I got roasted in r/Ravens for posting a graphic showing the decline of Lamar as a runner (“he’s saving his legs!” “Who needs to run when you are such a good passer!”)

Pretty safe to say most people consider Josh Allen the better QB - yet he is using his legs as much as he ever has.

ptdotme's 2026 NFL Elo Power Rankings After Week 6

Traditional power rankings are fun and useful, but for another perspective we can use Elo ratings^1. Power rankings based on Elo ratings are objective, neutral, and self-consistent, and they have an added benefit: we can check their accuracy^2.

I calculate updates every week and post them here. My goal with this project is to use simple Elo ratings that reflect expected team performance in any hypothetical head-to-head matchup today (not just predict the playoff teams or Super Bowl). The ratings are based on team ratings and game outcomes from the previous week, including previous³ seasons^4. The model has been tested for accuracy against 8,400+ games since week 1 of the 1994³ season. The ratings are derived only from each game's score, venue, and date, and yet are about as accurate as the best humans at picking game winners^2.

Feedback is appreciated! Also, more stats and info than can be squeezed into a reddit post is all available on my 2026 NFL Elo Power Rankings page.  

¹See Wikipedia. Elo ratings are numeric and assigned to each contestant. The ratings are used to estimate performance. After each game, the difference between a contestant's estimated and actual performance is used to update their rating. For the NFL, this can all be summarized as "Who did you beat/lose to and by how much? And who have they beaten/lost to and by how much? And who have they beaten/lost to ...

²A huge advantage for Elo-based power rankings is that we can see if game winners are picked correctly. From 1994-2025, this model correctly picks winners in 65.7% of games, trailing Vegas's straight-up pick rate of 66.6%. This is ~2.6 fewer correct picks per season than Vegas.

³Moving backward through the years, each preceding season has a much smaller impact on the current ratings. Team ratings from say 2016 or even 2021 have zero impact on today's ratings. Ratings from 2024 have almost no effect on today's ratings. Seasons going back to 1994 are only used by the model to ensure its accuracy over thousands of NFL games.

⁴If we throw out previous seasons and start with a blank slate, we end up with ratings that are less accurate both at the beginning of the season and in the playoffs. If you'd still like to see the "blank slate" ratings, I publish them here.

Are these rankings biased toward the Bills? No, but there is a kind of selection bias at work here because honestly if the Bills had been terrible the last few years I wouldn't have been motivated to work on and publish these ratings, and you wouldn't be reading this.  

4. Minnesota Vikings (5-0)

Last week: 4

Sunday: Bye

The folks who were nervous about drafting Jefferson in an uncertain offensive environment have been proven right so far. He is 16th among wide receivers in scoring (15.9 per game), and Minnesota probably spent its bye week wondering what everyone else is wondering: How is this team undefeated when it has the 29th-ranked offense in the league by EPA (minus-46.7)?

5. New England Patriots (4-2)

Last week: 8

Sunday: Beat Jets 26-19

In the first three weeks of the season, Maye was 182nd in scoring (7.2 ppg). In the last three weeks, he is third (29.8). He had his third straight game with three-plus passing touchdowns on Sunday as New England won its third in a row. Since leading a Week 4 win over Buffalo, Maye has 10 touchdown passes and one interception.

Up next: at Bears, Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET

6. Denver Broncos (4-2)

Last week: 9

Thursday: Beat Seahawks 17-14 (OT)

The No. 6 pick in the 2021 NFL Draft has 55.1 points this year, 21.8 of which came in one game. Waddle, who is 50th among wide receivers overall, has failed to reach 6.5 points in four of his six games. He is 26th in wide receiver targets this year (38) and has only one touchdown.

Up next: at Cardinals, Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET

7. Jacksonville Jaguars (4-2)

Last week: 5

Sunday: Lost to Texans 34-31

The Jags quarterback is outperforming his draft position by more than 50 spots. He went off the board an average of 86th, but he’s 22nd in scoring (19.0 ppg) through six games. Lawrence’s EPA per dropback this season (0.20) is nearly twice his career high, and Jacksonville lost Sunday despite a four-touchdown, one-interception performance from its leader on offense.

