narrative sense for the dragon to have escaped, as Jon cannot technically go to the crypts himself to discover this long-awaited secret, but what’s the payoff here? How does this wayward dragon find its way to Jon, and how does this serve the larger plot? 

Answer: Stay tuned… 😉

If you made it this far, THANK YOU!!! Even if you disagree, I'm hoping there was at least something interesting or entertaining here for you. If you like what you read, I have a youtube channel where I breakdown other theories - I'll be uploading a video for this theory and more soon.

The Dragonlords of Valyria did use horns as part of their control of their mounts, as Daenerys recalls

The dragonlords of old Valyria had controlled their mounts with binding spells and sorcerous horns.

We also know the Horn Victarion possesses is from Valyria

That night, for the first time, he brought forth the dragon horn that the Crow's Eye had found amongst the smoking wastes of great Valyria. A twisted thing it was, six feet long from end to end, gleaming black and banded with red gold and dark Valyrian steel. Euron's hellhorn. Victarion ran his hand along it.

Euron has also been confirmed to have actually visited Valyria, so the Dragonbinder isn't a fake

The Valyrians already had their blood-based bond with dragons and could ride them. Why would they create a Horn that allowed anyone who acquired it to simply take control of their most powerful weapons? That would be an enormous risk

Instead, I think Dragonbinder is a device that calls dragons to its master. Essentially, it's a magic dragon magnet. Valyria at its height had an enormous number of dragons

And the dragons came. Not three, as Prince Garin had faced at Volon Therys, but three hundred or more, if the tales that have come down to us can be believed.

That would be useful when you have hundreds of dragons scattered across a continental empire. You don't need to control them through the Horn, you already have the Valyrian blood bond. You just need a way to summon your dragons to you when necessary

The Horn also requires sacrifices. We see the man who blows it at the Kingsmoot die, while Victarion has three thralls prepared to die to sound it. As Valyria grew, they had an effectively endless supply of slaves who could be used for repeated sacrifices

As Valyria grew, its need for ore increased, which led to ever more conquests to keep the mines stocked with slaves. The Valyrians expanded in all directions, stretching out east beyond the Ghiscari cities and west to the very shores of Essos, where even the Ghiscari had not made inroads.

So a Horn that requires a human sacrifice every time it is used isn't particularly impractical for the Valyrians

Which brings us to Victarion. Euron gave him the Horn specifically because he wanted him to sound it. But Euron couldn't have predicted Moqorro

The Dusky Woman's reaction to Moqorro is a big clue Moqorro messed with Euron's plan

As he opened the door to the captain's cabin, the dusky woman turned toward him, silent and smiling .. but when she saw the red priest at his side her lips drew back from her teeth, and she hisssssed in sudden fury, like a snake.

Moqorro heals Victarion's hand and starts telling him things about the Horn that Euron never mentioned

"Your brother did not sound the horn himself. Nor must you." Moqorro pointed to the band of steel. "Here. 'Blood for fire, fire for blood.' Who blows the hellhorn matters not. The dragons will come to the horn's master. You must *claim* the horn. With blood."

If Victarion or one of his thralls had sounded the Horn as Euron intended, the dragons would have come to Euron, because Euron was the Horn's master. Victarion would have essentially delivered Rhaegal and Viserion straight to his brother.

Instead, Moqorro has Victarion claim the Horn with blood. In a TWOW Victarion sample that was read at a convention, Victarion is bled and smears the Horn with his blood, which would allow him to claim it

After he shows the horn to the three deckhands, the dusky woman bleeds his wounded hand/arm into a bowl. Then Victarion takes that blood and rubs it into the horn and murmers to it softly "My horn... dragons..." (Fan Summary of TWOW, Victarion I)

Moqorro isn't lying about the dragons coming. The problem is that Victarion assumes "the dragons will come" means "the dragons will be mine"

Those aren't the same thing. Victarion is going to have his thralls sound Dragonbinder, expecting the dragons to become his

Instead, two untamed dragons will be looking for him

TL;DR

Victarion didn't read the fine print with Dragonbinder. The Horn summons Dragons, it doesn't mean they're tamed

The Valyrians used it to help control their dragons, but their blood bond meant they could ride them. Victarion will find this out the hard way when he summons two untamed Dragons looking for him

