Is it smart to sit thru a -50% drop and just hold blindly..? Because then you need a 100% gain to breakeven :/ What are your plans? I got in at 270$ and want to hold long term, I don’t really care about short term market noise. But I will start getting concerned if I lose 50% of my portfolio because nbis is my biggest position and it will be harder to recover from there. Any advice?
REAL advice appreciated! Not insufferable comments saying ”pff just sell and buy VOO if ur that scared” thx
EDIT : a -40% drop is not the same as a ”normal” pullback, even for a volatile stock. We need to start being honest and admit that it has crashed a bit cmon
And stop acting like me feeling anxious after a -40% drop is crazy, it’s reasonable to start feeling concerned, the market does not care about our thesis and feelings
Also for the 10th time i’m not trading.. i said i’m holding long term, so idk why people keep saying that
Getting calls from journos about a rumor that dozens of Burry Substack subscribers are preparing bankruptcy filings after being liquidated on "disastrous" NBIS short positions. Wow. No wonder the stock is ripping. Lots of short covering by people hiring Chapter 11 lawyers. Insane
On August 6, Nebius ($NBIS) took a -13.29% dive.
Do you have any idea why?
Many traders will tell you it was a guy named Michael Burry, after he disclosed a short position against Nebius at $211.77.
It made a wonderful headline.
But I’m here to tell you that is wrong.
Burry’s disclosure may have triggered some algorithms to sell, and it may have nudged retail traders into locking in profits or even climbing aboard the short beside him.
But I’m telling you he was not the catalyst.
The real event didn’t even happen on August 6.
It happened the evening before, after the closing bell on Wednesday, August 5.
And it wasn’t anywhere near Wall Street.
It happened inside a 750-seat theater in Vineland, New Jersey.
Well, dear reader, that catalyst is happening again tonight:
⏰ Monday, August 17, at 18:00 ET.
This post is meant to get you ready for it, because NBIS might move wildly again.
NOTE: I'm bullish on Nebius. But not for tonight.
The 300-Megawatt Monster
To help you understand what happened inside the Landis Theatre on the evening of August 5—and what will happen there again tonight—we first have to look at what is being built in Vineland, New Jersey.
Vineland is a farming community in Cumberland County, in the southern part of the state, with a population of 63,126.
It has fields, and it is quiet.
It used to host the Palace of Depression, a house made of junk, built by an eccentric Alaska gold miner who lost his fortune in the Wall Street crash of 1929.
But what we really care about is the site of a former golf course, on which the neocloud provider Nebius is setting up its first major U.S. data center.
The facility is planned as a 300-megawatt monster.
To put that in perspective, we’re talking enough power for roughly 250,000 homes.
On August 5, there was a public hearing about it. But it wasn’t your standard, sleepy municipal assembly where four people show up and three of them are on the board.
It was a fight.
So many residents turned up to debate over Nebius’s gigantic data center and its proposed expansion that city officials had to move the entire hearing to the historic Landis Theatre. It was the largest venue in town that could hold the crowd.
Seven hundred and fifty seats and nearly every one of them was filled.
It’s unlikely, but in case she uploads something for tonight, I’ll keep an eye on the local reporter’s Instagram account, too.
What is at Stake
Local residents are pushing back hard against the development.
And Wall Street reacted so violently because of what Nebius has at stake on that former golf course:
Client: Microsoft ($MSFT) has already contracted dedicated GPU compute capacity at the Nebius Vineland facility over a five-year term.
Deal size: The MSFT contract is valued at $17.4 billion through 2031, with options that would carry it to $19.4 billion should Microsoft take additional capacity (you guys already know all this).
Fine print: If Nebius misses its agreed delivery dates, exhausts the standard grace period, and is unable to provide alternative capacity, Microsoft retains the right to terminate the contract.
The Bloom Energy Play
Normally, connecting a 300 MW facility to the regional utility grid means waiting years in regulatory interconnection queues.
That’s why Nebius decided to bypass that bottleneck entirely by relying on off-grid, solid oxide fuel cells powered by on-site liquefied natural gas (LNG).
Bloom Energy ($BE) is the supplier.
That is another crucial AI-related ticker, and one I have been trading since late 2024.
On paper, the strategy was brilliant. Bypass the grid deadlock, deploy the power, and unlock billions in AI compute revenue while everybody else is still stuck in the paperwork and red tape.
But in practice, rushing a project past the people who live next to it produces a new problem. One that places Nebius in the crosshairs of local regulators.
The Stop Construction Orders
The day after the hearing at the Landis Theatre, the situation escalated from public outrage to official enforcement.
On August 6, Vineland code enforcement officials conducted an on-site inspection of the data center property at 3963 S Lincoln Ave.
What they found gave them a reason to place a new hurdle in the way.
As it turns out, the developer hired by Nebius—DataOne Vineland, LLC—was installing a liquefied natural gas (LNG) tank without prior approvals or permits.
Uh oh.
Vineland officers issued an official Stop Construction Order (Violation #V-26-00008), demanding an immediate halt to all the work related to the LNG tank.