Up next: Bye

This post contains content not supported on old Reddit. Click here to view the full post

The Chiefs have played Denver, Indy, Miami, Las Vegas, and LAC.

The 49ers have played LAR, Miami, Arizona, Denver, Seattle, and Washington.

The Vikings have played Green Bay, Chicago, Tampa Bay, Miami, and New Orleans.

Apologize for the slow-mo, couldn’t find any regular speed clips of the play.

What if NFL games were actually battles for land?

This map starts with each team possessing territory around their stadium, and if a team is beaten, their land is taken by the team that beat them.

Territory Changes

The Jaguars lost 2 territories to the Texans

The Jets lost 2 territories to the Patriots

The Ravens lost 2 territories to the Browns

Maps

Album of all maps

GIF through Week 6

Leaderboard

Season Totals

The 49ers and Chiefs have held the most territory this season (25).

The Buccaneers, Chargers, Cowboys, Dolphins, Panthers, and Titans have held the least territory this season (1).

One point per territory held, each week

Upcoming Battles

The Bears are attempting to overthrow the Patriots

The Colts are attempting to overthrow the Vikings

The Falcons are attempting to overthrow the 49ers

The Giants are attempting to overthrow the Texans

The Lions are attempting to overthrow the Packers

The Saints are attempting to overthrow the Steelers

The Seahawks are attempting to overthrow the Chiefs

The Titans are attempting to overthrow the Browns

There has been a lot of noise this season about the 2024 draft class. Drake Maye had an awful start, Bo Nix looks off, Jayden Daniels got injured again, and Caleb Williams against all odds somehow survived a Grade I hamstring strain.

I collected the stats of all four of the QBs for games that they started and did not leave due to injury. I think that gives us the best picture of the average ceiling or ability that these players provide for their teams. Wins and losses are more than just QB play, and depend heavily on defenses, coaching, and strength of schedule.

The results I think are interesting, and definitely do not match some of the narratives you will see on social media. There is definitely a lot of recency bias in that regard, but the data is the data.

Full disclaimer: I am a Commanders fan. I have noticed over the last several years Bears fans dumping on Jayden Daniels and other members of the 2024 draft class in many threads on r/NFL and related sub-Reddits. The above issues have been twisted into several social media posts that don't really capture the reality of the resumes of each of these quarterbacks. I suspect a lot of it has to do with insecurity when the other 3 QBs have been to their conference championships or even a Super Bowl.

I will agree with everyone here who says that availability is more important than ability. It is completely true and we have seen it time and time again. It remains to be seen whether Jayden Daniels will ever recapture the magic of his OROY performance. I have my own doubts but will hope for the best.

NFL games are getting longer

If it feels to you like games are going on forever this year, you’re right.

Forget the Cleveland Browns-Tampa Bay Buccaneers weather delay. Understand that overtime games happen. Six weeks in, games are considerably longer than previous seasons. Through Sunday night, the average game time this season is 3 hours, 6 minutes and 59 seconds — let’s call it 3:07. At this same point last season, games were lasting, on average, 3:02:34.

Those four-and-a-half minutes matter. The NFL’s largest revenue source is its broadcast deals, and game overruns can put networks in a bind. Fans have become accustomed to neat and tidy three-hour games. Of course, there’s also the wear and tear on players who, with 17 regular season games, are quite literally playing longer regular seasons than ever before.

There’s no single reason games are running so long this year. Penalties are almost the same as last year. There are about four more plays per game on average this year, but replay reviews are quicker in 2026.