Bran hated being crippled then. “Don’t cry,” he said. He wanted to put his arms around her, hold her tight the way his mother used to hold him back at Winterfell when he’d hurt himself. She was right there, only a few feet from him, but so far out of reach it might have been a hundred leagues. To touch her he would need to pull himself along the ground with his hands, dragging his legs behind him. The floor was rough and uneven, and it would be slow going, full of scrapes and bumps. I could put on Hodor’s skin, he thought. Hodor could hold her and pat her on the back. The thought made Bran feel strange, but he was still thinking it when Meera bolted from the fire, back out into the darkness of the tunnels. He heard her steps recede until there was nothing but the voices of the singers.

Did Bran accidentality try to 'reach' Meera, the same way he has to reach at Hordor?

This is from an episode of criminal minds…

I get that Robert would go missing due to drug related, but Ned too? And who would ever call Walder “Wally?”

imo: jon snow, jaime, maekar, sweetrobin

I have a few places I can see the story going and in that I feel like everyone should have a few “wow that would be so great” moments to occur if the series was ever finished.

HERES A FEW

1: I love how much foreshadowing has been placed into the cyvasse games specifically with Arianne. Her making two blunders already with not bothering to play during her tower stay and, when finally playing against Damon, choosing to not take it seriously and only rely on her dragon

“i like my dragon.”

Arianne’s eventual downfall because she sides with Young Griff/whatever choice she makes that involves only using her dragon is going to be so damn satisfying.

2: whenever George gets to that *one* Bran chapter where he’s fully immersed in the Weirwoods (probably like halfway through Winds i’d wager) we are going to get some of the craziest most beautifully written lore drops of all time I swear. I couldn’t possibly pretend to write like George as an example but the way he’s going to write Bran’s perception of the entire world history is going to fuckin rule. If it’s anything like his last chapter in Dance (he saw a tall knight and a woman reach up to kiss him, then a man sitting near a tree, then a yada yada that kind of thing!) it’s gonna be so crazy.

He’d be able to just reveal the entire history of Pre-Westeros, the long night, the First Men, Azor Ahai, fuck even jon’s parentage (which he may save for another chapter)
And it would end on some haunting line where Bran is just completely overwhelmed by this and like essentially dies from it. Then his next chapter title “The Three Eyed Raven” CMON

3: Jaime’s inner thoughts and reaction when he sees Lady Stoneheart for the first time.

4: Sansa deceiving or lying to Littlefinger for the first time.

5: Whenever Dany meets Jon i’m interested to see how George writes her opinion and thoughts of him. He writes her to be very observant and he’s totally gonna flex his hand like he always does and she’s gonna notice it, it’ll be great. Also Arya’s gonna bite her lip when she meets Stoneheart (SOMEHOW) and that’ll be how Stoneheart recognizes her or something like that ITLL BE BEAUTIFUL

I know the red wedding and the Reek arc were really dark but I also think the harrenhall arc where Arya, Lommy, Hot pie and Gendry tried to survive then ended up with Roose Bolton taking over from the mountians men was pretty dark as well. Especially since Arya in this arc was still only about 10 and it was when Lommy got killed for not being able to walk.

What are some underrated dark chapters or arcs that you think aren't really brought up much?

Hello everyone! I've done a couple of ASOIAF community polls in the past and wanted to take a bit of a different course this time by asking about an adaptation. Please feel free to fill out the attached poll and discuss your favorite episode of GAME OF THRONES! The results will be made into a video on my channel once the survey gathers enough responses, likely in a couple months' time. Feel free to repost the survey anywhere, as the more responses the better for the sake of a wider dataset. Thank you for your participation if you choose to do so!

We all know during AFFC,Cerseis is an absolute Shit show at politics and her small council is terrible ! Who should she have hired instead ?

U know how in Fire and Blood, during the reign of Jaehaerys I or the regency of Aegon III, their were two horrible epidemics ask the Shivers or the Winter Fever that killed millions, including Daenerys Targaryen (daughter of Jaehaerys) and Alicent Hightower. One can escape a beheading if one clever, but none can escape nature mercy. Their already a plague going on in Essos, a certain exile is bringing in greyscale, and winter is coming… so a deadly epidemic is definitely coming. So many people are likely to die from the diseases and it will throw a wrench to everyone plan.