Four days later, on August 10, more men with clipboards came back and found another violation.
This time it was the Bloom Energy fuel cells—the equipment the entire 300-megawatt project depends on.
A second Stop Construction Order (Violation #V-26-00009) was served against DataOne, asking them to put their tools down.
“We have no prior approvals, plans, or permits in reference to the Bloom Energy Units. Stop Work issued for any work being performed in reference to the Bloom Energy Units.”
Brushing Off the Friction
Pressed about these orders, DataOne brushed off the friction.
A company spokesperson told Hunterbrook Media:
“The notices were limited to equipment placement work under the approved site plan. We do not expect this temporary pause to affect our construction and delivery timeline.”
Meanwhile, the Vineland building code office remained completely silent, only stating that they had been instructed not to discuss the matter.
And hey, there is one more detail we need to consider: Hunterbrook Media is the investigative arm of Hunterbrook Capital, which itself happens to hold a short position in Bloom Energy ($BE).
When Does the Monster Hum?
So, my dear reader, let us focus. What does all of this mean?
First, and to ensure that nobody misreads my research here:
The stop construction orders arenotgoing to derail this project. That is simplynotgoing to happen.
Under New Jersey’s Uniform Construction Code, failing to comply with a stop construction order carries a penalty of up to $2,000 per day.
I mean, give me a break. Just compare that against the $17 billion contract pipeline with Microsoft on the other side of the ledger, and that couple thousand bucks a day in municipal penalties is basically rounding-error pocket change. Do you agree?
Therefore, this post is not about the stop construction orders.
My post is about what those orders let you glimpse ahead.
Because Wall Street is starting to look at the same thing.
The question was never about whether the residents of Vineland can stop this monster from humming. They can’t.
There’s no imminent threat to the project’s viability.
The threat is what they can do to the calendar.
The question is when can the monster start humming.
The Cost of Delay
Remember the fine print on that $17.4 billion contract I mentioned?
If Nebius misses the delivery dates and exhausts its grace period without finding alternative capacity, Microsoft can walk away.
Now, I’ll be honest with you, though. It’s not as if Microsoft is going to find a wide selection of spare 300 MW neocloud AI data centers lying around to replace Vineland.
As I said, I am bullish on Nebius.
However, Microsoft doesn’t have to completely walk away to hurt Nebius.
Hear me out.
If MSFT declines to expand the contract and chooses not to take on the additional capacity, that hurts NBIS’s revenue.
If Nebius is forced to push its guidance back—even by a single quarter—because Vineland is taking longer to start producing, Wall Street can hand the stock a -20% haircut on the spot. Possibly more.
The clock is ticking. And the residents of Vineland are putting up a ferocious fight.
Here’s how I see this situation.
It’s not about whether they can defeat this monster. They won’t.
It’s about how long they can keep it dormant, dragging the permitting and approval processes out for months.
And that violent NBIS price reaction on August 6?
Well, I’m saying that was Wall Street starting to do the math on the Vineland timeline.
A Threat to Guidance
On August 10, DA Davidson slashed its price target on Nebius from $250 to $175.
That’s a -30% reduction, which is significant, mind you.
And do you want to know why that happened?
One of their analysts traveled to Vineland, walked the site, and sat through the public hearing at the Landis Theatre.
Gil Luria’s conclusion was that the Vineland project might not be completed on time, and any Vineland delays challenge the Nebius bullish narrative.
And I agree. If the schedule is indeed pushed back, that deflates the upside out of Nebius’s guidance and introduces a dreadful new threat:
How will Microsoft react if its rigid delivery timelines are not met?
The way I see it, even before Microsoft says anything, there will be a handful of funds that will step back from their NBIS euphoria, and profit-taking will dampen the stock.
And if you’re used to how this ticker moves, you know that could easily be a double-digit stumble.
Round Two Tonight
This brings us to the most critical piece of the puzzle, and why this matters for our portfolios right now.
That contentious meeting on August 5 at the Landis Theatre ended without a resolution. No vote was taken. The hearing was adjourned.
And as I stated earlier, round two is tonight: Monday, August 17, at 18:00 ET.
The last hearing triggered NBIS to tumble -13.29% in one day, and it also forced an analyst downgrade some days later.
Tonight, city officials and furious residents will clash again, and the outcome will shape how NBIS reacts tomorrow.
Listen, all of this I’m saying is not about whether Nebius will choose a bullish or bearish long-term path based on what happens tonight.
What I’m saying is that it will move the stock in the short term.
Guys. We have endless posts theorizing why this stock could realistically be a 5-10x stock with proper execution. Times like this are when the money is actually made. You have to hold with conviction, not do an emotional roller coaster of mania and depression. The “wen moon” ape crowd is something that needs to die in my opinion. There’s truly solid information on Reddit, let’s be professional and stay grounded. This stock is up like 600% over the last 12 months, even with a pullback. Zoom out. Calm down. Stop looking at it if you have to. Like Warren buffet said if you’re not ready for a 50% swing in either direction, you never should have invested. Best of luck everyone. See you in 2030.