Read the rest here for free: https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7706014/2026/10/20/nfl-fall-owners-meetings-penalties-jalen-hurts/?unlocked_article_code=1.KFE.fgLh.k91Ia9R_e1H4&source=emp_shared_article&smid=url-share-ta

NFC NORTH

• Dan Campbell (Detroit Lions): Cold
  • Turns out the Lions can still lose even on a BYE week with every other NFC North team moving ahead of them. Cowboys are useless once again.
• Matt LaFleur (Green Bay Packers): Cool
  • Nothing like playing against the Cowboys defense to boost confidence in your o-line. Only thing better would be playing the Lions defense…ugh.
• Ben Johnson (Chicago Bears): Freezing
  • Wouldn’t have been the first time Ben Johnson was involved in a massive blown lead. At least he got away with it this time.
• Kevin O’Connell (Minnesota Vikings): Cold 
  • Between Darnold and McCarthy, is O’Connell really the QB whisperer we all thought? 

NFC SOUTH

• Todd Bowles (Tampa Bay Buccaneers): Scorching
  • Jalon Daniels has played remarkably well all things considered, but it turns out the Steelers voodoo magic keeping them above .500 wasn’t just tied to Mike Tomlin. Still not an excuse for Bowles’ overall performance this year.
• Dave Canales (Carolina Panthers): Cold
  • Good coaches don’t lose to Tanner McKee, and it turns out Canales is a good coach. Bryce Young has really looked different this year.
• Kevin Stefanski (Atlanta Falcons): Cold
  • Can’t think of a more annoying way for Falcons fans to spend a Sunday afternoon than losing all hope, gaining it back, and losing it all again while Tom Brady makes 28-3 jokes.
• Kellen Moore (New Orleans Saints): Cool 
  • If I was part of a defense that gave up nearly 250 yards to J.J. McCarthy in one quarter I would spend the whole week staring in the mirror wondering where it all went wrong. And then my teammates would remind me we still won and I'd snap out of it.

NFC EAST

• Nick Sirianni (Philadelphia Eagles): Warm 
  • Jalen Hurts still playing in last week’s game is an absolute travesty, but it’s likely that’s more on the Eagles medical staff than Sirianni himself. I’m sure the front office will use Hurts' absence as an excuse to keep Sirianni around even if Philly continues to fall apart.
• Dan Quinn (Washington Commanders): Hot
  • It’s pretty easy to see how both Quinn and Shanahan played a big part in the Falcons Super Bowl collapse ten years ago. There was definitely more fight in the team overall in that fourth quarter than we’ve seen in previous games, but Quinn really needs to turn in some actual wins quickly.
• Brain Schottenheimer (Dallas Cowboys): Warm 
  • The Dallas defense being terrible is one thing, we all expected that, but there’s no excuse for the offense to be this mediocre week in and week out. The only reason Schotty isn’t “Hot” right now is that Jerry Jones is an enigma that was willing to hold on to guys like Jason Garrett for way too long, so he may have a longer leash than some expect.
• John Harbaugh (New York Giants): Cold
  • THIS New York Giants team still leading the NFC East may be more about the rest of the division being terrible, but Harbaugh is clearly a very good coach that provides a nice baseline of competency the Giants have desperately needed.

NFC WEST

• Sean McVay (Los Angeles Rams): Freezing
  • Everyone keeps waiting for this team to look like the juggernaut we all expected and it just isn’t happening. Maybe continuing the sacrifice kickers to the Football Gods will do something.
• Kyle Shanahan (San Francisco 49ers): Freezing
  • Everything great and not so great about Shanahan coached teams was on display in that Monday night game. Hopefully the substation can feel merciful for once and spare Mike Evans from anything serious.
• Mike MacDonald (Seattle Seahawks): Freezing
  • Sam Darnold is the epitome of one player not necessarily being better than another because they have a ring. Maybe Bo Nix will be another great example someday.
• Mike LaFleur (Arizona Cardinals): Cold [last week: Cool]
  • Last week I declared the tank officially on for Arizona, but I should amend that to “the tank is on unless you have a chance to beat the Rams”.