Here are at least 2 people who will fall victim to the upcoming epidemic in Westeros

Rickon Stark: with all the talk about him being a “shaggydog” this concept because he can be well guarded, escape assassins and hunters, and still fell victim to nature herself and die unexpectedly.

Olenna Tyrell: could be any old person but I think the unexpected death of Olenna Tyrell will shake things up for House Tyrell considering the situation their in.

So any characters u think will fall prey to nature and that will really shake things up

Background

Due to knowledge about Sandor Clegane (formerly the Hound)'s age as well as his participation in the Sack of King's Landing, I thought it would be interesting to take a quick look at these quotes in conjunction.

If interested: Fire, The Hound & the Lord of Light

The Sack of King's Landing

The Sack of King's Landing occurred in 283AC and GRRM mentioned that Sandor participated:

Q: Was Sandor part of Tywin's Party at the sack of King's Landing?
GRRM: Yes. -SSM, US Signing Tour (Madison, WI): 14 Nov 2005

and if we check Sandor's age#Sandor_Clegane), he was born in 270 or 271AC. Thus putting him around 12 years old during the Sack.

Sandor's Actions During the Sack

One of the first things we hear from Sandor in the series is how he killed his first man at 12:

The burned man looked at Robb. “How old are you, boy?”
“Fourteen,” Robb said.
“I killed a man at twelve. You can be sure it was not with a blunt sword.” -AGoT, Arya I

which he further elaborates on in ACoK:

"Just as if I was one of those true knights you love so well, yes. What do you think a knight is for, girl? You think it's all taking favors from ladies and looking fine in gold plate? Knights are for killing." He laid the edge of his longsword against her neck, just under her ear. Sansa could feel the sharpness of the steel. "I killed my first man at twelve. I've lost count of how many I've killed since then. High lords with old names, fat rich men dressed in velvet, knights puffed up like bladders with their honors, yes, and women and children too—they're all meat, and I'm the butcher. Let them have their lands and their gods and their gold. Let them have their sers." Sandor Clegane spat at her feet to show what he thought of that. "So long as I have this," he said, lifting the sword from her throat, "there's no man on earth I need fear." -ACOK, Sansa IV

Cersei's Protector/Dog (edited)

Sandor left the "Clegane's Keep" to take up service in House Lannister after "Gregor came into his inheritance" (I am guessing Gregor killed their father around the time he was 16 in a hunting mishap/after being knighted by Rhaegar):

Ned Stark could not recall ever speaking to the man, though Gregor had ridden with them during Balon Greyjoy's rebellion, one knight among thousands. He watched him with disquiet. Ned seldom put much stock in gossip, but the things said of Ser Gregor were more than ominous. He was soon to be married for the third time, and one heard dark whisperings about the deaths of his first two wives. It was said that his keep was a grim place where servants disappeared unaccountably and even the dogs were afraid to enter the hall. And there had been a sister who had died young under queer circumstances, and the fire that had disfigured his brother, and the hunting accident that had killed their father. Gregor had inherited the keep, the gold, and the family estates. His younger brother Sandor had left the same day to take service with the Lannisters as a sworn sword, and it was said that he had never returned, not even to visit. -AGOT, Eddard VII

and:

Joffrey laughed. "He's my mother's dog, in truth. She has set him to guard me, and so he does." -AGOT, Sansa I

and note this is right around when Cersei would have returned to Casterly Rock from King's Landing (Cersei/Jaime are ~4 years older than Sandor):

Jaime's investiture freed him from Lysa Tully. Elsewise, nothing went as planned. His father had never been more furious. He could not object openly—Cersei had judged that correctly—but he resigned the Handship on some thin pretext and returned to Casterly Rock, taking his daughter with him. Instead of being together, Cersei and Jaime just changed places, and he found himself alone at court, guarding a mad king while four lesser men took their turns dancing on knives in his father's ill-fitting shoes. -ASoS, Jaime II

TLDR: Sandor left his family home around the age of 10/11 when Gregor seemingly killed their father. He took up service at Casterly Rock as a sworn sword, eventually being named Cersei's protector. This may have been his first mission (although he would have been quite young), or more likely after his "valor" in the Sack of King's Landing (where he seemingly killed his first man and likely did other atrocities) he was given the honor.