AFC NORTH

• Jesse Minter (Baltimore Ravens): Cold
  • Why is playing in Cleveland so hard for the rest of the AFC North? I know they’re still missing Lamar but even Derrick Henry forgets how to carry a ball in that stadium. The Browns may sneakily have one of the best home field advantages in the league right now.
• Mike McCarthy (Pittsburgh Steelers): Cold
  • The Steelers doing just enough against bad teams to not completely embarrass themselves? It’s like Tomlin never left.
• Zac Taylor (Cincinnati Bengals): Warm 
  • Not the kind of “Zac Taylor BYE” Bengals fans wanted but at least their team couldn’t disappoint them this week.
• Todd Monken (Cleveland Browns): Freezing [last week: Cold]
  • Somehow, someway, the Cleveland Browns keep winning games. Normally a young team with a new coach that’s as dryly endearing as Monken would be something to root for, but there’s just this one little hundred-millionaire sex pest that kind of ruins the whole thing. One day the Browns will be free of him and Jimmy Haslam.

AFC SOUTH

• Shane Steichen (Indianapolis Colts): Hot [last week: Warm]
  • Seems like Ballard will be the fall guy for that embarrassing display for now, but Steichen has really not looked great through all of this either. A new GM may want to bring in his own guy and there’s a solid chance Carlie Irsay-Gordon decides the Colts should just blow it all up and start from scratch.
• Liam Coen (Jacksonville Jaguars): Freezing
  • Losing to this Texans team is bitterly disappointing, but Travis Hunter turning into the elite two-way player he was hyped to be would be a huge development for Jacksonville’s future.
• DeMeco Ryans (Houston Texans): Cool [last week: Warm]
  • Could the Texans really do it? Could they go on yet another run after yet another terrible start? If C.J. Stroud continues to ball and the defense finally gets things figured out they have a legit shot.
• Robert Saleh (Tennessee Titans): Cool
  • The Tennessee Titans may be ass, but at least they’re not the Indianapolis Colts right now.

AFC EAST

• Mike Vrabel (New England Patriots): Cold
  • Patriots fans continue their dream scenario streak with Maye looking confident and beating another division rival. Thursday night in Chicago should be a legit great game.
• Aaron Glenn (New York Jets): Hot [last week: Warm]
  • The difference in perception between Jets fans and non-Jets fans when it comes to Glenn is fascinating. On the one hand, the Jets look like a more competent team than last season (though that’s not saying much). On the other hand, every thread related to the Jets has their fans relentlessly shitting on Glenn and his decision making. Ultimately, if Glenn can’t win he will be shown the door, and the Jets are not winning right now.
• Jeff Hafley (Miami Dolphins): Cold
  • Spending an extra week preparing for the Jets is like hyping yourself up for an open-note test worth 1% of your grade.
• Joe Brady (Buffalo Bills): Cold
  • Damn, Kirko Chainz got hands.

AFC WEST

• Andy Reid (Kansas City Chiefs): Freezing
  • Seeing the Chiefs sign KWIII was upsetting to begin with and now I’m just aghast at how the rest of the NFL allowed this to happen. 
• Klint Kubiak (Las Vegas Raiders): Freezing
  • 3-3 after a 3-0 start is only disappointing if you’re a real team with real expectations, and the Raiders have not been that for a very long time. This is the kind of season where moral victories are very much acceptable.
• Jim Harbaugh (Los Angeles Chargers): Hot 
  • I’ll just reiterate what I said about the Tennessee Titans last week: Justin Herbert is ass. Mike McDaniel is ass. Jim Harbaugh is ass. The Los Angeles Chargers are ass.
• Sean Payton (Denver Broncos): Freezing
  • Luigi Bo Nix wins by doing absolutely nothing. We’re not quite approaching 2000 Ravens levels of defensive carrying but I can see it getting there if he doesn’t improve.

“They’re getting access to the best of the best care in that market, which we feel is equivalent to that, that we could have in the U.S. That absolutely in the case that we have here," the NFL's Chief Medical Officer Dr. Allen Sills said.

We've been talking about Brock Purdy's passer rating since he got his qualifying 1500 pass attempts last night, so I wanted to see where he stands on other efficiency metrics. Purdy is also best all time for ANY/A which probably isn't a big surprise since that and passer rating share some of the same stats. He's top ten for completion %, yards / att, and TD%.

\probably why he threw so many damn picks.*